has the hivemind new episode market nuke correlation curse been lifted?
uploads will continue until morale improves
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether the worst of the selloff is over, how the Anthropic IPO could trade, why stocks onchain have stalled and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:45 Is the Worst Behind Us?
07:48 Why the Macro Models Are Cautious
10:25 The Nvidia Wild Card
16:11 Never Sell the Singularity
19:23 AI Stocks at COVID-Low Valuations
24:33 Meta's AI Bet Is Priced at Zero
28:01 How the Anthropic IPO Could Trade
34:00 Will Anthropic Wipe Out SPV Buyers?
38:04 The Mystery Morning Seller
39:42 ZEC in the Wall Street Journal
41:14 Why Stocks OnChain Stalled
44:28 Can Elysium Skip the Launchpad Trap?
50:48 Is ETH's Store of Value a Hail Mary?
56:14 MegaETH Pivots to AI Inference
Wall Street wants in on Hyperliquid. So why isn’t its broader onchain ecosystem thriving?
Our Kinetiq report anchors around that question.
Hyperliquid made $818M in revenue in 2025. It has built an exchange people clearly want to use.
The institutional appetite for its infrastructure looks unprecedented for an onchain exchange.
ICE partnered with TradeXYZ for proposed US markets. Payward will deploy HIP-3* markets. Druckenmiller invested in TradeXYZ.
Yet HyperEVM, where developers can build apps around the exchange, seems underdeveloped.
That’s striking because HyperCore gives those builders something valuable: established markets whose prices, liquidity, and trading functionality can become part of other financial products.
That composability opens possibilities well beyond what users can do through the exchange alone.
So is the demand simply missing?
Perhaps.
But limited capacity, fee spikes, and complicated plumbing between apps and HyperCore have made building difficult.
So surely some teams may have built elsewhere or shelved ideas that looked too expensive to operate.
Users cannot discover products that nobody finds worthwhile to build.
So rather than confidently saying there’s no demand, I’d prefer to think appetite for what those builders could create around HyperCore remains untested.
Kinetiq’s Elysium aims to give them a more conducive environment to build.
There may also be an audience ready to experiment. HYPE whales might welcome avenues to speculate and more interesting ways to put their capital to work. Their participation could help new apps establish liquidity and, in turn, attract new users.
Of course, neither HYPE wealth nor better infrastructure guarantees sustained demand.
But “users don’t want this” and “users haven’t had a compelling version to try” lead to very different conclusions.
Hyperliquid has already shown what happens when traders find a product they love. @Enter_Elysium gives builders room to discover what brings the next wave.
7
542
social trading continues to be one of the worst things to catch traction
its clear to anyone who has actually participated in markets what games are being played here
Pumpfun is paying people millions of dollars to "callout" coins and if you don't sell the +6% one-minute candle spike higher, then you're likely down -48% just one hour later?
this is such an insane chart
1
11
942
jason 🎢 retweeted
I've been looking for confirmation from market price signals for the recent hard roll over in our global growth leading indicator; AUDJPY is a pretty good cyclical barometer given it pairs a commodity + China sensitive currency versus a more 'safe haven' + primary funding currency for carry trades.
Historically AUDJPY been a good cyclical indicator in its own right (buy at lows and selling at highs has been a good trade) (first chart).
But when your overlay it with our Global Growth Leading Indicator, moments when the AUDJPY starts to roll over after a period of material strength AND our growth LEI is materially rolling over, this has been a pretty decent sell / de-risking signal (second chart).
with projects getting ready to launch on elysium and onchain activity already occurring before the official, its worth revisiting this, specifically wrt alignment ethos. will be interesting to see if this idea plays out or if it doesnt matter much at all
as ive said, my plan to play the hype szn/elysium szn is through KNTQ and HYPE
obviously there will be memes and the normal onchain ponzi extractive games where KOLs begin shilling 6-7fig market cap coins with 400k liquidity. seeing this already.
but i implore people to look past the nonsense and not miss the obvious lay ups
some friday food for thoughts
each main chain has its own identity in a way
ETH ppl are different from SOL ppl which are different from HYPE ppl (common denominator is the wealth effect and patron of the chain type mentality around each cohort)
based on what the chain espouses governs what the people in that ecosystem are likely to accept as the norm
for example: you had the whole ETH <> ETH alignment thing, but moreso the whole push for real decentralization despite the tradeoffs
SOL was more just about being fast and a good place to speculate on chain, and you see it with the breakout apps (ex pump)
so what is HYPE's identity?
hyperliquid:native 's identity, imo, is *actually* alignment. jeff laid the blueprint/ethos about what the bar is for hyperliquid's identity in that they return full value to tokenholders via hype buybacks
anybody trying to build out core infra on hypeevm probably needs to have that same ethos at a bare minium or will be outcompeted by people that do
you're seeing this with kinetiq:native and recent ascend launchpad announcement
what do you think?
been talking about this for a while. KOL, social trading, etc. all parasitic cancerous tumors to the industry
CT culture has devolved into normalizing some of the worst behaviors
bring back the days where we ostracized people for obvious grifting
bring back the days where we called people out for shilling low cap shitters to their million followers
bring back the days where we laughed at paid group leaders who have never provided a single auditable piece of proof that they can actually do what they claim to teach you about markets
One of crypto's largest KOLs has been secretly extracting millions from his audience
We’ll expose him soon
Unfortunately, he’s just a symptom of a much bigger problem
Social trading has brought out the worst in KOLs. It was designed to keep them honest by making every trade public. In reality, the opposite happened
In just a few weeks, we exposed a number of "top social traders" using the same tricks:
• Public wallets to attract copy traders
• Side wallets to dump
• Callouts to farm rewards
• Bundled tokens to hide supply
And there are plenty more doing the exact same thing
Why? Because our industry incentivizes it
1) Launchpads allow it
Most launchpads today are obsessed with one thing: volume. Millions in callout rewards, affiliate links, and top leaderboards. Almost nothing on detecting bundles, side wallets, or shady traders. Scams drive volume. Launchpads have no reason to stop it (other than actually caring about their users)
2) Social trading incentivizes it
Side wallets have become a business model. Before social trading, only big KOLs could do it. Now, anyone who lands on a leaderboard can monetize by dumping on their copy-traders. The temptation is real
3) CT normalizes bundle culture
“Everyone bundles. It's how it's done" - an excuse we hear every time we expose a KOL. Supply control isn't the problem. Hiding it is. If it's so bullish, why hide it? Spoiler: because you're planning to sell
***
Launchpads are paying millions to dishonest KOLs. It's time they start taking it seriously
Audit the top traders. Expose their side wallets. Ban repeat offenders
We have the tools. What's missing is the willingness to use them
No one's coming to save us
jason 🎢 retweeted
Agree equity positioning is washed and the odds are good for a short-term tactical pop.
However, our cyclical macro regime indicator flipped "risk-off" at the beginning of this month, which favors being underweight risk assets heading into year end.
anotha one. give hivemind a watch lads
thanks to @0xOmnia for joining !
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss what’s behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trump’s Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One
2
8
795
also not something i see mentioned often but something i think is important to highlight
usually in crypto the news leaks to insiders well ahead of time and we see price action reflect that into an announcement of some kind
haven't seen that with hyperliquid around notable events like the USDC announcement, or the US regulatory announcement and now the ICE/druck announcement
lesson in there somewhere i think. hype leading by example in more ways than one
2
13
969
jason 🎢 retweeted
Just released an in-depth look at the energy markets for @Delphi_Digital.
🔋 Every AI power forecast has been too low and is being revised up. Data centers used under 5% of US electricity in 2024. Berkeley Lab now projects as much as 15% by 2030, and EPRI as much as 17%.
🔋 US electricity demand roughly doubled every decade after WWII, then barely moved for fifteen years. By the early 2020s, more power generation was waiting in line to connect to the grid than existed on the grid itself.
🔋 The US needs about 5,000 miles of new high-capacity transmission a year. In 2024 it built 322 miles.
🔋 Everything is sold out. Large power transformers take more than three years to deliver. Howmet’s new turbine blade plant in Japan was sold out before the first casting machine arrived. GE Vernova's backlog now runs over six years of output.
🔋 Turbine prices are on track to nearly triple 2019 levels by the end of 2027.
🔋 Retired jet engines are being converted into power plants, and power developers are now outbidding airlines for them. Fuel cells, which make electricity from gas without burning it, are scaling like a factory product instead of heavy industry.
🔋 Hyperscalers are funding technologies that have never run commercially but could provide the clean, firm power they need for the next decades: advanced reactors, enhanced geothermal, multi-day iron-air batteries, and fusion.
While the market remains jittery over hyperscaler demand, I still think it’s underestimating how much AI usage has left to grow, especially as it is directed toward discovery in science and engineering. Add a Washington that treats AI and the power behind it as national security, and I think we’re in a new regime for energy markets.
Our new report “The AI Boom Has a Power Problem” is live!
Power has become a harder constraint on AI than chips because it takes years to build, leaving pricing power with anyone who can deliver electricity faster than the grid.
Read the report here.
delphi.link/Power
a bit of an update to this pinned tweet, but not really
the market will always tell you what it likes, all you have to do is listen
hyperliquid
on memes, fundamentals and the current trading environment
tldr:
1. the market will tell you what it likes, all you have to do is listen
2. approach the market for what it is, not what you think it ought to be
5
737
checking in on the farmers
just buy the coin the market has been telling you to buy for literal years at this point
wonder what the opportunity cost is for the people farming points on the 75 perp dex derivatives vs just longing $hype over the last several months
absolutely mogged by jeff
6
620
i often think about this day from may 2023
gg hyperliquid
how time flies and how far things have come
thankful to @chameleon_jeff & @choffstein for this banger podcast in may 2023
1
4
620