Bradley Stalder

My fantasy football rankings are built on structure, distribution, and outcome variance.

I personally have a dislike for these early games. Not for lineup setting. But Sunday mornings are sacred time for family.

Since we’re all sharing our Emmett Johnson rankings, I’ve moved him to RB8. No hate. Been dynamic. Starting him over Derrick Henry in a league. Sometimes it feels like in these situations either the player super smashes or massively lets down. Hope he smashes!

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 51 yards in Week 9. He still drew 10 targets. He's at 99 targets through 9 games. Seattle expects Drew Lock to start again against Las Vegas. The QB situation changes the projection 📉, but JSN's target concentration keeps him near the top.

Breece Hall had 15 carries to Braelon Allen's 8 in Week 9. Routes went the other way: Allen: 15 Hall: 8 Buffalo was an 8-point favorite in the Week 10 spread. If the Jets spend Sunday trailing, that passing-down split could favor Allen as fantasy streamer.

Chris Olave had 12 targets, 7 catches and 98 yards in Week 9. No TD. CAR–NO has a 48.5 total in Week 10. Olave opens at WR4. The target volume is already there. This matchup gives him another useful scoring environment.

Green Bay's Week 9 receiving lines: Matthew Golden: 10 catches, 164 yards, 1 TD Christian Watson: 7 catches, 171 yards, 1 TD 335 yards on 18 combined targets. Whew. Both open inside my top 7 WRs against Minnesota. #GoPackGo

Kaleb Johnson: 14 carries, 68 yards and a TD in Week 9. Only 8 routes. Josh Jacobs needs finger surgery. MarShawn Lloyd is still a health question, and Chris Brooks needs IR activation. Kaleb Johnson has a rushing opportunity. The passing-down role is not quite guaranteed.

CeeDee Lamb just turned 16 targets into 10 catches for 195 yards. SF–DAL opened this week's lines with a 55.5 total, the highest on the board. I'm still watching George Pickens' hamstring status. CeeDee Lamb opens at WR1 in my first run.

Isaiah Likely has been targeted on 26.5% of his 179 routes against zone this season. Washington has played zone on 75.8% of opponent dropbacks. He opens at TE5 for me tonight. The receiving workload gives him a path beyond needing a TD.

Malik Nabers' season receiving splits through Week 9: Clean pocket: 3.21 yards per route on 170 routes. QB pressured: 1.10 on 94 routes. Washington has blitzed on 43.6% of opponent dropbacks across 8 games. The gap in Nabers' production makes the Giants' protection a pretty interesting part of tonight's matchup. Malik Nabers opens at WR10 for me. I'm watching how often JJM gets a clean pocket.

Cam Skattebo practiced fully Tuesday. John Harbaugh expects him to be full-go. My first Week 10 run has him at RB18. The early rushing line was 50.5 yards. Devin Singletary will still have a role.

Tyler Higbee caught 1 pass for 13 yards in Week 9. His 31 routes led the Rams' TEs: Higbee: 31 Parkinson: 22 Davis Allen: 17 Puka Nacua is expected out. Adams and Ferguson remain on IR. Higbee's route lead is why he opens at TE7 for me.

👀 Strong week 💪 Now on to Week 10

Corey Kiner had 8 carries for 55 yards and a TD in Week 9. He played 10 snaps. Lan Larison played 13 snaps, ran 6 routes and had 1 carry. Kiner ran 0 routes. With Rhamondre Stevenson expected to miss time and TreVeyon Henderson still sidelined, Kiner has the clearest rushing opportunity. Larison was already getting it. Corey Kiner opens at RB14 in my half-PPR rankings. That assumes Kiner getting most of the carries.

One million targets for Tyler Warren incoming

Josh Downs and Keenan Allen combined for 14 targets in Week 9. Both are gone from Indianapolis. Tyler Warren already had 7 targets on 29 routes. Alec Pierce remains on IR. That's a lot of work to redistribute around a TE who was already playing 81% of the snaps.

Hate to state the obvious, but this might be the nail in the coffin for Kyler Murray’s career as a starter in the NFL. There have been first round pick quarterbacks to revive their careers lately, but it will require a couple years of Murray playing second fiddle somewhere. Maybe it’s staying in Minnesota as a backup, or maybe he is a bridge quarterback somewhere else. Minnesota was his best chance to recharge and reignite the magic that we saw near the beginning of his career.

Fire up the cousins Jefferson stack!

And! There it is!