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henry cooke

@henrycooke

political editor at @the_postnz. tipline: 📞021 241 1398 📧[email protected] 📧[email protected]

 wellington
thepost.co.nz/authors/henry-cooke
Joined February 2009
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Pick your path through election night! I've laid out four very plausible scenarios for how the night could go, and some markers you can look for to work out which timeline we are in. And I've built a tool to let you work build your own scenario - overhang and all:
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Currently the chamber can seat about 124 MPs. Clerk David Wilson tells me his building team are already hard at work sorting out a new layout - which will potentially see the backbench become a real backbench, not a back row of separated seats.
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very luckily for parliament a new building is almost ready - there aren't enough offices for the current lot
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NEW: Harry Mowbray thinks the overhang campaign saved the Nats - but bc they didn't lean in enough they still might need Opportunity. He warned that money for they could dry up if they don't start to play ball.
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thepost.co.nz/politics/36111…
Harry Mowbray claims overhang campaign success, hints money could dry up if the Nats don’t lean in

Harry Mowbray claims overhang campaign success, hints money could dry up if the Nats don’t lean in

Harry Mowbray says it is “bloody clear” that the overhang campaign has led to National’s potential path to power.

thepost.co.nz
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- 399k special votes - turnout down to 74.6%
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With 100% of the non-special vote counted Labour is ahead of National by about 4k party votes but six behind on seats. If we were in a purely PR system (no threshold) the coalition parties would be ahead of the others by 17k votes or about 0.7 points.
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it’s pretty hard to see a path for Labour without some crazy stuff on the specials. turning over seats shrinks parliament and thus the size of the majority the coalition need. that plus some party vote movement maybe gets you to a hung parliament if OPP go left, not govt
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perhaps i was a little hasty here - you could do - Wairarapa + Hamilton East - No other elecs change - One extra seat for left from ACT or NZF from party vote, or two from Nat But there looks to be far fewer specials, so the patterns of other elections aren't as good of a guide
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Wasted vote: - 2017: 4.7% - 2020: 7.8% - 2023: 5.6% - 2026 (prelim): 0.85%
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honestly insane
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(the margin being that close in a country this size)
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Luxon said 300k special votes but EC not confirming yet.
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that was not a victory speech. which is appropriate.
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Wild to have a Portillo moment yet also potentially win back Govt.
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Labour could *just* lose out on Government because the Green Party win Te Tai Tokerau. TPM ahead by just 409 votes. If Greens pick it up the left overhang drops by one.
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I've seen enough in Hutt South. Labour ahead 1000 votes with 94% reported - quite a hill to climb for Bishop. And probably one that is too large.
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Erica Stanford says Luxon will call Qiulae Wong if he needs to:
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Michael Wood has a SINGLE VOTE lead in Mt Roskill. One vote.
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The press pack facing National ministers arriving
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It is quite astonishing that even with its party vote down nine points National looks to be picking up two new electorates (Nelson and Tāmaki).
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