Justin Hart

Updated predictions, one day out: 🔵 El-Sayed wins Michigan 🔴 Collins holds Maine 🔵 Brown wins Ohio 🔵 Talarico wins Texas 🔵 Peltola wins Alaska 🔵 Hamilton upsets in Kansas 🔴 Hinson wins Iowa 🔴 Ricketts wins Nebraska 🔴 Graham wins SC One change since Saturday: Ohio. The final polls and the early vote both lean Brown now. That's a 52-48 Democratic Senate.

He's right. You don't lose like this and then re-elect the same leadership a week later like nothing happened.

Even in a wipeout, voters still trusted Republicans more on immigration. That's the one NOT to cave on.

Wrong answer, Mr. Speaker. Voters don't make the wrong choice. Parties make the wrong pitch.

The whole midterm in one table. Net approval at the midterm, per the exit poll: Bush '06: -14 Obama '10: -11 Obama '14: -11 Trump '18: -9 Biden '22: -11 Trump '26: -26 Nearly double the next worst. That's not one issue. That's everything.

Last night: "My guess is they walk this back tomorrow." Today: "We're not going to have amnesty." Miller found the room. 😂

Six days after the election. 🙃

Democrats want to cap credit card rates at 10%. Sounds great. It's been tried. Arkansas capped interest at 10% for more than a century. Stores moved across the line to Texas. Illinois capped small loans in 2021. Loans to subprime borrowers fell 38%. Chile cut its cap in 2013. Nearly 1 in 10 borrowers lost access to bank loans. Kenya capped rates in 2016. Loan approvals fell from 50% to 34%. They repealed it. A price cap on credit doesn't make credit cheaper. It makes it disappear for the people with the weakest credit.

"If, God forbid, we ask our troops to go and do something very difficult." If.

Vance on "the devastating loss last week." Unfair criticism of the leader. Staff infighting. Whether the number two can lead. He means Ohio State. Sure he does.

JD Vance and others want to make the Iran war a stand-in for “no new wars.” I’m not a fan. But here’s the hard reality. A record 45% of Americans now call themselves independents. Republicans and Democrats are tied at 27%. Independents decide every national election now, and this month they went 58-38 for Democrats. In 2024 they split 49-48. So what do we change? Cave on immigration? No. Cave on abortion? No. Cave on lower taxes and smaller government? No. Cave on foreign interventions? My vote is no. But 68% of independents say the Iran war was the wrong decision. Do we give in, fight to win them over, or find something in between? A strong national defense has ALWAYS been a core leg of the Republican stool. But what if the only way to a majority is to kick that leg out?

Yikes! Incident at Lafayette Square near the White House. Man crashed into a sign and then got out and started fighting with law enforcement and Secret Service agents. No bueno.

Heaven had one condition: hug Pelosi and Comey. He picked the other door. 🤣

One of the big AI companies got a call from the DOJ: “Get ready to go to jail.”

The one thing I’ll say here. Stephen Miller was definitely NOT in the room for this. My guess is — they walk this back tomorrow.

The swamp is swampy.

Trump. Endorses. Amnesty. HOLY CRAP! 😳

Vance blamed the Iran war for the midterm wipeout. Trump on 60 Minutes: Would he do it again? “An emphatic yes.” Good for today and tomorrow? “Maybe not.” That’s the whole election in two answers.

Just so we're clear - like many Presidents - Trump's approval ratings started falling the minute he took office. And it appears that they never stopped dropping. Yes, the war with Iran exacerbated an already-exacerbated electorate, but it was more likely the nail in the coffin than the triggering event.