PM for liquid portfolio @anagramxyz Prev: Diplomat @SolanaFndn I write sometimes at https://xitter.gq/t.co/NZeapsKnX6
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Joined April 2009
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ICE <> Tradexyz is pretty cool. Some random thoughts:
- what does the investment in tradexyz actually mean? Equity? Equity + token warrants? Something else? Value capture between hyperliquid and Tradexyz question again
- Im guessing people in crypto will drastically underestimate how long it takes for this new product to go live
- One of the nice things about HYPE is that it's one globally accessible venue that creates the most liquid markets for various assets. This new ICExyz product almost seems like it's building a brand new exchange with a separate regulated access path and just licensing risk engine + brand from Hyperliquid? Put another way, it doesn't seem all that connected to the rest of HYPE? What am I missing?
I think the value of building a brand around trust is under-appreciated in crypto
The industry has gotten numb to extractive behavior and crime because we've seen so much of it
People forget that hey maybe there's value to doing the high trust thing, even if it's harder and makes less money short-term. Always appreciated that about the @Collector_Crypt team
Shower thought re AI bubble concerns:
1/ AI VC might in fact be in bubble territory (im not close to it, just judging from the behavior we're seeing and the vibes)
2/ AI stuff in public markets might be... fine?
Concerns about "AI bubble" conflate these two capital markets that while linked, also have very different market participants and incentive structures/
Im not against "tranching" in principle. Series A vs Series B is a form of tranching
But also, this behavior in crypto VC was a sign of exuberance... so not super great
This was fun!
Forgive me bouncing around. Doing a podcast while in standing desk mode perhaps not the wisest decision
New Episode w @knimkar, PM @anagramxyz
We discuss
- Managing a liquid book in current conditions
- Betting on MetaDAO ecosystem
- $SHFL and $CARDS thesis
1:50 How a Liquid Crypto Fund Builds Conviction
3:54 Why Liquid Funds Are Betting on MetaDAO
12:01 Should You Own MetaDAO or the Businesses Built on It?
14:52 The Credible Thesis
16:57 Cash Flow Assets vs. Belief Assets
19:58 Why Buy and Hold Has Failed in Crypto
24:31 The Shuffle Thesis
32:45 Why Collectibles and Pokémon Could Be Crypto’s Best RWA Bet
38:35 Where Crypto Markets Go From Here
Interesting that the token with afaik the highest earnings yield isn't even on this list
(im talking actual dollar earnings that come from profits of the business and go directly to token stakers , NOT token emissions or weird circular economy flows)
Top 10 Tokenholder Yield: $HYPE, $LIT, $CAKE, $AERO, $UNI, $RAY, $PENDLE, $AAVE, $JUP, $CRV
Top 10 Adjusted Earnings Yield: $CAKE, $LIT, $HYPE, $RAY, $AAVE, $JUP, $SKY, $UNI, $AERO, $PENDLE
Crypto valuations don’t have to rely on narratives alone. Many crypto assets can be valued on their cash flows, earnings, and capital returned to tokenholders. Read more on The Stack: grayscale.com/the-stack/brin…
Every once in a while, I reflect on how the S&P500 is the best investment product to have ever existed
- just be long the winners
- have infinite bid because everyone in the world's richest country just automatically puts their money in you
- charge no fees
- be totally unbothered by market vol
--- e.g., last month, professional investors getting wrecked left and right. Jane Street losing money. AI wunderkinds getting liquidated. Gigachad index moves at most 1 - 1.3% in a day. Usually way less
Absolute unit
Think it's possible that cybersecurity actually helps fuel the next wave of interest in crypto.
Only way to trust a complex technical system now might be lindyness. If there's a large incentive to attack an easily accessible system, but it remaine robust, every day that passes you revise your P(hack) down
What we've been building in crypto has been the first set of complex technical system to be the punching bag for the new wave of AI-enabled hackers
I am by no means sure if we have actually made it through our beating (almost certainly not yet)
But if we don't die, the systems that are left will be the foundation of the most battle-hardened financial architecture ever?
It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward.
I stand by these words.
If Black Friday comes early this year, be ready to go shopping
🛒🛒🛒
solana:CREDBHvVqREBCAxMihzr8D1nepHMr2gmQoZWpmgGmeta is the only high quality token bet on the growth of cross-border stablecoin payments that exists
And it's an Ownership Coin, token holders accrue all value.
Cool to see organic recognition of their success within the industry
RESEARCH: Stablecoins settled roughly $35T onchain in 2025, more than @Visa and @Mastercard combined.
Only about $390B of it was a real payment.
A new CoinDesk Research report maps where the value actually went, and why @crediblefin is building for the gap in between.
My theory is there are a few dynamics at play here
1/ you cannot compare tokens launched recently (esp in last year) to those that have been around for a long time.
The valuations for many old coins is nonsensical and probably always will be, because it's a function of anchoring bias of holders to a historical set of dumb prices. The bar for newer tokens to go up is in general higher
2/ you cannot compare MetaDAO tokens to most tokens because... crime (or lack thereof)
it's hard to understate how much crime and insider games are played with many (esp CEX listed) tokens. Ownership Coins have none of this, it requires organic buying
3/ there is relatively little serious capital looking at smaller cap names, but there is a lot of retail
Many Ownership Coins are just punted around by people on Fomo when they have volatility and then forgotten at some point
All this said, while it can be frustrating to see these egregious mispricings short-term, it's also why I think there is a truckload of money to be made on some of these assets.
agree that majority of the flows are event-driven flows
however, I strongly believe that both $CRED and $UMBRA are criminally undervalued
Credible is doing $6m in rev and trades at 1.3x multiple - the market is basically pricing in zero future growth for this biz. meanwhile their payment volume is +50% QoQ
Umbra just launched their v2, which I'd argue is currently the best privacy solution on Solana. their v1 was built on top of Arcium, but ran into headwinds using that stack, so they stripped it away, and built the entire stack from the ground up using zk (Nimbus). go deposit some assets into the shielded pools and give it a go and come to your own realizations
the peers for UMBRA trade in the magnitudes of 10-1000x higher, but I'd argue that their tech stack already, and will continue to, rival its peers. I currently view UMBRA as the most asymmetric, pure-play bet on privacy for crypto-specific use cases: trading & payments
I continue to believe that there are some incredibly undervalued, fundamental companies in the metadao ecosystem and expect these to reprice in due time
(nfa // disc. long both assets)
Avg podcast quality in crypto going up substantially
First it was @theempirepod ep with @WeiszM
Now it's @YanLiberman interviewing @0xdrej
solana:KMNo3nJsBXfcpJTVhZcXLW7RmTwTt4GVFE7suUBo9sS went up a good bit after Michael's interview.
Let's see how solana:Grass7B4RdKfBCjTKgSqnXkqjwiGvQyFbuSCUJr3XXjs does after Andrej's
The "Good Podcast" rerating(?)
We are still doing our diligence on @TheInnerTable but one pleasant surprise from the process: i gotta say the @backabledotbiz UI is amazing
hats off
The Inner Table (@TheInnerTable) ICO opens tomorrow at 17:30 UTC!
The Inner Table is a poker and entertainment brand founded by @kirat_tw, building physical and online poker studios across India. Read all about it here: backable.biz/raises/BGyEf4Ew…
I am sad for the loss of the fun we used to have
But happy for the remaining capital in crypto to be less... how do I say this... dumb
The laws of physics dictate that solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp can only have +/- 20% days
Extremely few products in crypto that you can look at and think "man usage could actually 1,000x-10,000x from here in the next year" and it would be a reasonable scenario to consider. But I think solana:Grass7B4RdKfBCjTKgSqnXkqjwiGvQyFbuSCUJr3XXjs ' Content and Search APIs could do it
There are ofc tail notable risks to the product (e.g., lawsuits, regulation)
But sometimes, you gotta bull-ieve
You can just go to LCR.net and give your agents access to a fleet of 10s of thousands of browsers that have the ability to route requests through millions of real residential IP addresses.
There are some tokens where retail will outperform funds because they "get" the product and are users ($PUMP, solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp, $HYPE. ethereum:0x8881562783028f5c1bcb985d2283d5e170d88888 etc.)
And there are some assets where retail won't "get it" and funds will be the ones who outperform.
solana:CREDBHvVqREBCAxMihzr8D1nepHMr2gmQoZWpmgGmeta I suspect will be in the latter camp (sadly for our friends on CT and @fomo). "Boring" enterprise business that is crushing it, but that people on CT aren't users of, and the business value prop requires an understanding of payments flows to grok
Our Q3 $CRED ownership coin report is here.
We put the numbers, ownership structure, treasury decisions, market performance and valuation analysis in one place.
Q3 brought $533.2M in payment volume and a 50.8% increase over Q2.
Q3 was a big quarter for Credible, now it’s time to look under the hood🧵
