We already called the bottom

One of the ugliest 8-Ks you'll ever see.

Striking data on Japan's relative comfort with AI: Only 31% say it makes them nervous, vs. 64% of Americans. The sad irony: Japan is just 16% energy self-sufficient vs. ~110% for the US.

We've been tracking every broker/exchange that has reported Q3 and the obvious weak link is pricing. $HOOD continued that today with weak-ish pricing power across options, equities and crypto. When I put all our broker/exchange EPS wraps into Claude, here was the summary: "The pattern across space is decent volume y/y, but weak q/q and deteriorating further. Unit pricing is the weak link. Rates and FX products have the best mix of volume and price, helped by the rate backdrop. Everything driven by retail or micro-sized flow is growing volume but not revenue due to weakening pricing. For both brokers and exchanges, non-trading lines (net interest, market data, solutions, clearing and treasury income) are carrying more of the earnings growth than trading."

$HOOD trading -5% AH on a topline miss and Q3 MAUs 13M vs est 14.4M. >Total revenues +12%; transaction revs +19% >Crypto trading revenue $120M vs. $114M est >Total platform AUM +19% y/y; net deposits +17% annualized >Retirement AUC +51% >Relative strength in options (+53% y/y) >Lowers expense guidance by ~1% >Share count flat >$1.35B remaining on share buyback authorization

Depeg, cruise ship edition

$GLXY +5% pre-market after Q3 EPS release Headline profit beat is unrealized gains on Bitcoin and other marks. Treasury & Corp made $419M vs a $42M loss in Q2. Helios Phase 1 first full leasing quarter: $79M revenue (Q2 $19M) and $69M adj. EBITDA. In line-ish with what we were looking for (87% margin). Data center segment still netted roughly zero net given $75M of interest on the new debt. Phase 2 deliveries start 2Q27. Helping the price: new $200M buyback authorized after the first one finished Oct 15. About offsets stock comp dilution. Share count barely moved. Open items for the 8:30am call: Helios II leasing interest, Phase 3 funding, McGregor.

Replies noting the original assumes 100% uptake. Fair, but it also just annualized the savings instead of capitalizing them. MSFT's last voluntary retirement offer saw ~30% acceptance. This one is broader and MSFT expects a lower take rate; call it 10% for a conservative case = $2.4B/year in ongoing savings. Discounted as a perpetuity at 10% gives ~$24B of PV. Same 2:1 leverage still supports ~$72B of capex capacity, basically the original figure.

Triple-C bonds underperformed high yield in 2025 and doing it again YTD. A 3rd straight year would be very rare - the last such streak was 1999 to 2002, a full-blown default cycle.

"Anthropic's IPO and access to secured funding could significantly reduce financing risk around its AI investment cycle despite more than $417 billion of long-term commitments. An equity raise would add to about $132 billion of cash and short-term investments, while Anthropic's demonstrated use of secured special-purpose vehicles provides another route to funding alongside its $15 billion revolving line of credit. Broader secured debt-market access may materially expand debt capacity even if unsecured investment-grade funding is limited near term, supporting a stronger credit profile despite the scale of future spending." - Bloomberg Intelligence

Netherlands is one of only 9 countries remaining with AAA rating from all three major ratings agencies

Glad for the W here amidst a brutal stretch.

Swap lines activated: *NVIDIA, AMD, BROADCOM INDICATE INTEREST TO BUY UP TO $5B OF META STOCK Meta to Raise $35B in common, preferred stock; will launch separate ~$60B ATM no earlier than Q1