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HSBC expects silver’s market deficit to shrink from 140 million ounces in 2025 to 5 million ounces this year, and to widen only to 12 million ounces in 2027.
Mine supply, scrap and recycling are all rising while industrial and jewelry demand fall.
Large-bar buying from China and India is recovering and ETFs are “starting to rebuild,” but the bank says those flows are not large enough to power a strong new rally.
Its year-end targets are $70 for 2026 and $65 for 2027, and it does not expect silver to challenge $100 again anytime soon.
"There are people continuously saying now that gold's going to underperform because interest rates go higher and the cost to hold it etc.
That flies in the face of history.
The two biggest rises for gold were during the two biggest periods where interest rates rose."
- Peter Grandich, Top of Mine, 29 Oct 2026
Uranium’s long-term price indicator held at its highest level in more than 18 years in September, even as uranium mining shares dropped 16%.
TradeTech’s indicator stayed at $97 a pound from June through September, up $13 from a year earlier. Utilities were seeking deliveries beginning as early as 2027 and extending into the late 2030s.
BMI expects the market to shift from a modest surplus this year into deficit in 2027.
It also forecasts reactor uranium requirements growing 4.1% a year from 2026 to 2035, ahead of mine production growth of 3.3%.
Source: TradeTech, BMI
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18% of mining executives put new mine development among their top three capital priorities, according to EY’s latest survey.
EY’s Americas mining and metals leader says brownfield expansions are drawing more interest because permitting is less complicated and companies work within familiar communities.
Reprocessing old tailings and waste piles is also attracting more attention as a less complex alternative to developing an entirely new mine.
Full conversation now on our YouTube channel:
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Hecla Mining has lost 60% from its 52-week high, taking its market value down to $9 billion as silver dropped below $50 an ounce.
Coeur Mining is down 25% in October and 53% from its peak, while Pan American Silver sits 44% below its high at a $16 billion valuation.
Silver is down roughly 18% for the month.
Mines are getting harder to run, and executives rank that as the industry’s biggest risk for 2027.
EY says aging mines and depleting reserves are making new deposits harder to mine and process.
Regulatory delays are the top contributor, followed by variability in reserve grades at 29%.
With capital harder to secure, 44% of miners are pursuing funding from original equipment manufacturers and 39% from sovereign wealth funds.
Governments are stepping in too, with public critical mineral financing commitments more than quadrupling between 2023 and 2025, to about $65 billion.
North America’s five most valuable gold companies have lost almost $140 billion in combined market value from their 52-week highs, with Agnico Eagle alone accounting for more than $40 billion.
Gold fell as much as 3.2% to $3,891.67 an ounce on Friday, its weakest in a year, and is on track for a drop of about 6% in October, its worst for the month since 2008.
Bullion trades about 28% below its record close of $5,419.83 on January 28.
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UBS projects silver at $70 an ounce by December, $75 by mid-2027 and $80 by September 2027.
The bank projects a sixth consecutive annual deficit for the silver market in 2026.
Analysts in a Reuters poll expect silver to average $66.75 in 2027, down from this year’s forecast of $70.30.
They cite weakening photovoltaic demand, substitution in manufacturing and cautious investment sentiment after this year’s swings.
Source: UBS, Reuters
Motilal Oswal expects silver to stay volatile over the next six to 12 months, with US rate expectations, the dollar and industrial demand setting direction.
The brokerage’s commodities analyst said silver “could hover around $50-$65 range,” and that a break on either side could decide the metal’s next direction. Silver trades near $49.
Source: Motilal Oswal via CNBC
HSBC expects silver’s market deficit to shrink from 140 million ounces in 2025 to 5 million ounces this year, and to widen only to 12 million ounces in 2027.
Mine supply, scrap and recycling are all rising while industrial and jewelry demand fall.
Large-bar buying from China and India is recovering and ETFs are “starting to rebuild,” but the bank says those flows are not large enough to power a strong new rally.
Its year-end targets are $70 for 2026 and $65 for 2027, and it does not expect silver to challenge $100 again anytime soon.
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