The platform for machine-learning powered advertising attribution.
Joined March 2021
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Need some Black Friday Cyber Monday inspiration?
All recordings from our 2026 Conference are on YouTube 🗽
youtube.com/playlist?list=PL…
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The biggest blocker for scale is your measurement.
Bad data leads to bad analysis which leads to bad strategy.
It all stems from the data. That's why your ads have plateaued - because you're still looking at in-platform data instead of @northbeam.
@bryanbumgardner lays it out:
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A counter-intuitive perspective on AOV from one of our customers
Everyone says raise your AOV. Cuts lowered it $20 and its customer acquisition cost fell 65%. @stevenborrelli @mikebeckhamsm
Northbeam retweeted
Yes we use northbeam product attribution quite a bit to see which ads are driving what type of revenue
We see really interesting behavior. Like, during sweepstakes we see our ads drive a MUCH wider distribution across different product categories.
High AOV brands are outperforming this year. What's going on?
@BryanBumgardner explains, chart attached.
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Northbeam retweeted
Snap is view heavy. 1) Great to measure with @northbeam Clicks and Deterministic Views - a model name we created. 2) Also, @northbeam Incrementality testing to validate. 3) Northbeam Apex passes the data back to @Snapchat to increase performance. 1-3 is a winning combo.
Meta CVRs hit record lows this year, but advertisers are making more money than ever on Meta Ads.
What's going on?
@BryanBumgardner explains:
AI will soon originate >15% of all organic search traffic.
After Black Friday, this number will likely be higher.
Are we already in an agentic reality?
Some @northbeam data, presented by @BryanBumgardner
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Clickthrough rates on Meta Ads are up more than 40% year-over-year since January.
Meta is pushing toward a high-engagement future.
This is ALL placements on Meta Ads (Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram) across all 1,000+ ad accounts we track, around $6 billion in ad spend.
What we can see is that average clickthrough rates have continued increasing nonstop since January 2025.
CTRs cooled off around Prime Day 2026 but have started improving again.
What's going on here, and why does this matter?
A few hypotheses:
1. Since iOS 14.5, Meta has realized that Apple's goal is to restrict as much tracking as possible. iOS 27 continues this trend.
Therefore, Meta is shifting their algorithm, product development, and strategic goals towards engagement.
It will be difficult for Apple to restrict or obscure actual clicks, meaning Meta can retain a high-intent (in theory) signal.
2. Advertisers, especially the folks seeing this message, have been pushing Meta to provide new customer acquisition more accurately and cheaply.
Driving up clicks gives Meta more data.
3. GEM, Lattice and Andromeda need massive amount of signal to work properly. If you know anything about data science you know that more data = more accuracy in machine learning.
In-app browser behavior via clickthroughs gives these models a ton of signal, so Meta's optimizing for it.
4. CTRs are, to some degree, a vanity metric. They're useful for measuring hook performance, but we all know that having good hooks is a bragging right. Nobody wants to talk about what's happening AFTER the clickthrough.
So nobody's sounding the alarm on this because we over-index on CTRs and we're just accepting the win.
5. Meta's goal is to build a userbase that engages heavily with ads. Users who engage with ads are more likely to buy from them.
At a time when ads are deeply despised (on places like YouTube, for example) Meta's making sure that users are getting served ads they actually want to click.
6. If Meta can build a userbase that engages with ads, then when Meta pivots fully to their AI-generated in-house ads creation engines, they'll have a strong sense of what users WANT to see, and therefore those ads will perform as well or BETTER than human-made content.
This is the holy grail for them. Tin hat conspiracy time: Meta is using all your ads to train their engine so they can replace you with AI in the next 18 months.
7. We are a hair away from ads appearing in DMs. It's the final frontier. Meta is gonna do it. It's a matter of when. If this CTR behavior begins to flag after they pivot to AI ad creation, I bet it starts.
What are you seeing in your ads? Are CTRs improving over time?
All data, charts and analysis by @bryanbumgardner 🛰️
That's a real screenshot from a @northbeam dashboard, by the way.
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Are you measuring "conversion lag?"
If you aren't you're probably leaving money on the table this BFCM. @BryanBumgardner explains, guide in the thread
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This week's Media Buyer Index is in:
It feels like Black Friday came early this year.
This week's data from @northbeam:
Nothing is moving like it's supposed to. This data is from right before Election Day, so post-political spending release isn't visible yet.
Still, Meta conversion rates are dropping even while CTR is improving?
This feels like people researching but holding off on buying until they see a BFCM discount.
Why don't you just give them a discount, then? Why do we have to wait until after Thanksgiving?
If Amazon can do Big Deal Days on a random weekend in October, you can start giving away your BFCM discount now, who cares?
AppLovin performance has been chaotic since Oct 1, but I'm not really concerned about that. Usually BFCM on AppLovin is pretty decent because it's a more captive audience.
TikTok is going wild, though. More people are on TikTok Shops than ever, and since BFCM is truly an Amazon holiday, TikTok benefits.
The TikTok -> Amazon customer purchasing pattern is biblically powerful. Except this year, it feels like more mainstream advertisers are catching up.
I expect TikTok performance to continue to improve through the end of this year into next.
TikTok has my attention. It's capturing more share, Shops is taking off, and brands are starting to take it more seriously than ever. Especially as a source of high-quality creative and content.
Next Thursday's charts are gonna look nuts.
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