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Joined January 2022
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π’ ANNOUNCEMENT π’
Full pick threads are moving to our Discord, split by league.
Marquee matchups + plays of the day stay here.
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π tonight's card: JACKSONVILLE STATE @ NEW MEXICO STATE
1) a prop
2) a prop
3) a side, all 3 free π
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π― Deondre Johnson OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1u
- Johnson is the top target in this offense with 431 receiving yards on 22 catches, and New Mexico State allows 224.1 passing yards per game, 91st in FBS.
- He has cleared 55.5 in 5 of 7 games this season (11 of 15 counting last year), and his median this season sits at 60.
- His last two outings went for 112 yards at Kennesaw State on Oct. 7 and 93 on 4 catches against FIU on Oct. 13.
π― James Jones OVER 102.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1u
- Jones is over this number in 4 of 7 games this season, but one miss was a 28-yard opener at Florida State, his median is 112, and he has gone over in 3 of his last 4.
- He leads Conference USA with 777 rushing yards at 6.5 per carry, and Jacksonville State gives up 156.4 rushing yards per game, 92nd in FBS.
- His last time out was 178 yards on 27 carries in the 30-24 win at Sam Houston on Oct. 21, his fourth 100-yard game of the season.
π nhl wednesday full slate
mcdavid, mackinnon, ovechkin, matthews. 4 free picks, one per game π
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DEVILS @ AVALANCHE
π― Nathan MacKinnon OVER 3.5 Shots On Goal (-120)
- His median across 12 games is 4 shots on goal and this line is 3.5. The log reads 2, 4, 5, 1, 9, 4, 2, 8, 2, 1, 4, 8, seven of 12 over.
- Tonight is the home half of his split. At Ball Arena he has taken 4, 9, 4, 8, 4 and 8 shots, clearing this line in 6 of 6 home games, versus 1 of 6 on the road.
- New Jersey played in Dallas on Tuesday so this is its second night in a row, while Colorado has been home since Sunday. Being straight with you, a pass first night like his 2 shot game in Nashville on Saturday beats this.
MAPLE LEAFS @ KRAKEN
π― William Nylander OVER 2.5 Shots On Goal (-130)
- Across his last 14 games the median is 3 shots on goal and he has cleared 2.5 in 8 of them, including 4 and 3 in his last two.
- The split is the story: on the road he has taken 4, 3, 2, 4, 4 and 5 shots, clearing this line in 5 of 6 away games, versus 3 of 8 at home.
- Seattle allows 31.8 shots on goal per game, second most in the league, and is still without defenseman Ryan Lindgren, so the shot volume keeps coming his way.
π antonio martin has 480 rushing yards through 7 games
3 free cfb picks: KENNESAW STATE @ MIDDLE TENNESSEE π
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π― Middle Tennessee -2.5 (-130) 1u
- Kennesaw State did not score a touchdown in last Thursday's 34-6 loss to Liberty, and it has 4 touchdown passes against 6 interceptions through 7 games.
- Middle Tennessee is 3-0 at home this season, while the Owls are 0-3 on the road.
- Dominic Bourgeois went 4 for 4 on field goals at FIU, with makes from 50 and 51, so the Blue Raiders turn stalled drives into the points a 2.5 number needs.
π this card looked different an hour ago. here is what is left
nba ml watch: RAPTORS, 1 free ml pick π
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π― Raptors ML (-190) 1u
- Through 3 games Toronto has allowed 103.7 points a night, the lowest mark of any of tonight's 12 home teams and a point and a half clear of Minnesota at 105.0, while Orlando is scoring 109.7, so the Magic have to find points against the one defense least likely to hand them over.
- Paolo Banchero is out 4 to 6 weeks with a right high-ankle sprain confirmed by follow-up tests, which hands the whole offense to Franz Wagner at 21.0 points, 8.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists through 3 games, and a defense that can load up on one creator is a different problem than one choosing between two.
- Both teams last played Sunday, so there is no rest edge either way, and the split is in the buildings: Toronto is 1-0 at Scotiabank Arena while Orlando has lost both games on its own floor.
There is 1 pick here instead of 2 because every other game on tonight's slate already had a side we had taken somewhere else, and the leftovers were not arguments we believed. This one we do: Orlando brings 5 names on the injury report against 2 of Toronto's own, and a moneyline only has to be won by 1 point.
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πALEXPROPS NBAπ
Saddiq Bey βOβ 11.5 Points
βοΈ AP Proj. 18.63
Collab w/ @tkbpicks π€
βοΈ TKBpicks
- His median across his last ten is 18 points, and this line is 11.5. The log reads 14, 20, 13, 32, 20, 15, 18, 19, 17, 18, ten of ten over, and every one of those games is with New Orleans, so there is no team change muddying it.
- He has cleared it in all 3 games this season, with 14, 20 and 13 in 22 to 25 minutes, so even his quietest night is 1.5 above the number. He also scored 14 in Denver on Saturday against this same team.
- Denver is thin at forward. Cameron Johnson is doubtful with an ankle sprain and Spencer Jones and Alpha Diallo are both out, which leaves fewer bodies to put on him.
Being straight with you: his minutes are down. He played 22 to 25 this season after 28 to 39 last April, and 7 of those ten games are from last year when his role was bigger. It is only 3 games this season, so a quiet shooting night in a short role is the way this loses.
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π§Ή CLEAN SWEEP π§Ή
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Josh Anderson OVER 1.5 Shots On Goal (2 SOG)
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Mason McTavish OVER 1.5 Shots On Goal (5 SOG)
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Montreal Canadiens ML (won 2-0)
more free plays in our discord π
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π bruins or canes, who you got tonight?
BRUINS @ HURRICANES, 3 free picks in the thread either way π
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π§Ή CLEAN SWEEP π§Ή
β
Josh Anderson OVER 1.5 Shots On Goal (2 SOG)
β
Mason McTavish OVER 1.5 Shots On Goal (5 SOG)
β
Montreal Canadiens ML (won 2-0)
more free plays in our discord π
discord.gg/tzJx2UDN7h
π no suzuki. fowler in form. blues at home.
CANADIENS @ BLUES, 3 free picks π
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π§Ή CLEAN SWEEP π§Ή
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Michael Porter Jr. OVER 21.5 Points (27 points)
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Julius Randle OVER 6.5 Rebounds (9 rebounds)
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Nets +11.5 (lost 124-125)
more free plays in our discord π
discord.gg/tzJx2UDN7h
π michael porter jr. scored 54 in brooklyn's first two games
3 free nba picks: NETS @ CELTICS π
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