Trading Analytix

Not long until the clown show in Threadneedle St, so some quick thoughts. A hike is expected, so a hold will be the surprise. Much like the other central banks, it's not so much what they do today but what they will indicate for the future, and that's mostly about next year. The BOE have surprisingly (but sensibly) been reluctant to be uber hawkish. If they do turn more hawkish today GBP could benefit, although they will have to go harder than the current excessive market expectations. So, if anything, #GBP might get a bit softer if they're not massively hawkish (my expectation). The votes (6-3 or 7/2) probably won't shake markets but anything like a 5-4 will make it an less hawkish hike. The forecasts and their explanation of them at the presser will bore us all to death. I've also seen a lot of comments about whether the BOE will change their minds based on the oil moves of the last few days. Forget it. They're not oil scalpers, they are mon pol setters and their horizon is much further out than intraday price moves. Besides, the last 4 months of rising oil is more a factor for inflation to come than what it means for it over the last few days. My only trade outlook is for #EURGBP to get into the 0.82's and down to the big support in the mid-low 0.82's, though that's more of a longer-term trade idea than something to tinker with over this meeting.