I dumped all my ZB holdings (30Y T bonds) that I had bought at the absolute bottom in early Oct , my people knows.
I think inflation trade will be back very soon but this time there will be no sympathy from stocks as AI thing will not recover for years, remember spacs , crypto stocks? AI is the same on the surface for now but actually it is different, peak AI in this cycle is behind us, now they need incubation time like internet stocks that got demolished then came back like AMZN did. Forget AI for the next 2 to 3 years.
If you sold today's rally near the close, you will do good in near term , we are going to see last weeks lows in a few days but this time downside leadership will not be tech. (hint: buy your sells, sell your buys)
I hate to say it again and again but I told you so.
If you listened to the army of morons and shorted the bottom , expecting immediate downside because you know they showed you all of their state of the art charts and stats this weekend, and ignored my call, you better get used to this
This will be the most dangerous market for traders until Q1,
Not because the market will crash or plunge into the ground but because it will likely crash in both directions in short intervals.
During this period, you will witness upside bursts from hell that can dwarf such days like today. You will see sell offs, squeezes , huge gap openings and extreme intraday moves in both directions. My guess is, this will last 2 to 3 months
By Q1, many of you will be out of this market. Those who can adapt to this type of distinct tape will survive . Or better yet just sit out .
Today was ugly... If I am right, and I always am, then in a few days the market will prove me right and you will see an opposite action to the upside , a scorch from hell but when it happens many of you will be short or trapped because no one is expecting such market. This is a transitional market on steroids, this is not the type of market you can rely on broken supports and resistances to short or long.
I expect the end of the world market to start in Q1, prefebably right before Q2. A GFC style market .
This will be the most dangerous market for traders until Q1,
Not because the market will crash or plunge into the ground but because it will likely crash in both directions in short intervals.
During this period, you will witness upside bursts from hell that can dwarf such days like today. You will see sell offs, squeezes , huge gap openings and extreme intraday moves in both directions. My guess is, this will last 2 to 3 months
By Q1, many of you will be out of this market. Those who can adapt to this type of distinct tape will survive . Or better yet just sit out .
Today was ugly... If I am right, and I always am, then in a few days the market will prove me right and you will see an opposite action to the upside , a scorch from hell but when it happens many of you will be short or trapped because no one is expecting such market. This is a transitional market on steroids, this is not the type of market you can rely on broken supports and resistances to short or long.
I expect the end of the world market to start in Q1, prefebably right before Q2. A GFC style market .
My flux capacitor still kicks ass and no one, I mean no one can come close to this
Notice almost all gurus and furus are whining about SP500 holding despite all that AI scare , yield scare , war scare , bad breadth and data…
The markets have this strange behavior of running strong into the finish line , like H2 2007
Prepare for a scorch on coming goldilocks nonesense first
SPX rallied over 450 handles since my bottom call back in July at 7316.
Since then , you were fed AI fears, yield fears and war fears that kept many away from equities as evident from AAII and NAAIM exposure index numbers
As we approach Oct and make a bunch all time highs , sentiment will fully reset. You need to watch 2 things going forward. Leadership and breadth.
My guess is:
You will not see a consistent leadership
Breadth will not expand meaningfully
The rally will have an erratic nature with many disorderly and disproportional retracements
I remain bullish into early to mid-Oct and see how things evolve. If my intuitions is right, there is going to be a cyclical top not in the distant future.
approaching my favorite CIT time frame , lovely OctoFist .....
notice how people started to talk about AI bubble popping while insiders are scaring people with human extinction and shit...
The very fundamental reason for all is : AI commoditization accelerates since DeepSeek.