The election results, if they’re anywhere near the exit polls, puts Israel in a fateful position. A clear majority is against the Netanyahu coalition. A clear majority is against a government including the Arab parties. The centrist parties have a massive dilemma here. Which taboo will they break? Netanyahu’s strategy is clear. Run a delegitimisation campaign against a government supported by the Arab parties and run down the clock until either part of the opposition breaks and joins him or there’s no alternative but to hold another election. Which he will have a better chance of winning. The opposition’s only alternative is to make the numbers, which on paper are in their favour, actually work. The opposition beat the Netanyahu camp. The Arab parties won an unprecedented number of seats. But to add those numbers together so they can support a sustainable government flies in the face of every Israeli political precedent. The next weeks and months will be tortuous and the increasingly likely outcome is just another election.

מבחינתי אזרחי ישראל שווים ולכן גוש נתניהו הפסיד 70-50. אבל למי שמתעקש להתגזען: גוש נתניהו הפסיד בקרב היהודים 53-50 גוש נתניהו הפסיד בקרב המשרתים 53-37

60 אחוז מהציבור הישראלי הראה לנתניהו (הליכוד מגרד את ה-20 אחוז מלמטה) ולשותפיו את הדלת. נקודה.

Netanyahu has essentially cannibalised his partners to get the empty title in a coalition state of “largest party”

70-50 A massive drubbing for the Netanyahu camp. Likud coming out the largest party is a meaningless consolation for Netanyahu

One thing Netanyahu has been good at in previous elections is sucking votes away from his far-right partners, without pushing them below the threshold. This doesn’t change the overall size of his camp, but if it makes him the largest party in the Knesset, it serves his narrative

8pm turnout 8% higher than 2022

At 6pm turnout was 9% higher than it was in 2022. If this remains the trend until voting ends, it could upend the pollsters predictions in various ways. An 80% turnout puts small parties at threshold risk. Which small parties? Probably not Raam, which are boosted by a rise in Arab turnout and probably not the Haredi parties who have a relatively stable base. But Lieberman is at risk. And so are Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who are also vulnerable to a last-minute shift of coalition voters to Netanyahu.

The narrative of tonight’s exit-polls and then the actual results could be very different, depending on who’s writing the headlines. If, for example, Netanyahu’s coalition wins only around 50 seats, some outlets will quickly (and rightly) announce that Netanyahu has been trounced. However, it’s very possible that even if his camp wins only around 50, Netanyahu’s Gevalt! campaign today shifted voters from his allies to Likud and Likud will end up the largest party, which is meaningless in Israel’s coalition system, but some will say that Bibi won. It’s also possible that the Netanyahu camp end up around 52-53 seats, a loss, but the Arab parties win 16-17, meaning the Jewish opposition bloc will also be on 52-53. Some outlets will call that a tie.

So what are the five main questions we’re hoping will be answered by the exit polls at 10pm? First, has the coalition indeed lost any chance of an outright majority? Anything under 55-56 seats should settle that. Second, who has the bigger bloc without the Arab parties and how wide is the margin between the entire opposition (including the Arab parties) and the Netanyahu bloc Third, who is the largest party? It’s either Likud or Yashar. And it shouldn’t really change the overall calculus as it’s about who has the bigger bloc. But the narrative of leading the largest party is important for both Netanyahu and Eisenkot’s claim to have a national mandate (even though they neither party is expected to win over 20% of the vote) Fourth, which parties are hovering around the electoral threshold? If Amcha Yisrael or Reservists or YB or RZ are above/below it could change the overall balance between the blocs Fifth, how many seats will either Arab party win? The answer to that could significantly affect Eisenkot’s prospects of forming a government

There’s a feeling going around that the rising Arab turnout could put Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu in danger of dropping beneath the threshold. I’m doubtful, but even if it does happen, it will add perhaps 2-3 seats to the Netanyahu bloc, not enough to give them a majority. OTOH since Lieberman is the opposition leader who most strenuously opposed cooperation with Arab parties, it could make it easier for Eisenkot to quickly form a minority government with the outside support of Arab parties

מסתובבת תאוריה שהעלייה באחוזי ההצבעה במגזר הערבי יכולים לדחוף את ישראל ביתנו מתחת לאחוז החסימה. מה שכמובן ישמח את גוש נתניהו-חרדים. אבל בפועל, גם אם זה יקרה, וזה סיכוי די קלוש, זה דווקא יקל על הקמת ממשלת מיעוט בראשות איזנקוט עם תמיכה מבחוץ של המפלגות הערביות.

And now the first thunderstorm of the season drowning out loudspeakers. Make of it what you will

In the streets of Jerusalem now a car with Likud flags and loudspeakers blaring the Muezzin call to prayer and “Get out of your homes now. Arabs are voting. You need to save our home!”