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A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether AI is a debt bubble, what quantum risk means for bitcoin, whatâs next for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:44 Has Crypto Bottomed?
03:05 BTCâs Morning Seller Is Gone
04:32 Token Unlocks Into Year End
07:14 Do the Midterms Matter?
09:23 Is AI a Debt Bubble?
10:40 The Trillion AI Capex Math
15:53 Anthropicâs Revenue Is Exploding
19:10 The Reflexive AI Demand Risk
25:00 Why This Isnât 2000
33:51 Cryptoâs Goldilocks Case
36:01 Who Gets Satoshiâs Coins?
37:59 Quantum Fear Lifts ZEC and Pearl
41:49 Has Quantum Changed Your BTC Bet?
48:13 Two Big Themes for Next Year
50:12 Papertradeâs Token Problem
59:11 Kinetiq and the HyperEVM Bet
1:09:31 Why Hyperliquid Users Stay Loyal
1:12:30 PUMP vs FOMO
1:16:29 The Rise of Anti-Social Trading
Is AI demand still being underestimated.
JosĂ©: âOne really interesting thing that Jensen talks about is that actually a third of their revenue is just classical computing moving from CPUs to GPUs.
All these things like data processing, search and recommenders, all these algorithms that used to run on CPUs are now moving to AI compute. And itâs growing 30 to 40% a year.
Thatâs revenue thatâs not even accounted for.â
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether AI is a debt bubble, what quantum risk means for bitcoin, whatâs next for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:44 Has Crypto Bottomed?
03:05 BTCâs Morning Seller Is Gone
04:32 Token Unlocks Into Year End
07:14 Do the Midterms Matter?
09:23 Is AI a Debt Bubble?
10:40 The Trillion AI Capex Math
15:53 Anthropicâs Revenue Is Exploding
19:10 The Reflexive AI Demand Risk
25:00 Why This Isnât 2000
33:51 Cryptoâs Goldilocks Case
36:01 Who Gets Satoshiâs Coins?
37:59 Quantum Fear Lifts ZEC and Pearl
41:49 Has Quantum Changed Your BTC Bet?
48:13 Two Big Themes for Next Year
50:12 Papertradeâs Token Problem
59:11 Kinetiq and the HyperEVM Bet
1:09:31 Why Hyperliquid Users Stay Loyal
1:12:30 PUMP vs FOMO
1:16:29 The Rise of Anti-Social Trading
Delphi Digital retweeted
Institutions want their own rules inside Ethereum blocks.
A normal transaction on Ethereum is visible to everyone before it is included. That has pushed many institutions onto private chains with far less liquidity.
@ETHGasOfficial lets them book space in Ethereum blocks ahead of time. Transactions sent this way skip the public mempool and are screened against the institutionâs own sanctions rules first. Each institution stays in control of its transactions without leaving Ethereum.
Being seen early is expensive for a fund moving a large position. Traders watching the public mempool can spot the trade and buy first, which pushes up the price the fund pays. With reserved blockspace, the fund can buy a whole block and decide what goes ahead of its trade.
Institutions do not have to leave Ethereum for a private chain to set their own rules.
AI needs about $1 trillion in revenue by 2029. Where does it come from?
Kevin: âThe big takeaway for me is thereâs definitely a path forward.
Itâs not super clear, but itâs not as if all this installed compute and infrastructure is not going to earn some type of return on that capex.
Itâs almost like this timeline game right now.â
h/t @venkyganesan
Watch the full episode here.
delphi.link/OctoberHivemind
Gauntlet founder @tarunchitra on who will capture the real money in AI.
âAll the money goes to the top and the bottom. What is the top? The harnesses. Whatâs the bottom? Inference providers.â
New Delphi Podcast with Tarun Chitra (@tarunchitra), founder of Gauntlet and managing partner at Robot Ventures
Robot just led the $90M round in @NousResearch. Tarun spent three to four months on diligence, from OpenRouter data to GitHub forks, before backing Nous and Hermes Agent
We get into why crypto's first run at AI went wrong, why the crypto people who dropped the token won, why OpenClaw is the worst developer experience he's used, and why Hermes is closer to Ubuntu than to Android
He also found Chinese robot makers building on Hermes, and some inference providers gaming cache pricing
His market structure take: all the money goes to the top and the bottom. Harnesses on top, inference underneath. Hermes is like investing in Phantom or FOMO
00:00 Intro
06:34 Robot Leads Nous's $90M Round
09:37 Crypto AI Was Meme Coins With More Steps
14:40 Why Nous Stood Out Early
28:14 Hermes vs OpenClaw
35:39 The End of AI Lock-In
46:33 The Ubuntu of AI
56:17 Microsoft and Nvidia Join the Round
59:42 OpenRouter Is a DEX for AI
1:07:02 All the Money Goes to the Top
Disc. Delphi Ventures co-led the seed of Nous Research and invested again in the Series A and B
Full episode
Delphi Digital retweeted
Beyond the "every SaaS company has to pivot and become a router/harness to survive" thesis, there's another observation:
Open Source AI has made every fintech competitive with one another
It used to be that they were 'frenemies' but now both have their own router/harness/etc.
Gauntlet founder @tarunchitra argues every software company will have to become an AI middleman.
âEvery SaaS company either has to have a harness or be a router because they need to get into the token order flow. Thatâs the easiest thing to monetize.â
Institutions want their own rules inside Ethereum blocks.
A normal transaction on Ethereum is visible to everyone before it is included. That has pushed many institutions onto private chains with far less liquidity.
@ETHGasOfficial lets them book space in Ethereum blocks ahead of time. Transactions sent this way skip the public mempool and are screened against the institutionâs own sanctions rules first. Each institution stays in control of its transactions without leaving Ethereum.
Being seen early is expensive for a fund moving a large position. Traders watching the public mempool can spot the trade and buy first, which pushes up the price the fund pays. With reserved blockspace, the fund can buy a whole block and decide what goes ahead of its trade.
Institutions do not have to leave Ethereum for a private chain to set their own rules.
Read the consulting report for free here.
delphi.link/ETHgas
How much revenue does AI need to make to justify the spending?
Kevin: âIf youâve got $4 trillion of AI capex over the next three years or so, and you assume that capital needs to actually earn some type of return,
you wind up getting to a point where you need about $500 billion of free cash flow by 2029 to support that amount of capex.
Which translates, if you think itâs 50% gross margins, to about a trillion in revenue for the AI compute thatâs actually being installed.â
h/t: @venkyganesan
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether AI is a debt bubble, what quantum risk means for bitcoin, whatâs next for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:44 Has Crypto Bottomed?
03:05 BTCâs Morning Seller Is Gone
04:32 Token Unlocks Into Year End
07:14 Do the Midterms Matter?
09:23 Is AI a Debt Bubble?
10:40 The Trillion AI Capex Math
15:53 Anthropicâs Revenue Is Exploding
19:10 The Reflexive AI Demand Risk
25:00 Why This Isnât 2000
33:51 Cryptoâs Goldilocks Case
36:01 Who Gets Satoshiâs Coins?
37:59 Quantum Fear Lifts ZEC and Pearl
41:49 Has Quantum Changed Your BTC Bet?
48:13 Two Big Themes for Next Year
50:12 Papertradeâs Token Problem
59:11 Kinetiq and the HyperEVM Bet
1:09:31 Why Hyperliquid Users Stay Loyal
1:12:30 PUMP vs FOMO
1:16:29 The Rise of Anti-Social Trading
Delphi Digital retweeted
Onchain options are the largest untapped market in crypto.
Retail demand for options is already proven in traditional markets. In Q2 2026 options brought Robinhood $342M in transaction revenue, more than stocks and crypto combined.
Capturing that demand is the next step for onchain options.
Who will end up with Satoshiâs Bitcoin when quantum arrives?
Ceteris: âItâll either be China or the US who gets Satoshiâs coins and all the old coins.
I know some people think itâs bearish if China gets it and bullish if the US gets it, but I donât really know if thatâs true.
Just because China doesnât let their citizens own Bitcoin doesnât mean they donât want to own a bunch of it.
The size of it is so big that regardless of which one of them gets it, you canât really sell it.â
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether AI is a debt bubble, what quantum risk means for bitcoin, whatâs next for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:44 Has Crypto Bottomed?
03:05 BTCâs Morning Seller Is Gone
04:32 Token Unlocks Into Year End
07:14 Do the Midterms Matter?
09:23 Is AI a Debt Bubble?
10:40 The Trillion AI Capex Math
15:53 Anthropicâs Revenue Is Exploding
19:10 The Reflexive AI Demand Risk
25:00 Why This Isnât 2000
33:51 Cryptoâs Goldilocks Case
36:01 Who Gets Satoshiâs Coins?
37:59 Quantum Fear Lifts ZEC and Pearl
41:49 Has Quantum Changed Your BTC Bet?
48:13 Two Big Themes for Next Year
50:12 Papertradeâs Token Problem
59:11 Kinetiq and the HyperEVM Bet
1:09:31 Why Hyperliquid Users Stay Loyal
1:12:30 PUMP vs FOMO
1:16:29 The Rise of Anti-Social Trading
Gauntlet founder @tarunchitra argues every software company will have to become an AI middleman.
âEvery SaaS company either has to have a harness or be a router because they need to get into the token order flow. Thatâs the easiest thing to monetize.â
New Delphi Podcast with Tarun Chitra (@tarunchitra), founder of Gauntlet and managing partner at Robot Ventures
Robot just led the $90M round in @NousResearch. Tarun spent three to four months on diligence, from OpenRouter data to GitHub forks, before backing Nous and Hermes Agent
We get into why crypto's first run at AI went wrong, why the crypto people who dropped the token won, why OpenClaw is the worst developer experience he's used, and why Hermes is closer to Ubuntu than to Android
He also found Chinese robot makers building on Hermes, and some inference providers gaming cache pricing
His market structure take: all the money goes to the top and the bottom. Harnesses on top, inference underneath. Hermes is like investing in Phantom or FOMO
00:00 Intro
06:34 Robot Leads Nous's $90M Round
09:37 Crypto AI Was Meme Coins With More Steps
14:40 Why Nous Stood Out Early
28:14 Hermes vs OpenClaw
35:39 The End of AI Lock-In
46:33 The Ubuntu of AI
56:17 Microsoft and Nvidia Join the Round
59:42 OpenRouter Is a DEX for AI
1:07:02 All the Money Goes to the Top
Disc. Delphi Ventures co-led the seed of Nous Research and invested again in the Series A and B
Full episode
Delphi Digital retweeted
New Delphi Podcast with Tarun Chitra (@tarunchitra), founder of Gauntlet and managing partner at Robot Ventures
Robot just led the $90M round in @NousResearch. Tarun spent three to four months on diligence, from OpenRouter data to GitHub forks, before backing Nous and Hermes Agent
We get into why crypto's first run at AI went wrong, why the crypto people who dropped the token won, why OpenClaw is the worst developer experience he's used, and why Hermes is closer to Ubuntu than to Android
He also found Chinese robot makers building on Hermes, and some inference providers gaming cache pricing
His market structure take: all the money goes to the top and the bottom. Harnesses on top, inference underneath. Hermes is like investing in Phantom or FOMO
00:00 Intro
06:34 Robot Leads Nous's $90M Round
09:37 Crypto AI Was Meme Coins With More Steps
14:40 Why Nous Stood Out Early
28:14 Hermes vs OpenClaw
35:39 The End of AI Lock-In
46:33 The Ubuntu of AI
56:17 Microsoft and Nvidia Join the Round
59:42 OpenRouter Is a DEX for AI
1:07:02 All the Money Goes to the Top
Disc. Delphi Ventures co-led the seed of Nous Research and invested again in the Series A and B
Full episode
Delphi Digital retweeted
Syncracy Capital co-founder @RyanWatkins_ believes crypto has barely gotten started.
âSome people would ask me, am I late? Iâm like, no, weâre not late. What percentage of finance is any of this? The answer is basically zero.â
A conversation w/ @RyanWatkins_ co-founder of Syncracy Capital, a thesis-driven crypto hedge fund.
We discuss what most people are still missing with Hyperliquid, perps coming to Wall Street, Stan Druckenmiller's bet, why categories don't matter anymore, revenues vs money, respecting the pump, social trading, whether Solana or _____ wins, and finding the next secular trends.
00:00 Intro
00:37 Hyperliquid hyperliquid:native
03:00 Finding Big Ideas
06:22 Hidden Alpha
09:16 Secret to Success
10:31 Beginner's Mindset
11:43 Writing & Conviction
13:31 Wall Street Discovers Hyperliquid
14:45 Druckenmiller's Bet
16:30 Perps Taking Over
19:06 Why Categories Don't Matter
20:13 All of Finance
20:35 Sponsored by Kraken
21:40 Assessing Risks
26:02 Comparative Analysis
30:30 Downstream Effects
34:40 Who wins? solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112
37:30 Finding Next Secular Trends
40:09 Social Trading & Memes
46:51 Weak vs. Strong Form
48:40 How Syncracy Finds Big Ideas
52:00 Revenue and zcash:native
56:00 Respect the Pump
1:00:48 Frameworks & Timing
Grass Founder @0xdrej explains why more web scraping doesnât mean better AI data.
âAnybody these days can go and deploy a crawler and with enough compute, you can go and advertise that youâre crawling insane numbers of pages. The thing is, thereâs a lot of useless stuff on the internet.â
New Delphi Podcast with Andrej Radonjic @0xdrej, founder of Grass
To a website, Grass looks like normal users browsing. Behind it is millions of opted in residential nodes and a data platform that has delivered exabytes of web data to the frontier labs
We get into how AI flipped the hard part of search upside down. The index used to be the moat, and crawling was free. Now AI tooling makes the index cheap, while AI crawlers have pushed the web into blocking everything. The hard part is getting the page at all
Training data is already a profitable business for Grass with most of the top labs and multiple Mag 7 companies as customers. Crawling for that data also means mapping the entire internet, which is what puts Grass in a position to build search on top of it. Contents API is live, Search is next, and multimodal grounding follows
00:00 Intro
00:43 From Nuclear Physics to Web Scraping
03:38 The Pandemic Signal Everyone Missed
07:31 The Smart TV Proxy Scandal
09:10 Why the Internet Is Blocking AI
11:56 Training Data vs Live Data
16:05 Mapping the Entire Internet
18:03 Delivering Exabytes to AI Labs
21:48 What AI Labs Really Pay For
24:43 How Robots Learn From Web Video
33:02 When Labs Change Direction
35:57 One API Call for Any Website
41:58 AI Flipped Search Upside Down
47:03 Can the Network Keep Up?
49:52 The Defense Tech of AI Data
52:58 Why Data Is the Alpha
57:08 Why AI Labs Wonât Buy Slop
59:17 The Metric That Matters Most
01:02:35 The $100 Billion Data Market
01:05:07 Who Actually Owns Grass
01:08:18 What a Real Moat Looks Like
01:13:16 What Happens Next
Disclosure. Delphi Ventures holds $GRASS
Full episode
JosĂ© on why AI doesnât look like a bubble yet.
âIn a bubble you have way less bears. You climb this wall of worry and keep converting people, like, âIâll buy, Iâll buy, Iâll buy.ââ
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether AI is a debt bubble, what quantum risk means for bitcoin, whatâs next for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:44 Has Crypto Bottomed?
03:05 BTCâs Morning Seller Is Gone
04:32 Token Unlocks Into Year End
07:14 Do the Midterms Matter?
09:23 Is AI a Debt Bubble?
10:40 The Trillion AI Capex Math
15:53 Anthropicâs Revenue Is Exploding
19:10 The Reflexive AI Demand Risk
25:00 Why This Isnât 2000
33:51 Cryptoâs Goldilocks Case
36:01 Who Gets Satoshiâs Coins?
37:59 Quantum Fear Lifts ZEC and Pearl
41:49 Has Quantum Changed Your BTC Bet?
48:13 Two Big Themes for Next Year
50:12 Papertradeâs Token Problem
59:11 Kinetiq and the HyperEVM Bet
1:09:31 Why Hyperliquid Users Stay Loyal
1:12:30 PUMP vs FOMO
1:16:29 The Rise of Anti-Social Trading
Delphi Digital retweeted
A conversation w/ @RyanWatkins_ co-founder of Syncracy Capital, a thesis-driven crypto hedge fund.
We discuss what most people are still missing with Hyperliquid, perps coming to Wall Street, Stan Druckenmiller's bet, why categories don't matter anymore, revenues vs money, respecting the pump, social trading, whether Solana or _____ wins, and finding the next secular trends.
00:00 Intro
00:37 Hyperliquid hyperliquid:native
03:00 Finding Big Ideas
06:22 Hidden Alpha
09:16 Secret to Success
10:31 Beginner's Mindset
11:43 Writing & Conviction
13:31 Wall Street Discovers Hyperliquid
14:45 Druckenmiller's Bet
16:30 Perps Taking Over
19:06 Why Categories Don't Matter
20:13 All of Finance
20:35 Sponsored by Kraken
21:40 Assessing Risks
26:02 Comparative Analysis
30:30 Downstream Effects
34:40 Who wins? solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112
37:30 Finding Next Secular Trends
40:09 Social Trading & Memes
46:51 Weak vs. Strong Form
48:40 How Syncracy Finds Big Ideas
52:00 Revenue and zcash:native
56:00 Respect the Pump
1:00:48 Frameworks & Timing