ETF flows don’t lead Bitcoin. They chase it. Correlation of daily net flow with BTC returns: Prior 5 days: 0.54 Prior day: 0.40 Same day: 0.41 Next day: 0.09 Next 5 days: 0.03 The biggest inflow days arrive after the move is done. Before the top 10% of inflow days, BTC was up 7.3% over the prior five days, positive in 97% of cases. Much of it came before New York opened: +1.2% overnight vs +0.2% on a normal day. Top-decile outflow days follow a 4.4% five-day drawdown. Neither carries forward. After top-decile inflows, BTC was higher 20 days later 51% of the time. Showing little correlation with future price movement.

$80.5M of inflows across BTC and ETH ETFs last week. BTC: +$301.2M, ending two straight outflow weeks. Monday to Wednesday brought $1.07B in, then Thursday and Friday took $774M out. Thursday’s -$635.6M was the largest single-day outflow since June 25 (-$691.7M). The level to watch is ~$78.1K, 7% below October 21’s close, now the highest of the past 20 days. Once BTC closes 7% below its 20-day high, ETF flows have historically flipped from +$74M a day to -$72M within a week. Saturday’s $79,107 low came within 1.2% of it. ETH: -$220.7M, a fourth straight outflow week. ETH ETFs have lost $1.22B since September 28, cutting year-to-date flows from +$1.62B to +$400.5M. 14 of 17 October sessions closed negative.