Senior Fellow, @AEI. Studying America's separation of powers. Formerly @RSI, @BrookingsInst. Author of Why Congress, https://xitter.gq/t.co/NbK86BtcWv
Washington, DC
Joined February 2011
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I'm very excited to announce the publication of my new book, Why Congress, this month!
Amazon: amazon.com/Why-Congress-Phil…
Book website: whycongressbook.com/
With some accidental winners in the 2026 House contests, I wondered who are the most unlikely U.S. Reps in history?
My colleague John Fortier points me to Chicago's Mike Flanagan, a Republican who beat Dan Rostenkowski in 1994 and then lost to Rod Blagojevich in 1996! Epic.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michae…
Other good candidates that AI feeds me: Vermont's first statewide elected Democrat in a century, William H. Meyer, elected 1958 for a single term.
thecrimson.com/article/1960/…
Kerry Bentivolio, reindeer farmer, snuck in when Rep. Thad McCotter failed to submit the necessary number of signatures to be on the ballot in 2012. Served a single term.
michiganpublic.org/politics-…
Please revisit the Indiana redistricting fight.
Turns out, Hoosiers' attachment to their particular representatives meant they kept them.
Contrast NC, where GOP tried to squeeze every last bit of partisan advantage, and the House delegation will now mostly be Dems.
New piece from me @thedispatch (which sure is pretty these days). If the assonant headline isn't enough to pull you in, come for the discussion of the competing theories of representation that are slugging it out in our gerrymandering wars this year.
See the Senate floor speeches, too. xitter.gq/PhilipWallach/status/1…
Video archived here: iga.in.gov/session/2026/vide…
Goode, lauding "Hoosier common sense": 1:13-1:26.
Deery, a standout, explaining why he believes mid-cycle redistricting harms people's trust in faithful representation, and why his institutional conservatism leads him to oppose: 2:01-2:09.
Garten, most impassioned speech for redistricting, basically the Flight 93 argument: 2:10-2:25.
Gaskill, most involved presentation showing why Ds have it coming, and then more Flight 93 stuff, 2:27-2:56.
Rep. Jeff Hurd seems to be holding on to his seat (CO-03), one of the rare good-news stories for the GOP in this midterm. Very much worth revisiting this @charleshilu73 story from March for lessons.
How Republican leaders successfully influenced Trump to re-endorse an anti-tariff Republican in a swing district. New in @thedispatch with @DavidMDrucker thedispatch.com/article/trum…
Philip Wallach retweeted
This is wild. Democrats would've basically swept the state if Republicans redistricted as Trump demanded. The only survivor would've been Erin Houchin.
This is insane! Here is a map of yesterday’s Indiana House results if they were drawn under the attempted Republican gerrymander map from last Fall. Thank you to @Vulst3 for breaking down the data to make this map. The gerrymander could’ve netted us a 9-0 or 8-1 map potentially!
On top of all the other U.S. House craziness this year, behold: the return of the New England Republican!
The Maine secretary of state's office has announced that #ME02 is going to ranked-choice tabulations. Paul LePage (R) got a majority of votes in the race, but not a majority of *total ballots cast.* However, this is just a formality; LePage should still win.
This sentiment made more sense when 2026 was going to be a normal good or excellent midterm year for Dems.
Given that it was a historic blowout that will give Dems the biggest working House majority in generations, they should really aim higher! 290 veto override in play.
Oversight will dominate the Democrats’ agenda come January. The risk is that they get bogged down in futile attempts to boot Donald Trump from the White House economist.com/united-states/…
Seems to have won in MN-01. Will be interested to see how members-elect like Johnson shape the Democratic Party going forward.
Plenty of new members will want their party to solidify its position as the normal guys fighting for the American dream; plenty of others not!
Thinking ahead: there should be 290 votes in the House and 67 votes in the Senate to restrict presidential power in many ways. Thinking about 2029 should motivate plenty of GOP members.
Before yesterday, veto overrides seemed far-fetched. Today, they are very much in play.
Also worth watching out for: chambers as litigants. Going to be a lot of issues hauled into court.
Looking like Victoria Broderick, in TN-04, may win "most surprising House winner" in a very competitive field.
From the @nashvillebanner:
Philip Wallach retweeted
The 1994 “revolution” saw Rs win the popular vote by 6.8 pts
2006 was D + 7.9
2010 was R + 6.8
2018 was D + 8.6
2026 Ds are tracking toward a 13-pt popular vote win
Have to go back half a century—the post-Watergate wipeout of 1974, D + 16.8 pts—to find anything like this.
Note well.
Republicans who voted to remove Speaker Kevin McCarthy in October 2023:
Andy Biggs - leaving, ran for AZ Gov (lost)
Ken Buck - left House March 2024
Tim Burchett - reelected for the 120th
Eli Crane - losing a nailbiter as of now
Matt Gaetz - left after 2024
Bob Good - lost 2024 primary when Trump opposed
Nancy Mace - leaving, ran for SC Gov (lost), seat flipped
Matt Rosendale - left 2024 to run for MT Gov (withdrew)
Looking beyond that crazy 8, if we look at who initially didn't vote for McCarthy back in January 2023, the trend is less obvious, but still discernible:
Dan Bishop - left 2024, ran for NC AG (lost)
Lauren Boebert - lost 2026
Josh Brecheen - reelected 2026
Mike Cloud - probably reelected 2026
Andrew Clyde - reelected 2026
Byron Donalds - left 2026, Gov.-Elect of Florida
Paul Gosar - reelected 2026
Andy Harris - reelected 2026
Anna Paulina Luna - reelected 2026, barely
Mary Miller - reelected 2026
Ralph Norman - left 2026, ran for SC Sen (lost prim)
Andy Ogles - lost 2026 primary
Scott Perry - lost 2026
Chip Roy - left 2026, ran for TX AG (lost prim)
Keith Self - reelected 2026
Victoria Spartz - lost 2026