All things on what people think and how they vote. Exec Director Elections and Surveys at CBS News.
Joined February 2012
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Interesting research @nkagan_official following up on your real-time unpacking of Kalshi market moves on Tues
1. Brier scores on Kalshi were lower (i.e. better) than all models at 9am of Election Day, when information is maximal and all modelers made their final calls. That’s when it matters most.
2. Kalshi market calibration improves as harder-to-call races are added to the sample.
3. Even with lower volumes 3-months out, Kalshi markets rivaled professional forecaster projections.
Well @ChuckRocha walking through the Texas county by county breakdown with you was a highlight of the night for me
You did great @austinjpark !
Honored for VoteHub to be a part of The Nerd Show hosted by CBS News on election night.
Had the opportunity to chat with @SalvantoCBS on Annie Andrews's historic win in South Carolina ⬇️
Thank you! Great work gang -
Thank you to @CBSNews for having us on The Nerd Show, and the millions of people who tuned in to watch.
What a blast.
Thank you to everyone who watched NerdShow -
I deeply appreciate you spending time with us on the night - I've never had more fun ...hope you did too -
Thanks @benwfreeman1 ! Was so great getting @nkagan_official and Kalshi insights on nerdshow!
CBS had a really good election night “Nerd show”
Shoutout @SalvantoCBS, the @VoteHub team, @nkagan_official, and the whole CBS team
What a blast to work with the gang from @VoteHub and the energy, innovation and intellect they bring... super fun!
It has been a pleasure working with @SalvantoCBS and the CBS Data Desk throughout this election cycle.
Election night - join me and the great @CHueyBurns for all results, all the time - on the @cbsnews Nerd Show - streaming live here and on our stream and on youtube --
youtube.com/watch?v=psO-rZpW…
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
For a deep dive into the CBS News Decision Desk, join @SalvantoCBS, @CHueyBurns and the team on “The Nerd Show” for a look at the key numbers, counties, and results driving how midterm races are unfolding in real time. Stream live on X and YouTube starting Tuesday at 5pm ET.
Democrats maintain lead in bid for a House - on pace for 229 in our model... range could reach into the 230s -but Reps do have very narrow path to hold, too.
That D lead has been durable but hasn't expanded either
i.e., there isn't a growing wave, at least not as of today.
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
Against a backdrop of continued concern about inflation & the economy, Dems maintain a lead in a bid for a House majority.
Currently on pace for 229 seats in our CBS News House model estimate, which translates voters' congressional preferences into seats.
Potential range of outcomes could reach into the 230s, but Reps do still have a very narrow path to hold.
tinyurl.com/324de9rt
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
Talarico's standing is helped by more Democrats saying they'll definitely vote. That leaves the dynamic in the closing weeks very much up for grabs. If more Republicans decide to vote, it could certainly change.
tinyurl.com/3zv3caa2
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
Latino voters in Texas swung toward Trump in 2024, but most are now backing Democrat Talarico.
They are more likely than voters overall to say higher prices have been a hardship or difficult, & most do not think Paxton has the right personal character to serve as a Senator. tinyurl.com/3zv3caa2
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
Texas just has a lot more Republicans than Democrats. That means Talarico needs to do overwhelmingly well with independents and get some vote shift among GOPers, or activate enough new voters to offset that.
tinyurl.com/3zv3caa2
Texas Senate is... tight — essentially tied — and now all about...turnout.
cbsnews.com/news/texas-senat…
This stuff is great. For detail down to the towns and precincts, reads on early vote, all of it. Super excited.
Yep - Join the great @CHueyBurns and me and the amazing gang at @VoteHub for all the data all the time...
NEW: CBS News to launch election night "nerd show" for politics junkies axios.com/2026/10/07/cbs-new…
I get that people want to talk about "the polls," are they right etc. Fine.
But some of what you're seeing is a simple, political story:
Numbers driven by lower turnout expression from Reps.
(And of course that can change.)
So the GOP voters who don't think there's enough admin focus on inflation are less likely to vote - these "reluctant reps" aren't crossing party lines, but may stay home... surely the key to watch in coming weeks if this changes...or doesn't.
Dissatisfaction with prices may be impacting the GOP vote.
Republicans are less likely to say they'll definitely turn out than Democrats are.
Reps who say the admin isn't putting enough focus on prices are less likely to say they'll definitely vote than those who think it is.
tinyurl.com/pv7w75z3
