NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin used his October 27 call with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store to reiterate Moscow’s longstanding demands in Ukraine and rearticulate Moscow’s claims that NATO expansion is among the “root causes” of the war. Putin also stated that “root causes” must be resolved as preconditions for any future peace negotiations. Other Key Takeaways: Russia and Ukraine began observing a limited ceasefire in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, on October 27 to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries and evacuate civilians from the settlement. Both sides are reportedly abiding by the ceasefire terms as of this writing. It remains unclear how the Russian authorities will treat Ukrainians evacuated from Oleshky and whether Russian occupation authorities will provide the residents a legitimate and duress-free choice to return to Ukrainian government-controlled Ukraine. The Russian 26th Tank Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District) operating in the Kupyansk direction is reportedly planning to disband several platoons to create an unmanned aircraft system (UAS) company. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on October 27. Russian forces launched an unspecified number of Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles and 280 drones against Ukraine overnight.

It is unclear whether Putin is lying about Russian gains or being lied to by his own military—or both. Russian military correspondents constantly complain of what they call “beautiful reports” that Russian military units send to higher headquarters, claiming gains they have not made. Ukrainian forces say that they have been able to use the Russian military’s own internal culture of lying to their advantage, luring Russian troops into traps because the Russians think that they are moving through territory they control. Leaked Russian military maps show phantom gains, often matching Putin’s claims. The pervasive lying within the Russian military is a problem for Russian soldiers, but likely an advantage for Putin, as it supports his own efforts to present Russian forces as advancing and winning when, in fact, they are doing neither.

SPECIAL REPORT | NEW: Oleshky: How Russia Governs Through Humanitarian Decline The ongoing humanitarian crisis in the occupied Oleshky area reflects the coercive logic of Russian occupation governance in a heavily damaged frontline city. Oleshky has become a test case for Russian rule in an area marked by depopulation, damaged infrastructure, chronic insecurity, and growing isolation from the rest of Ukraine. Rather than reversing these conditions, Russian occupation authorities appear to govern through them, leveraging residents’ increasing dependence on occupation-controlled services, institutions, and administrative systems to sustain control. As humanitarian vulnerabilities deepen and alternatives to occupation governance diminish, humanitarian decline and Russian occupation rule become mutually reinforcing. Russian forces occupied these left bank settlements on February 24, 2022 — the first day of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine — during the initial military push to occupy all of Kherson Oblast from positions in occupied Crimea. Russian troops largely maintained a distance from Oleshky itself in the first few weeks of the invasion, and remaining elements of the Ukrainian city administration attempted to organize self-governance efforts and self-sufficient security patrols while refusing to directly cooperate with Russian soldiers. Geolocated images show Russian forces had officially entered Oleshky as of late March 2022, breaking the tacit governance agreement that had been in place with the remaining Ukrainian officials. Russian forces and occupation officials took full control of Oleshky in late April 2022, however, and about 40 percent of the pre-war population fled to Ukrainian-held territory while security checkpoints were still open.