Five years to build a $100,000 trading account. One month to lose 90% of it. A trader messaged me after exactly that happened. He has a wife and young kids, knew he’d made mistakes, and wanted to know how to start over. What should he study? What did he need to relearn? I couldn’t honestly prescribe a book or a strategy without understanding how he trades. But before thinking about getting the money back, I’d want to understand how he was able to lose that much. Sometimes the thing you need to unlearn is something your earlier wins taught you to trust. You take too much risk, it works, and suddenly it doesn’t feel like too much risk anymore. I’d start rebuilding in this order… Risk first. Know what would invalidate the idea, plan the exit, and size the position around what you can afford to lose. The amount you want to make back cannot be what decides your size. Directional bias. Before hunting for an entry, understand which side appears to have the advantage and what would change that view. Entry conditions. Be specific about what needs to happen before you trade. Feeling left behind or needing a win isn’t a setup. Then journal the decisions, not just the results. Why did I enter? Where was I wrong? Did I follow the plan? What did I change once money was on the line? That’s how you start separating what needs more study from what needs to stop. Getting the money back matters. Of course it does. But you can recover your account without correcting the habits that emptied it. Rebuild the trader, not just the balance.

Someone else’s good news is not a report card on your life. A friend gets promoted. A business takes off. Someone buys the house. Celebrate it. You’ll get to enjoy a lot more wins when they don’t all have to be yours.

No one tells you how hard it is to rewire your brain to allow amazing things to happen after experiencing so much trauma or pain. Blessings exist... Let it happen.

I think one of the biggest problems in Crypto X is that people desperately want to believe someone knows exactly what’s going to happen next. Someone sent me a Bitcoin video today. I almost never watch these, but something caught my attention. The guy has roughly the same number of YouTube subscribers as me, yet his videos get 10 to 20 times the views. More power to him. I was genuinely curious, so I watched. His primary Bitcoin forecast? $80K → $60K → $110K → $40K. Yep. He’s mapped out the next year or so, apparently. Now, here’s what made it interesting. This same analyst had previously insisted Bitcoin was headed straight to $40K when it was near $60K. Wrong. Then insisted Bitcoin couldn’t break $82K and would head lower. Wrong again. And now he’s explaining this new roadmap with the same incredible confidence. Look, being wrong is part of trading. I’m wrong plenty. That’s not my criticism. It’s the certainty. Think about it. We’re around $80K, and before Bitcoin can even reach $60K, it has to lose several important levels where buyers may respond. Then we’re supposed to know it will reverse, climb nearly 100%, break through multiple major resistance areas, and collapse another 60%? Maybe it happens. Maybe it doesn’t. But even if that exact sequence eventually played out, what did it teach you about trading? Where’s the directional bias for TODAY? Where are the levels worth acting on? What reaction would justify an entry? Where are you wrong? I think this is one of the biggest problems with financial social media. People are drawn to the person who sounds like he knows, while some genuinely outstanding traders with repeatable processes get a fraction of the attention. And I feel for the people trying to learn. They’re surrounded by confidence, predictions and impressive-sounding narratives, but very little instruction on how to actually make decisions. There’s no knowing, only edge. The sooner you get comfortable saying “I don’t know,” the sooner you can stop trying to predict every move and start learning how to trade the opportunities that actually develop. Certainty sells. Edge pays.

One of the earliest warnings that Bitcoin’s top was forming wasn’t on the Bitcoin chart. It was on BTC/SPX The ratio peaked last summer and began making lower highs while Bitcoin was still near its highs. If you only watched BTCUSD, the shift was easy to miss. Against the S&P, Bitcoin had already started losing the competition for capital. And at the bare minimum, Bitcoin has to outperform the S&P. You get 500 companies, deep liquidity, and far less volatility. If Bitcoin can’t beat that benchmark, why take the extra risk? That’s a big reason I had very little interest in being structurally long Bitcoin through this decline. Today gets my attention because Bitcoin is holding up while stocks are getting hit and BTC/SPX is pushing higher. But one day doesn’t change a year-long trend. Coming out of the last bear market, this ratio began building higher lows before Bitcoin became the better trade. That’s what I want to see now... higher lows, higher highs, and actual structure. The S&P doesn’t have to crash. Bitcoin just has to become the better trade again.

GOOD MORNING BULLS. Say it back if you know your best days in this market are still ahead of you. We’re all gonna make it.

I love this area for spot Bitcoin buys. Not because the chart looks good. It doesn’t. But some of the best buying opportunities I’ve had over the years looked pretty ugly at the time. Think about what’s happening here. Bears have spent roughly 35 days grinding BTC from $86.2K down to $79.7K. They’ve made progress, sure, but they haven’t taken nearly as much ground as you might expect. Meanwhile, daily momentum has undergone a substantial reset without price suffering a comparable collapse. That’s the kind of underlying strength I pay attention to. Could we see $74K to $76K? Absolutely. I’d welcome another opportunity there. But there’s a reason I like a spot ladder here rather than waiting for the perfect entry. Sometimes you get that deeper discount. Sometimes the market takes off and never gives you the chance. Perps are a different game. There, I want a specific reaction, a pullback to enter, and a clear place to be wrong. Precision matters when leverage is involved. For longer-term spot accumulation, I’m much more interested in building a position at attractive prices and being comfortable adding lower if the opportunity comes. I’d rather start buying at wholesale prices and risk getting another discount than wait for everything to look beautiful and end up paying retail.

I may be out of the top 10 now, but I’m still accumulating, still believing, and never selling!