Latest Portfolio:
Heaviest weights are $DVN (recent add), $QCOM , $SKHY and $LLY; recently upsized $RRX and $CCXI. Cut metals exposure in half last week after being heavily overweight gold/silver, while leaning a bit harder into robotics ($CCXI, $INDI) ahead of the Unitree IPO catalyst—likely trimming that theme after next week.
ALT Heaviest weights are $DVN (recent add), $QCOM (tragic), $SKHY and $LLY; recently upsized $RRX and $CCXI. Cut metals exposure in half this week after being heavily overweight gold/silver, while leaning a bit harder into robotics ($CCXI, $INDI) ahead of the Unitree IPO catalyst—likely trimming that theme after next week.
Portfolio Update/Names I’m Accumulating on the Dip
AI Infra / Power
$FLNC
$TE
$POWL
$ETN
$CLSK
$CSIQ
Defense & Drones
$KTOS
$AVAV
Semis/Hardware/Photonics
$QCOM
$TXN
$WOLF
$MU
$SNDK
$MRVL
$COHR
Chemicals / AI Materials
$ENTG
$CC
Automation & Sensors
$OUST
$ZBRA
$LPTH
Metals & Scarcity
$SLV
$ERO
$HL
$MP
Space & Aerospace
$RKLB
$LUNR
$RDW
$FLY
$VOYG
Health / Biotech
$LLY
$ABSI
$ABCL
$HIMS
Energy / Inflation Hedge
$XLE
High-Beta / Quantum
$INFQ
$XNDU
Core Crypto Holds
$HYPE
$ZEC
$TIG
$BTC
Taking foot off the pedal with some of my $MU / $DRAM positioning.
Rotating some capital into a few less-stretched thematics.
Power: $VST $TLN $ETN
Inflation / hard assets: silver, gold, copper, $BTC
Crypto beta (privacy x AI): $ZEC, $TIG
Storage / lithium: $CSIQ, $FLNC (holding)
Strategic materials: $MP $UUUU
Biotech: $ABCL $HIMS
Think solar is a good medium-term bet coming out of Hormuz. Energy independence will
be a sticky narrative. Nuclear fits too but solar is the more immediate play - scales faster, politically clean. Few distressed names at good valuations:
$FSLR -> 7.5x forward. Only US manufacturer at scale.
$SHLS -> EBOS, 12x forward. Panel-agnostic.
$DQ -> polysilicon at book value. Cycle bottom.
$CSIQ -> $5.6B revenue, sub-$1B cap. 4x forward.
Note* trying to stay away from some of the more residential, rate-sensitive names
On trading the bull market and how to approach things from a psychological perspective. This is primarily meant for all ze aspiring perp tradooors who want to add a bit more stress and little less sleep into their life.
Hope this helps.
👇
First of all, I think something that is a bit misleading is that perp trading is easiest during a bull market. I actually think this is incorrect (well maybe last bull, but I was not a perp trader that time around). For reference, my best year was 2022.
In the heat of a bull market, emotions of missing out inevitably force participants into an emotional rollercoaster, leading to irrational thoughts of why you should have caught a certain move on some random coin that you didn’t know the name of last week or that hadn't moved in 1+ years.
The reality is very few people are actually catching the crazy moves you see plastered all over your timeline and the ones that are catching them are often the same people with PnL swings that would make any sane person's heart skip a beat. Many of these participants (not all, ahem @bitbitcrypto ) eventually strike out by blowing up or chopping themselves to death; this style of trading/gambling is a high-octane fleeting game of attrition for most.
The visceral feeling of missing "THE trade" or "THE move" is often the catalyst that sets into motion a sequence of half-hazard fomo bets with no clear execution plan. The end result is often being forced out of your positions during the inevitable market flush.
The key problem in this scenario is the market was in charge of when you closed your position instead of you being in charge. Worse still, is the fact that you were preoccupied with not blowing up your account instead of focusing on bidding alt liquidation flushes of 20+% for the easiest/quickest 10-20% return that exists in crypto.
I really can't stress this point enough, I think a lot of people think being overexposed in a handful of positions while prices are flash crashing is the worst part about a flash crash; the reality is, the worst part about being over-allocated when prices are flushing is that your head is in the complete wrong state of mind as some of the best opportunities in the market present themselves. Instead of being greedy and setting bids, your mind instantly goes into protection mode and often results in panic closing near the lows.
In choppy markets, price action often moves in mini-cycles. A giant market flush is often the start of a mini market cycle of prices trending; this might last anywhere between a week to a few months depending on the volatility/momentum in the market. As markets become more volatile and momentum driven, the timeline of these cycles generally compresses (Look at the last 2 months vs the rest of 2023 as an example). If you start a market cycle on the wrong side of the move and only start buying back into the market after prices have stabilized and are already back above initial selloff levels, you are likely setting yourself up for pain ahead unless you are extremely disciplined.
In general, there is no silver bullet to solve all these problems and the best solution is time in the market coupled with mental resilience/acuity.
Some basic pointers are listed below to help get you in the right mindset when trading. Keep in mind it is much easier to preach the correct framework for trading a market than it is to actually implement, I live this reality daily… but having a framework in the back of your mind and knowing the mistakes you are making can help you be a more cognizant trader.
1) Identify the Macro Trend
From a high time frame perspective, identify which direction the market is trending. For example, currently, I think we are in a broad bull trend that could extend into 2024/25. This will serve as my base bias when considering smaller time frames
2) Within the Macro Trend Identify the Micro Trend
Break the broad-macro trend into two categories, strong vs weak, for the shorter time frames (weeks/months). If you are unsure of the micro trend, consolidate your positions and default to the market leaders BTC and ETH for exposure. Nothing wrong with sitting in either of these assets during a broader bull, when markets seem sketchy or at an inflection point.
3) Take Profits
Drill into your head that when prices are going up you should be taking profits at intervals specific to your gameplan for a trade. This will allow you to free up headspace and focus on where those funds should be reallocated next (could be the same position). I can't stress enough how much your view of the market can change when you are no longer mentally consumed by a handful of fully open positions.
Likewise, when prices are going down, you should make a habit of bidding coins with good setups that you want exposure to. As long as your broader thesis about the bull market is correct, buying when prices are depressed puts you in a notably better position when markets revert to the upside. This sounds so straight forward that it shouldn’t even be mentioned, but ironically this is one of the hardest practices to execute on. I don’t care how seasoned a trader you are there is something innate in people, myself included, about wanting exposure to an asset only after prices have started going up and wanting nothing to do with it once prices correct.
4). Build Parallel Spot Positions
Build spot positions in projects you are the most long term bullish on and also actively trade them in parallel. This will allow you to trade the project more purely. Something about having your spot allocation sitting onchain makes executing a trade strategically, devoid of emotion, so much easier.
5) Hedge with Counterpositions in the Majors.
This is a bit more technical and often requires being very in-tune with market flows, but if your gut tells you alts are about to have a significant run, hedge a potentially over-allocated basket of levered alt positions with a counter position in the majors. This should dampen the blow if markets turn against you and seeking counter-balance in the majors allows you to enter in and out of position with size without sacrificing much on slippage. This is a technique I use often, but definitely something that takes practice. The end result is it often dampens returns to both the upside and downside, but can allow you to get away with a position that might be a bit too large in an altcoin you think is about to break out.
Closing Thoughts:
More broadly, do your best to build positions when prices are moving counter to what you suspect is the prevailing trend. Take profits often and if you need to be in a position rotate those profits into more stable assets like BTC/ETH that should dampen the effects of the market while still allowing you to be an active participant with a finger on the pulse.
Note: This info is primarily geared towards perps traders who like to manage a basket of positions at once, but still contains ideas that could be applicable to many situations.
In general, the best advice is probably to just become an on-chain maxi in one or two of your favorite chains and stay away from leverage trading, but if you must dip your toes into the deep end of the pool, might be good to take some of the aforementioned points into consideration.
Happy trading and see you on the other side of the liquidation candle. 🫡🫡🫡