Anti-War

Title: What I Saw in Trump’s Talk With Sisi Yesterday I may see yesterday’s Trump talk with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi differently from many people. Yes, many Ethiopians are angry, and I understand that. But on the flip side, I see at least two good things for Ethiopia. First, it exposed the very weakness of those two Ethiopian experts who keep telling us Ethiopia should negotiate with anyone, anywhere, anytime, under any condition. The same people who speak so confidently on zoom and podcasts, as if they understand diplomacy better than everyone else. The irony is that they thank each other for their failure. Now the Ethiopian people can see their disaster idea clearly. They were wrong before, and yesterday exposed it again. Who’s a dump can listen them anymore? and that is a good thing. Second, Trump made the situation very clear. He did not hide where he stands. He showed plainly that he is helping Egypt’s framing, not Ethiopia’s interest. No mask, no pretense of being neutral. And strangely, that clarity helps Ethiopia. If the government now chooses to enter a negotiation while Trump is openly taking Egypt’s side, it can no longer say it did not know. When a mediator already speaks like Egypt’s lawyer before the process even begins, there is no reason to pretend the table is neutral. In 2020, when Ethiopia nearly walked into the Washington draft trap, many gave Prime Minister @AbiyAhmedAli the benefit of the doubt. He was less experienced in this file then, and many of us believed the government had learned from it. But there is no excuse now. The government is more experienced, the bias is clearer, the danger is in plain sight. If Ethiopia enters another mediation already highly tilted toward Egypt’s interest, it will be judged by the Ethiopian people and by the generations that come after. And this is not really about today’s politics. Abbay is more than a river. It is the backbone of Ethiopia’s 70% surface-water future, the inheritance of every Ethiopian child not yet born. A binding deal under a mediator who has already framed Egypt as the victim does not settle the dam. It could chain the future of the river, every farm, every city, the power Ethiopia needs to grow, the reserve it needs to survive a drought, to a colonial number Ethiopia never signed. That is not diplomacy. That is handing away what belongs to the unborn. Government cadres and online defenders will not save anyone from history. And history is not kind to governments that sign away the survival of their own nation. The Ottoman government signed the Treaty of Sèvres in 1920, the deal that would have torn apart the Turkish heartland. The nation rejected it, the old order lost all legitimacy, the sultanate was abolished, and Sèvres was buried and replaced by Lausanne. In China, the moment the Versailles settlement handed Shandong to Japan instead of returning it, the people rose in the May Fourth Movement, officials were dismissed, and the cabinet was forced out within weeks. China refused to sign. When a government trades away what the people believe is their survival, it does not keep their trust for long. So that is the positive side I take from yesterday. The pressure is now visible, and so is the bias. The government has no excuse left. Talk where talk is fair, technical cooperation, data sharing, dam safety, drought coordination, under African Union leadership and the principle of equitable and reasonable use. But hold the lines that do not move. No 1959 quota. No fixed release that protects Egypt’s quota while Ethiopia’s share remains undefined. No foreign veto over Ethiopia’s own dams. And no mediator who framed Egypt as the victim before a balanced process even began. 2020 was the year Ethiopia stood firm and was proven right. Stand again. This water is not yours to trade away, and not yours to hand to a biased referee. It belongs to those not yet born, and one day they will read what was done in their name.