Sondaże, średnie sondażowe i analiza polityczna🇵🇱🇺🇸🇪🇺
Joined June 2025
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Wyniki referendum o odwołanie prezydenta Krakowa Aleksandra Miszalskiego:
🟣Tak: 97,9%
🟠Nie: 2,1%
W niemal wszystkich obwodach za odwołaniem zagłosowało co najmniej 90%. W 10 obwodach za odwołaniem zagłosowało 100% wyborców!
Wyniki w obwodach oraz link do interaktywnej mapy👇🏻
Democratic turnout is at 🔵36.3%. Republicans are at 🔴27.4%
Republicans have a 1.4% lead in ballots cast, but Democrats have expanded their turnout advantage to nearly 9 points!
231elections retweeted
Day 9 of early voting saw a continued Republican turnout advantage but still represents a big shift towards Dems vs 2022 and 2024.
Shift in turnout toward Dems by day compared to 2024:
Day 1: 🔵D+24
Day 2: 🔵D+23
Day 3: 🔵D+20
Day 4: 🔵D+15
Day 5: 🔵D+14
Day 6: 🔵D+16
Day 7: 🔵D+16
Day 8: 🔵D+13
Day 9: 🔵D+9
Shift through days 1-9: 🔵D+16.3
231elections retweeted
From the NYT/Siena Florida poll
Trump approval:
🔴Disapprove: 53%
🟢Approve: 43%
Opinion of Angie Nixon:
🟢Favorable: 34%
🟠Unfavorable: 25%
Opinion of Ashley Moody:
🟢Favorable: 42%
🟠Unfavorable: 25%
Opinion of David Jolly:
🟢Favorable: 36%
🟠Unfavorable: 30%
Opinion of Byron Donalds:
🟢Favorable: 44%
🟠Unfavorable: 34%
Day 9 of early voting saw a continued Republican turnout advantage but still represents a big shift towards Dems vs 2022 and 2024.
Shift in turnout toward Dems by day compared to 2024:
Day 1: 🔵D+24
Day 2: 🔵D+23
Day 3: 🔵D+20
Day 4: 🔵D+15
Day 5: 🔵D+14
Day 6: 🔵D+16
Day 7: 🔵D+16
Day 8: 🔵D+13
Day 9: 🔵D+9
Shift through days 1-9: 🔵D+16.3
From the NYT/Siena Florida poll
Trump approval:
🔴Disapprove: 53%
🟢Approve: 43%
Opinion of Angie Nixon:
🟢Favorable: 34%
🟠Unfavorable: 25%
Opinion of Ashley Moody:
🟢Favorable: 42%
🟠Unfavorable: 25%
Opinion of David Jolly:
🟢Favorable: 36%
🟠Unfavorable: 30%
Opinion of Byron Donalds:
🟢Favorable: 44%
🟠Unfavorable: 34%
231elections retweeted
Only 44% of South Carolina likely voters believe Graham (R) has the right experience to be an effective senator.
54% believe Andrews (D) has that experience!
Candidate quality is driving Democrats’ over performance here
NYT/Siena poll | 10/19-10/26 LV
US Senate South Carolina 2026
🟦Annie Andrews 48%
🟥Darline Graham 48% (incumbent)
Link to poll: nytimes.com/2026/10/28/upsho…
231elections retweeted
Following a week of better than expected early vote turnout by Democrats, NYT/Siena is out with their final FL poll!
Senate:
🔴Ashley Moody: 50%
🔵Angie Nixon: 44%
Governor:
🔴Byron Donalds: 48%
🔵David Jolly: 44%
FL-GOV looking increasingly competitive with election day in less than a week!
Only 44% of South Carolina likely voters believe Graham (R) has the right experience to be an effective senator.
54% believe Andrews (D) has that experience!
Candidate quality is driving Democrats’ over performance here
NYT/Siena poll | 10/19-10/26 LV
US Senate South Carolina 2026
🟦Annie Andrews 48%
🟥Darline Graham 48% (incumbent)
Link to poll: nytimes.com/2026/10/28/upsho…
231elections retweeted
Sondaż NYT/Siena pokazuje REMIS w Karolinie Południowej:
🔴Graham (R): 48%
🔵Andrews (D): 48%
W 2024 roku Trump wygrał tu z przewagą 🔴18 punktów
To pierwszy sondaż z sondażowni wysokiej jakości w tym stanie. Po jego uwzględnieniu średnia nadal pokazuje minimalną przewagę Grahama
Following a week of better than expected early vote turnout by Democrats, NYT/Siena is out with their final FL poll!
Senate:
🔴Ashley Moody: 50%
🔵Angie Nixon: 44%
Governor:
🔴Byron Donalds: 48%
🔵David Jolly: 44%
FL-GOV looking increasingly competitive with election day in less than a week!
Sondaż NYT/Siena pokazuje REMIS w Karolinie Południowej:
🔴Graham (R): 48%
🔵Andrews (D): 48%
W 2024 roku Trump wygrał tu z przewagą 🔴18 punktów
To pierwszy sondaż z sondażowni wysokiej jakości w tym stanie. Po jego uwzględnieniu średnia nadal pokazuje minimalną przewagę Grahama
Październik 19-26, n=707 prawdopodobnych wyborców (LV)
Średnia: 231elections.com/midterms-20…
231elections retweeted
Democrats are running ahead of their turnout at this point in 2022. Current turnout (% of party’s registered voters):
🔵Dems: 33%
🔴GOP: 24.7%
2022 through day 9:
🔵Dems: 25.2%
🔴GOP: 27%
231elections retweeted
3.5 million Floridians have now voted, putting turnout at 25.5%
🔵33% of registered Democrats and 🔴24.7% of registered Republicans have voted so far
Democrats are running ahead of their turnout at this point in 2022. Current turnout (% of party’s registered voters):
🔵Dems: 33%
🔴GOP: 24.7%
2022 through day 9:
🔵Dems: 25.2%
🔴GOP: 27%
231elections retweeted
In person early vote yesterday was better for Republicans, but still represents a big shift towards Dems compared to 2024.
Shift in turnout toward Dems by day:
Day 1: 🔵D+24
Day 2: 🔵D+23
Day 3: 🔵D+20
Day 4: 🔵D+15
Day 5: 🔵D+14
Day 6: 🔵D+16
Day 7: 🔵D+16
Day 8: 🔵D+13
Shift through days 1-8: 🔵D+17.5
In person early vote yesterday was better for Republicans, but still represents a big shift towards Dems compared to 2024.
Shift in turnout toward Dems by day:
Day 1: 🔵D+24
Day 2: 🔵D+23
Day 3: 🔵D+20
Day 4: 🔵D+15
Day 5: 🔵D+14
Day 6: 🔵D+16
Day 7: 🔵D+16
Day 8: 🔵D+13
Shift through days 1-8: 🔵D+17.5
