It's up: transformle.xyz/
New puzzle every day. Guess the transform from the chart (winsorize, z-score, gaussian rank, lag, etc). Endless mode if you want to keep going.
Lmk what you think.
Wiktor retweeted
A thread of practical ways to learn how to trade crypto funding
The common method is to learn a bunch of nerd stuff and then get liquidated, scammed, hacked or rugged
Instead I propose funding a DeFi wallet with a small amount of money ($100 is fine) and FAFO
/1
Wiktor retweeted
Want to understand how the best models in Numerai crush the competition every era? 🧵
Cue: Feature Exposure
Feature Exposure is a diagnostic metric measuring how much your model depends on specific features.
High exposure creates regime-dependent performance and should generally be reduced.
Feature Neutralization is the technique for reducing exposure by removing linear feature relationships from predictions.
It:
1) Uses pseudoinverse projection to residualize predictions
2) Preserves higher-order interactions while removing direct effects
3) Can be tuned via proportion parameter and feature selection
The Core Trade-off:
Lower exposure = more consistent performance but potentially lower correlation. The goal is finding your optimal balance.
Best Practice:
Selectively neutralize to the riskiest features with a tuned proportion parameter, rather than fully neutralizing to all features.
---
This is the TLDR of feature exposures.
Liked what you read?
Let's strike a deal.
> You RT
> I get 100 retweets
> I publish the full write-up below this
Wiktor retweeted
The U.S. government is restocking its bank account (the TGA) to pay its bills while reducing the Fed’s balance sheet via QT (quantitative tightening). If the subsequent drain of reserves is too severe, the Fed may encounter a welcome surprise in the most crucial funding market...
Wiktor retweeted
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone25 Sep 2023Europe
EuropeConnected via Europe App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
🔸10Y YIELD HIGHEST SINCE OCT 2007
Wiktor retweeted
As trading costs plunged in the late 1990s, the cheap liquidity era had arrived. A broad spectrum of trading strategies had grown profitable, causing an explosion in speculative activity. First, as usual, came the hedge funds and CTAs (commodity trading advisors)...
Wiktor retweeted
After easing financial conditions via a series of covert actions, monetary leaders can no longer pretend to tighten. The dark side of Quantitative Tightening (QT) has been unleashed, not by the Fed itself, but by the U.S. Treasury. The Stealth Liquidity Squeeze™ is here... 1/




















