Dot-com vs AI, chart vs chart.
Dot-com: +402% then β78%.
AI era: +141% to the peak, now β12%.
Here's the big difference. π
π¨ Rep. John McGuire (R-VA) just disclosed 3 $MU buys: Sep 24, Sep 25, Oct 1. Up to $15K each.
He sits on the House subcommittee for cybersecurity & IT.
Micron closed Monday at $833.59, about 23% below his buy dates.
Next earnings ~Dec 23.
Gold broke below $4,000 Friday.
Today it's up 2% on Hormuz reopening hopes.
Here's the oil-to-gold chain.
20 tech stocks are now in bear market territory
(from their highs, per @KobeissiLetter):
$APP AppLovin: -65%
$CRWV CoreWeave: -57%
$COIN Coinbase: -56%
$WDC Western Digital: -52%
$ORCL Oracle: -50%
$ARM Arm Holdings: -49%
$CRCL Circle: -44%
$SNDK Sandisk: -42%
$HOOD Robinhood: -40%
$STX Seagate: -39%
$NOW ServiceNow: -37%
$SMCI Super Micro: -35%
$INTC Intel: -35%
$ADBE Adobe: -34%
$AVGO Broadcom: -31%
$MRVL Marvell: -30%
$GOOGL Alphabet: -28%
$IBM IBM: -25%
$MU Micron: -24%
$META Meta: -22%
A βstealthβ bear market: the S&P 500 is near its record while most stocks fall.
Historic opportunity or falling knife? π
Clarification: the Nolan Creek report came out Monday, when $UAMY fell ~7% to $2.85. Todayβs ~11% bounce came alongside a broad critical-minerals rally ($USAR +11%, $CRML +8%, $REMX +4%), so itβs not fair to pin it on the report alone. The report is SEC S-K 1300 compliant, which is the official US standard for reporting mining resources.
Rare earth stocks just hit 52-week lows.
William Blair's basket of seven rare earth miners fell about 30% in a month, the VanEck $REMX ETF is down more than half from its May peak, and MP Materials $MP is about 50% below its high.
The market seems to be betting a U.S.-China deal will ease supply before Trump and Xi meet again in November and December. William Blair analyst Neal Dingmann calls that "incorrect." His top picks: MP Materials (price floors, offtake deals) and Lynas (little new funding needed).
The risk: cheaper shares make new funding more painful for smaller miners.
Berkshire Hathaway has $365 billion in cash, enough to buy 472 of the 500 S&P 500 companies (per Exec Sum).
The number is real, but it's from June 30, and the pile is shrinking.
Cash and T-bills fell from a record $397.4B in March to $365.5B in June as new CEO Greg Abel became a net buyer of stocks for the first time in over three years (+$20B in Q2).
He put $10B into Alphabet, bought homebuilder Taylor Morrison for $6.8B, and lifted buybacks to $4.53B from $234M.
Q3 results in early November will show how much is left.
$BRK.B
$BOLT jumped 63% and the VCs paid even more 𧬠Here's the deal, the drug and the catch.
Not investment advice.
Gold just broke below $4,000 for the first time since July (low ~$3,987).
Silver: ~$54, an 11-month low, ~56% below January's $121.67 record.
Drivers: oil >$110, Fed hike bets for December, and the tech selloff.
Fed decides Wednesday.
$RKLB dipped below $50 this week, ~66% off its $151 high, after its worst week ever (-23%).
Why: Neutron delayed to 2027 + an FCC challenge to the $8B Iridium deal.
Bulls: 81% of revenue isn't launches, $2.36B backlog.
Bears: still unprofitable, ~32x sales.
