Anthony Scilipoti

We got so busy with our 14th annual real estate conference that we didn't have a chance to share a company milestone: Veritas turned 26 a few weeks back. We took a little time out to celebrate our 26th anniversary (it wasn't quite the spectacle of our 25th anniversary, but we can't have a party like that every year!), and we want to thank all our clients, past and present, for recognizing the value of independent thinking, deep research and a willingness to ask the tough questions. We're fortunate to have such a talented, growing team to carry forward that tradition, and we couldn't be more thankful to our clients for supporting us in what we do.

As part of our Annual Veritas Real Estate Conference, we've been conducting a residential real estate investor survey since 2019 (thank you to many of our followers who filled it out this year). This year's survey results, which we presented at this year's conference, suggest the standoff between buyers and sellers is as entrenched as ever. Buyers are sitting on the sidelines, convinced prices have further to fall. Sellers, meanwhile, are reluctant to accept today's prices and are holding on in hopes of a recovery. Last year, we saw some encouraging signs that a few buyers were beginning to return to the market. However, that optimism has evaporated, as 92% of investors surveyed have no plans to purchase a property in the coming year, the highest proportion since we began the survey in 2019. On the selling side, little has changed, as 76% have no plans to sell. We also ask investors whether their properties are generating positive cash flow. There was some improvement over last year, although the broader picture remains troubling, with only about 40% of respondents cash-flow positive. See the results: acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aai…

Can walking 14,000 steps on a pilgrimage make you a better business leader? Can it help find ways to strengthen Canada economically? Rocco Rossi knows it can and we have to act fast. Rocco has walked the Camino de Santiago 24 times (and counting) and written a moving memoir novel that our President and CEO, Anthony Scilipoti, says will speak to everyone, especially Bay Street and business leaders. In "Finding Grace: A Camino de Santiago Story," Rocco narrates a story that weaves his vast personal and professional experience into a blueprint for leadership through understanding grace and selfless giving. In this moving Fact Finder 145, Anthony speaks with Rocco, the business leader, board member, champion fundraiser, former mayoral candidate, public servant, best-selling author and pilgrim as he explains how we can live a better life and build a better Canada. The conversation delves into Rocco's humble origins, formative influences, and professional career. He explains why he started walking the Camino, and shares the lessons he's learned about life, leadership, and business along the trail. He also has strong convictions about how to strengthen Canada. His assessment: decisive action and speed are key, noting that COVID proved governments can move quickly. "There's no waiting for Godot here. We've got to act, take responsibility and agency, and be prepared to adjust." Rocco's four lessons for any business leader: 1) break down big goals into small steps, 2) celebrate the small wins along the way, 3) minimize emotional baggage, and 4) empower your people to excel. youtu.be/fS_wzEXQ_6Q?si=HzJY… @roccorossiTO @ASclipoti

Mark Carney believes Canada needs a new pipeline. The Prime Minister recently designated the forthcoming Pacific Link pipeline as the first project of national interest under the Building Canada Act. The argument is that a new pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast will expand pipeline capacity for oil producers, diversify exports beyond the U.S. market, and strengthen Canada's economic resilience. Not everyone agrees. Anthony Scilipoti, our President and CEO, spoke to Tom Gunton, a professor at Simon Fraser University, in the latest episode of our Fact Finders Series. Tom has studied large-scale infrastructure projects for decades, and he says Canada doesn't need another pipeline. Pipelines are expensive, complex, multi-year projects. Tom argues that Canada would be better off upgrading existing infrastructure, some of which has private sector backing, than building from scratch. "If you've got enough low-cost brownfield pipeline expansion that the private sector is investing [in], that's capable of getting that oil to market, why would you build a project at taxpayers' expense that you don't need?" See the full episode on YouTube: youtu.be/wdJDtE9qx6k?si=sdyi… @ASclipoti

The Price of Denial: What is Canadian Commercial Real Estate Really Worth? - Jeffrey Berger, Managing Director, TDB Advisory - David Black, Head of Value and Risk Advisory, Canada, JLL Canada - Mario Lefebvre, Chief Economist for Canada, CoStar Group - Anthony Scilipoti, President and CEO, Veritas Group of Companies (moderator) Commercial real estate values have fallen, transactions have slowed, and refinancing has become far more difficult. Yet reported valuations and loan losses have often adjusted only gradually. Are owners and lenders prudently waiting for markets to recover, or merely delaying an inevitable reckoning? Bringing together expertise in economics, property valuation and corporate restructuring, this panel will examine what Canadian commercial real estate is really worth. Where are valuations still vulnerable? Which sectors face the greatest refinancing risk? When does financial stress become insolvency? And who ultimately absorbs the losses? The central question: Has Canadian commercial real estate found its bottom, or have we simply avoided recognizing it? Please join us for this panel and more at our 14th Annual Veritas Real Estate Conference on October 14 at the National Club and streaming. See the full agenda and ticket information on our website. veritascorp.com/events/real-…? @ASclipoti @CoStarCanada @JLL

Consumer insolvencies are up, but the TSX is near all-time highs. Power-of-sale transactions are rising, but mortgage write-offs for Big Banks remain steady at ~1 bps. Unemployment levels are elevated, but markets are pricing in rate hikes. Fixed mortgage rates are rising, real estate values are declining in the GTA and GVA, but active inventories are contracting. Geopolitical and trade tensions remain major risks to the economy, but the government's push in AI, mining, defence, and infrastructure can result in robust economic growth. These are some of the contradictions that exist today. Shalabh Garg, our Financial Services Senior Analyst, will kick off our 14th Annual Veritas Real Estate Conference by presenting Veritas's views on why these contradictions are predominant today, providing an overview of the health of Canadian households, the state of the GTA and the GVA markets, and the implications for the Big Banks. This will be followed by a conversation with Rebekah Young, Vice-President, Economic Policy, Scotiabank, to explore further on how the economy is holding up despite the lack of population growth, how many rate hikes the economy can absorb, whether there is room for the federal and provincial government to run at higher fiscal deficits, and how AI buildout, trade and geopolitical issues will impact employment levels in Canada? The key conundrum: What's driving this divergence in the performance of Main St. and the Bay St.? How long will it last, and will Main St. catch up to Bay St., or are we in for a substantial deflation in financial asset valuations? We are almost sold out for the National Club on October 14th, so please don't delay in signing up if you plan to come. Tickets are also available for streaming. Please see the website for tickets and the full agenda: veritascorp.com/events/real-…?

We are pleased to announce the agenda for our Veritas 14th Annual Real Estate Conference on October 14. Are We There Yet? Searching for a Bottom in an Unpredictable Market 9:00 - 9:15 Welcome: A Year in Review Anthony Scilipoti, President and CEO, Veritas Group of Companies 9:15 - 9:30 The Main St vs. the Bay St Conundrum Shalabh Garg, Senior Investment Analyst, Financial Services and REITs, Veritas Investment Research Rebekah Young, Vice-President, Economic Policy, Scotiabank 9:55 - 10:35 The Price of Denial: What Is Canadian Commercial Real Estate Really Worth? Jeffrey Berger, Managing Director, TDB Advisory David Black, Head of Value and Risk Advisory, Canada, JLL Canada Mario Lefebvre, Chief Economist for Canada, CoStar Group 10:50 - 11:20 From Crisis to Constraint: Canadian Housing Credit in a More Volatile World Aled ab Iorwerth, Deputy Chief Economist, Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation 11:20 - 12:00 Build, Hold or Fold? - The Fight to Finance Condos and Purpose-built Rental Housing Adrian Rocca. CEO & Founder, Fitzrovia Real Estate Nick Stillo, Principal and COO, One Urban Developments Sasha Cucuz, CEO, Greybrook Securities Inc. Partner, Greybrook Capital Lunch Inc1:00 - 2:00 Are We There Yet? Four Views from the Front Lines Natalka Falcomer, Chief Real Estate Officer, Houseful, an RBC Company (moderator) Daniel Foch, Chief Real Estate Officer, Valery.ca Ron Butler, Mortgage Broker, Butler Mortgage Inc. John Pasalis, President and Broker, Move Smartly Realty inc. Steve Saretsky, Saretsky Group 2:00 - 2:30 The City To the Rescue? - Toronto's Experiment as a Public Real Estate Developer Vic Gupta, CEO of CreateTO 2:45 - 3:25 Back to the Office. But Which Office? - A Fireside Chat on the Future of Canadian Office Real Estate Alan MacKenzie, CEO JLL Canada Jonathan Pearce, Senior Managing Director, Americas Leasing, Hines 3:25 - 4:10 Finding Bottom in Canada: A Look Back Over the Last 50 Years Ira Gluskin, Chief Investment Officer of Irager + Associates Inc. Jon Love, Executive Chairman and Founder of KingSett Capital 4:10 - 4:30 Wrap Anthony Scilipoti, President and CEO, Veritas Group of Companies Cocktails at The National Club afterwards. We are almost at capacity for the National Club. If you plan to attend, please don't wait to RSVP. veritascorp.com/events/real-… @ASclipoti @JohnPasalis @ronmortgageguy @danielfoch @SteveSaretsky

On September 16, our President and CEO, Anthony Scilipoti, and Special Situations Analyst, Ben Butler, hosted a 1-hour webinar for our clients that delved into the complex world of AI financing. We went through how AI companies have been finding the money they need to build out AI infrastructure with equity investments and other arrangements, creating a circular financing loop that may not be sustainable. In this short excerpt from the webinar, Ben follows the money one step further by examining the relationships between private-equity firms, the insurance companies they own and AI companies. In one case, he dug into the filings of a $3.5 billion AI financing agreement and found that two-thirds of the loans appeared on a related insurance company's balance sheet, meaning that policyholders, who are predominantly retirees, unknowingly were financing the purchase of GPU chips. youtu.be/jLqYPmtnVTU?si=nT7Q…

We have an update to the fireside chat we announced last week. Ira Gluskin, Chief Investment Officer of Irager + Associates Inc., has agreed to host the fireside chat with Jon Love, Executive Chairman and Founder of KingSett Capital. Jon and Ira go way back, as Ira was once a real estate analyst before he co-founded Gluskin Sheff and Associates. Subsequently, Ira has become a director of a variety of public real estate companies, including First Capital, which Jon is trying to buy as we speak. Ira has agreed to be very gentle on Jon, with perhaps one or two exceptions. The Premise for the Fireside Chat Real estate cycles rarely repeat, but they often rhyme. Why did commercial and residential real estate collapse together in the early 1990s, while this current downturn has unfolded so differently? What can previous bubbles teach us about governance, the pricing of capital and the excesses that ultimately create a crisis? Today, capital is constrained, projects are stalled, and buyers and sellers remain locked in a standoff. Yet Jon believes we may be starting to establish a bottom, with recovery taking hold in 2027 into 2028 (wonder what Ira thinks?). In a special fireside chat at our 14th Annual Veritas Real Estate Conference, Ira and Jon will look back through their careers to understand where we are today, what could still go wrong, and what needs to change in real estate, public policy and Canada itself to create the next period of growth and opportunity. Find out more about the conference and purchase tickets on our website: veritascorp.com/events/real-…

We're hiring! We're looking for someone with several years of experience in executive support, operations, project coordination, professional services or another demanding business environment. Here is what success in the job looks like: - The CEO does not have to remember everything because you do - Meetings happen with the right people, information and preparation - Commitments are followed up without repeated reminders - Important details rarely fall through the cracks - Recurring problems become processes - Projects move forward because someone is actively driving them - You anticipate what is required before being asked - The executive team trusts you with increasingly important responsibilities - You make the organization more organized simply by being part of it If that sounds like you, check out our job post for more details. linkedin.com/jobs/view/44671…

We're hiring! If you're early in your career, deeply curious about companies and markets, and want to develop your skills in fundamental analysis and forensic accounting, we'd like to hear from you. linkedin.com/jobs/view/44635…

We're extremely proud to announce that Martin Pradier, MBA, CFA, has been promoted to Senior Investment Analyst. Martin is responsible for covering the Materials sector, having two decades of equity research experience on both the buy-side and sell-side. Not only does he know a lot about rocks, but he also has a great mind for how macro events will impact commodity prices. Fun fact: He is from Argentina, so he speaks Spanish fluently, which is why he can pick up the phone and learn about local political conditions affecting miners in Latin America. His wife, Louise, is Quebecois, so he speaks French too. He also loves boats, and yes, he's taken us for rides under the beautiful Scarborough Bluffs. Congratulations Martin!