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Better Reffing Through Statistics

Joined November 2021
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The #NFL teams hurt/helped most by penalties this season This shows each team’s net gain/loss of Win Probability as a result of flags We think taking this unique approach to measuring the impact of penalties brings something new and interesting to #NFLStats. We hope you do too!
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acCOUNTable refs retweeted
1/ As we evaluate the prospect of Meadows's motion to remove his prosecution from State to Federal Court, important to remember that the governing law will be fed'l law & the appeal of the district judge's decision will go to the 11th Circuit. Not a state law matter.
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Well that wraps up an incredible post-season Thank you so much for everyone who joined us and especially those who retweeted/followed/commented! Can we get some love for the officials who joined us behind the scenes to share their insights throughout the postseason?
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Pass Interference by the #Bengals cost them an additional 9.29% Win Probability The officials doing their best to make our pregame prediction look foolish by making these highly impactful penalty calls (properly officiated ones) after a game with no in-play whistles #StatThat
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We don't currently handle offsetting penalty Win Probability impacts. But it's safe to say if you call only one of those penalties, you are getting a 20+% Win Probability impact
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A massive Defensive Holding call against the #Bengals gives the #Rams turns a 4th and Goal into a 1st and Goal The Bengals lost 20.07% Win Probability on the play #StatThat
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A Personal Foul against the #Bengals costs them 2.06% Win Probability. Not a minor mistake with a small lead over the #Rams #StatThat
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Let's put the missed Face Mask in historical perspective. The most famous missed penalty in recent playoff history was the uncalled DPI that ultimately cost the #Saints a Super Bowl berth The Saints lost 26.46% WP on that play. The #Rams lost 24.37% WP #StatThat
A no-call can be every bit as impactful as a flag that is thrown. The #Saints know this better than most: youtube.com/watch?v=xjvZHMod… When the officials failed to flag the #Rams for DPI, the Saints lost over 26.46% Win Probability and ultimately lost the game and a Super Bowl berth
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We NEED your help! Please RETWEET and @ MENTION your favorite accounts This is nearly a 25% Win Probability swing in the most important #NFL game on a missed call that *could* have been properly officiated with a more robust review system put in place Change is 100% needed
An extremely costly missed Face Mask by the #Bengals on their TD. The #Rams lost 24.37% Win Probability on the officiating mistake (as confirmed by our rules experts) That is largest impact from a missed call we've seen in the playoffs #StatThat
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Fewer than 99.7% of all plays run in the #NFL this year had a Win Probability impact of more than 24% The #Rams went from a 74.82% chance of winning the game to a 50.45% chance as a result of the no-call There needs to be changes to get these critical calls right #StatThat
An extremely costly missed Face Mask by the #Bengals on their TD. The #Rams lost 24.37% Win Probability on the officiating mistake (as confirmed by our rules experts) That is largest impact from a missed call we've seen in the playoffs #StatThat
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An extremely costly missed Face Mask by the #Bengals on their TD. The #Rams lost 24.37% Win Probability on the officiating mistake (as confirmed by our rules experts) That is largest impact from a missed call we've seen in the playoffs #StatThat
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The #SuperBowl is living up to officiating expectations. It's been a low penalty impact game with the refs calling only what they're forced to (obvious presnap fouls and a non-player joining a celebration) The #Bengals enjoy a narrow 1.12% WP advantage from flags over the #Rams
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A properly-officiated Taunting penalty costs the #Bengals 10 yards but only 1.51% Win Probability as it affects only field position after the interception of the #Rams #StatThat
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Another presnap penalty: a False Start on the #Rams costs them 2.19% Win Probability The field position and proximity to half-time are the reason we see a more significant WP impact here #StatThat
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We hear you all and will be addressing the officiating controversy in the #PuppyBowl at half-time
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As expected, the first penalty we see is a presnap penalty. A Delay of Game by the #Rams costs them only 0.44% Win Probability as the favorites already up on the #Bengals #StatThat
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We hope you'll all be joining us for our live tweeting of the #Bengals #Rams #SuperBowl! We'll be providing our Impact of Penalty stats and will again be joined behind the scenes by rules experts who will help us all better understand the nuances of officiating in the #NFL
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Also consider: - The #Rams had the least penalty impact from flags thrown against them in the regular season - The #Bengals had the least penalty impact from pre-snap flags thrown against them in the regular season - Officials throw fewer & less impactful flags in the playoffs
What are we expecting as far as officiating at the #SuperBowl? There's only one experienced referee in the league whose crews throw less impactful flags than tonight's Referee Ronald Torbert We're expecting a low penalty impact game tonight
What are we expecting as far as officiating at the #SuperBowl? There's only one experienced referee in the league whose crews throw less impactful flags than tonight's Referee Ronald Torbert We're expecting a low penalty impact game tonight
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HELP US make this the first playoffs in #NFL history where every call/no-call is tracked, evaluated, and measured RETWEET this to get more fans sharing Super Bowl no-calls Ideally use our anonymous Google Form forms.gle/hAJRtBVC5phdg3Xw6 Tweet no-call details here if not…
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Please show some love for the officials who joined us behind the scenes tonight! Thank you all again so much for joining us in our coverage today :)
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