I find algorithms and make them give me money. #TheStrat
Wisconsin, USA
Joined May 2019
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Backtest price action reversals, continuity, or buying the bottom of ranges and the results will tell you it doesn’t work.
Your backtest isn’t the problem. How you are thinking is.
As traders we must gather evidence, not historical outcomes.
Historical probability has no bearing on future price. The statistically likely outcome is not always the probable one.
“Oil can’t go to −$10. It’s never done that.”
Oil below the Y Q M W opens ❓ Every group we track is selling futures at the bid.
If that continues, it goes well past −$10 🤣 It settled at −$37.63.
If everyone is selling it's going down.
If everyone keeps selling it'll keep going down.
That is what TheStrat lets you actually identify. Not historical probability, realtime evidence of algorithms & participation.
$META The '3' shooter week actionable signal caused prices to drop from the top of the monthly/weekly broadening formation
Next month meta is closer to a 2u-1-2d reversal with magnitude to take out the other side of the historical '3' on the monthly timeframe.
So... Sub $500 would be the price you want to see.
Oversold can get oversolder. The weekly short signal is still good and no where near a reversal.
In order to be a buy we'd like to see a 1-2d month but green to cause a 1-3u however that is 100% speculation.
$META now down 9 of the last 10 days for almost -20%. RSI nearing those March lows.
Jeez….
We buying this here fam right? RIGHT?
We solved technical analysis.
And you literally can't disagree with what I am about to share.
At 10:30 we had a simultaneous reversal in all technology stocks and 4/4 indexes. FACT
3/4 indexes broke within 3minutes FACT
2/3 tech broke in the same moment. FACT
This picked up on algorithmic buying at the OFFER.
FACT
The SPY calls are .63 -> 2.54
The QQQ calls are .47 -> 2.15
The algorithms are still buying at the offer. FACT
Price has not reversed yet FACT
All known groups in SPY/IWM are buyers FACT
We proved it all in this video.
Learn. Then manage your risk.
xitter.gq/AlexsOptions/status/21…
#2 - Learn about the evidence you can actually gather
If you went to a crime scene you'd find DNA, Fingerprints, maybe some foot prints and so on.
In trading you will find many things. The most powerful of those things is this.
The simultaneous break. Where you have a large group of assets break in the same direction at the same moment.
When this happens you pick up on institutional trading, retail traders cannot aggressively sell/buy 40+ stocks at the same time for 4 weeks straight
If you can pick up on the guys who move the market, you can ride the wave they make.
There's other types of evidence like Actionable Signals, Timeframe Continuity & Broadening Formations.
I just released a video showing exactly how we do this
youtu.be/i4UzNsv-7Dc
When AI finally got good enough I backtested until I couldn't stand it anymore.
And in that, I realized that wasn't the answer.
The answer was what you can actually know to be true
👇
#3 - A high winrate isn't the goal.
If someone jumps out of an airplane without a parachute.
You already know the outcome. They're going to go splat.
But then, they find a 50 foot stack of hay and survive.
Does that mean the evidence you had was incorrect or does that mean there was an unknown piece of evidence ❓
Obviously, the latter. The question is how does that apply to win rate.
Win rate is a function of STOP SIZE. Not a function of evidence.
Price is ALWAYS more likely to move $0.01 than $100
ALWAYS
So a tight stop is a low winrate
A wide stop is a high winrate
Traders, Get rid of the noise.
If you get on social media it is always:
* Whats the news whats the news!
* New [definitely not new] thing
* [Thing] changed my trading [it probably didn't]
* Trading makes you money [it doesn't]
All of that is noise.
What makes you money is gathering evidence, then managing risk around that evidence.
Then holding your winners exiting your losers fast.
If you want to learn more about how we read price without any subjective opinion.
Learn at thestrat.ai
At thestrat.ai we teach how price works in real time.
Here's our order vacuum teaching at LOD $XLE