bettor of nfl futures | PM focused | leans niners in the fall
Joined August 2023
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For the record, if Osa was living up to the 3rd round pick the Niners traded for him, we wouldn’t be pursuing D Buckner. My guess is Buckner and Halton are the starting DTs for the NFC Championship game.
The Niners interior DL renovation in past 2 years:
Drafted:
- Alfred Collins (2nd)
- CJ West (4th)
- Grace Halton (4th)
- Mykel Williams (1st)... can play inside.
Traded for:
- Osa (3rd)
- Buckner (4th)
- Keon White (6th / 7th swap)
Nasty work...
After the 2020 trade for Jamal Adams, I thought John Schneider was officially washed... since then he's been incredibly impressive on the trade market. This was the #1 player available at the deadline. Nelson is that good and multiple prime years left.
BREAKING: The #Colts are trading 8× Pro Bowl G Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks, per @AdamSchefter.
Nelson, one of the best guards in football, joins a 4-3 #Seahawks team in a major trade.
Mr Mays you make me laugh xitter.cf/sfdata9ers/status/2113…
A third through the season, here's where I think things land:
NFC
1. Niners
2. Bears
3. Falcons
4. Cowboys
5. Vikings
6. Seahawks
7. Packers
wc: chi>gb, sea>atl, min>dal
dr: sf> sea, chi>min
nfcc: sf>chi
AFC
1. BUF
2. KC
3. BAL
4. JAX
5. NE
6. HOU
7. DEN
wc: kc>den, bal>hou, jax>ne
dr: buf>jax, bal>kv
afcc: buf>bal
SB: SF>BUF
Ahead of tonight's game...
Top 25 QBs in league, not including 2024 draft class:
1. Josh Allen
--
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Lamar Jackson
4. Joe Burrow
--
5. Brock Purdy
6. Dak Prescott
7. Jared Goff
8. Matthew Stafford
9. Jordan Love
--
10. Justin Herbert
11. CJ Stroud
12. Trevor Lawrence
13. Bryce Young
--
14. Jalen Hurts
15. Tyler Shough
16. Baker Mayfield
17. Sam Darnold
--
18. Kyler Murray
19. Jacoby Brisset
20. Geno Smith
21. Aaron Rodgers
22. Mac Jones
23. Kirk Cousins
24. Daniel Jones
25. Malik Willis
Steve Wilks likely cost the Niners a SB. At this point, one of worst defensive coaches... that keeps getting jobs. The Adam Gase of DCs
The #Commanders have hired Steve Wilks to work with the defensive coaches under Dan Quinn and Daronte Jones, per me and @RapSheet. The decision to hire Wilks was made last month. He started last week.
Wilks will help with game planning. He won't be with the team on game days.
Fitzpatrick is right... Peyton called a really good game imo... Nix is actively holding this team back. He had multiple chances to run for a first down and dove short.
Ryan Fitzpatrick just went on a rant ripping #Broncos QB Bo Nix:
“Bo Nix is not playing competitively. It’s almost disrespectful to the quarterback position how he’s playing football.”
(🎥 @NFLonPrime)
Rarely tweet about mainstream nfl discussion, but this is a great barometer for who knows ball:
Trent Williams + Fred Warner could retire after this season and they are HOFers.
George Kittle + Mike Evans are very likely HOFers
CMC is not guaranteed in, but I'd have him likely to make it after another couple good seasons.
Bosa needs another DPOY and couple All Pro seasons. Possible but not surefire.
No NFL team has more surefire future Hall of Famers than the San Francisco 49ers.
Cc: @tyschmit
🎧 open.spotify.com/episode/03z…
Update thru 5 games of relatively even personell:
+.074/ play (~50th percentile)
+2.76 CPOE (~60th percentile)
QBR: 64.9 (QB avg is 50-55)
PFF: 69.9 (QB avg is 60)
This Narrative is massively overblown. The personnel mismatch in the two Jan 2025 games (within 2 weeks of each other) was tremendous.
After removing the 2 games from this Jan, in 4 games against Macdonald's defense Purdy has averaged:
--> +.12 EPA/play
--> +2.1 CPOE
--> QBR: 65.6 (QB avg is 50-55)
--> PFF: 68.6 (QB avg is 60)
This includes Purdy's worse game of his career.
Best Deep Ball in the game.
Jordan Love's 2nd TD to Christian Watson traveled 66.9 yards in the air.
It's the 3rd-longest completed throw in terms of air yards in the NFL since 2016, per @NextGenStats.
Other than bad-luck injuries, the biggest threat to this Niners team is the Special Teams.
- Eddy P is off to a slowww start
- Deebo has a fumble problem
- Punt return team is very weak... old habits die hard
- Waitman in lone bright spot
Purdy and co. have 10 big tests this regular season:
1. Rams, grade: A
2. @ SEA, grade: B
3. WAS (MNF)
4. @ DAL
5. MIN (SNF)
6. SEA
7. LAR
8. @ LAC (TNF)
9. @ KC
10. PHI (SNF)
Purdy's MVP case gets decided in these 10 games... prob can't afford a bad night and a loss to PHI in January.
That game had about 4 massive coinflip calls, first three went seatte's way until that last play.. the most notable calls were grounding that forced 1st & forever and the deebo fumble.
