#Gold may have just found its sweet spot, right as it looks for a reason to hold $4,000.
The #Fed held rates, yet the 2-year yield fell, the 10-year rose, and the dollar sold off.
The front end is pricing an unserious Fed, while the long end is still demanding compensation for inflation risk.
That's a potentially powerful combination for gold.
If these moves find follow-through over the next few sessions, look out.
$GLD $GC_F #Gold
THE OPENING GAMBIT | WEEKEND WATCH — OCT. 11
• Riyadh airport hit twice in two days. Saturday’s Houthi strike killed at least 12 and wounded 309. Sunday’s projectile remains unidentified. Saudi jets backing a counteroffensive in Yemen. $USO $BNO $XLE $FANG $OXY
• Trump announces an immediate Russia–Ukraine “energy ceasefire.” Moscow has not confirmed. Follows Friday’s announced deal for roughly 13.5M barrels of Russian diesel to enter global markets initially. $USO $MPC $VLO $PSX
• India launches emergency rupee defense as currency nears 97 per dollar. RBI opens a dollar window for state oil companies and tightens FX restrictions—its strongest intervention since 2013. $INDA $EPI $IBN $HDB
• IEA urges governments to accelerate pledged diesel releases and assess additional supply ahead of its Oct. 15 board meeting. Hormuz disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure compound the shortage. $MPC $VLO $PSX $DINO
• French debt stress deepens. Bundesbank warns investors are growing nervous about government borrowing. NatWest exits U.S. and European sovereign debt markets. Fiscal strains take focus ahead of IMF/World Bank meetings. $EWQ $EUFN $DB $NWG
Sources: Bloomberg / WSJ.
Underlying trend within #smallcaps is to buy profitability
Below is @Bloomberg's EPS revisions factor, which measures how excited analysts are getting about earnings for the S&P 600 Small Cap Index.
$IWM @ 200-day moving average
THE OPENING GAMBIT | OCT. 8
• Brent +5% to $105+ on reports of potential U.S. strikes on Iran. 10Y Treasury yield hits 5.32%. $USO $XLE $XOM $CVX
• European banks extend losses after Wednesday’s 3.3% drop. SocGen down 26% from August peak; Deutsche Bank down 18% from its high. $DB $EUFN
• Fed’s Waller expects additional hikes, says consecutive meetings aren’t necessary. $SPY $QQQ $TLT
• ECB minutes show growth concerns accompanied its second hike in response to the energy shock. $FEZ $VGK
• PBOC rules out competitive yuan devaluation ahead of EU trade talks. $FXI $KWEB $BABA
• Germany lifts 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 0.5%, citing exports and government spending. $EWG
• PepsiCo cuts core constant-currency EPS growth guidance to 1%–2% from the low end of 4%–6%. Higher costs, slower consumer recovery. $PEP
• OpenAI reportedly discussing a $30B raise at a $1.4T valuation. $MSFT
$39B 10Y auction:
• Rate: 5.30% (highest since 2000)
• Bid-to-cover: 2.77x (avg 2.54x)
• Foreign/indirect: 80% (avg 74%)
• Dealers: 2.5% (avg 8.8%)
• Cleared 1.7bp below expected
Translation: buyers outnumbered bonds nearly 3 to 1.
#tlt #interestrates $spy
In 2008, the $QQQ topped out in the summer, correcting ~14%.
It then rallied ~12%, with haste as if a generational buying opportunity would pass everyone by in August...
It then fell almost 50% shortly thereafter.
