Charlie Andrys | 21st Financial

Want to hear something really scary? $10 of Halloween candy in 2020 costs $14.72 today. The government tracks candy prices every month, and from September 2020 to September 2026 they rose 47%. Prices overall rose 29% over the same stretch. Over the last year candy rose 7.7%, about double the 3.7% rise in prices overall. That 47% already counts shrinkflation. When a bag gets smaller and the price stays the same, the government records it as a price increase. Higher cocoa prices explain some of candy's extra jump. They don't explain why prices overall rose 29%. I think that's what happens when the supply of dollars grows faster than the stuff it buys. A $10 bill saved since 2020 now buys about two-thirds of the candy it used to. Happy Halloween.

If your advisor holds even one piece of the key to your Bitcoin, the SEC's new proposal says your advisor is holding your Bitcoin. The SEC proposed the rules on October 1st. They cover how SEC-registered advisers could hold client crypto. Under the proposal, an adviser could hold the keys itself only if no qualified custodian will take the asset. Cost isn't a good enough reason. When an adviser does hold them, at least two people at the firm would have to sign off on every transfer, and one of them has to be in management. Each client's coins would sit at their own addresses, never pooled with anyone else's. It's a proposal, not a rule yet. Public comments are due December 7th. Try asking your advisor where the keys to your Bitcoin are right now.

$MSTR wants to pay dividends on its preferred stock every single day instead of monthly or quarterly. Shareholders vote one week from today. The vote is October 28th. Only people who owned Strategy's regular shares on September 25th get a vote. If it passes and takes effect by November 1st, $STRC would start paying daily in November. Even after a yes vote, the board can still call it off before it starts. It's still just a proposal. A dividend rate isn't the same as what you earn, the price moves, and Strategy can change the rate. Accounts I manage hold positions in Strategy securities.

Social Security checks go up 3.6% in January. Prices went up 3.7% over the past year. That's about $75 a month more for the average retiree, according to the Social Security Administration. Over the 12 months through September, everyday prices rose 3.7%, and gas alone jumped 34.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I think a raise that trails prices isn't a raise. It just slows down how fast you fall behind.

No matter who wins in two weeks, I don't think either party pays this debt down. History says savers do. After World War II, America's debt shrank fast compared to the size of the economy. An IMF study published in July found that nearly 40% of that drop came from savers. Banks were pushed to hold government bonds that paid less than the going rate, and that works like a hidden tax on everyone with savings. The study covers 17 countries going back to 1920, and it finds this hidden tax has been growing again since the 2008 financial crisis. I think the same playbook is running now. If your savings earn less than inflation, you're helping pay the bill whether you voted for it or not.

No matter who wins in two weeks, Washington already spends more on interest on the debt than on the Pentagon's military activities. The federal government spent $1.143T on interest on the debt in fiscal 2026 and $916B on the military, by CBO's preliminary count. Interest rose 11% in one year. I don't think either party can vote that number down.