Good life with good health, family, and friends. Retired. 50 years old. Ex-IT Engineer. Gym dweller. Not a financial advisor. Index investor.
Joined June 2022
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Andy retweeted
The Brewers are being celebrated like they invented baseball.
They are doing things that have become unusual.
They have an old school tough manager who players love playing for.
They focus on basic easy to understand basic fundamentals.
They have a hitting coach that was an overachieving player for skill that played in the big leagues.
They hit the ball the other way.
They value putting the ball in play.
They adjust their approach based on situation and count.
They are not addicted to exit velocity and launch angle bullshit.
They bunt and steal bases.
They do not have selfish superstars that need to be treated like celebrities.
The Brewers simply play the game how it was meant to be played.
Andy retweeted
There has never been a shortage of reasons to be pessimistic.
Meanwhile, the value of stocks and mutual funds owned by U.S. households has more than tripled over the last decade.
Optimism pays and ownership builds wealth.
Be an owner.
Andy retweeted
Living in a $500k home with $2m invested: happiness.
Living in a $2m home with $500k invested: misery.
Andy retweeted
~88% of people have a net-worth under $450,000.
We can all agree a $1 million net worth is still pretty rare.
...Don’t let the internet fool you.
Andy retweeted
The S&P 500 is flat for October, but the average stock is soaring.
S&P 500 equal-weight is up more than 4% MTD.
Andy retweeted
A flat stomach is a better health goal than big arms, and the data back it up. In a study of nearly 360,000 Europeans, the men with the largest waists had about twice the risk of death and the women about 1.8 times, even after accounting for BMI. Belly fat matters because the fat cells around the organs are often overfilled and insulin resistant, and they release their fat directly toward the liver. The way to shrink them is to bring insulin down, which means cutting refined carbs, eating protein and lifting.
Andy retweeted
The average net worth of U.S. households is $1.2M. The median is $216k.
But when you remove home equity, the median is just $69k.
My latest on how net worth varies by age, with and without home equity:
ofdollarsanddata.com/average…
Andy retweeted
Exercising more to burn off what a person eats doesn't work the way most people think.
As people get more active, their total daily calorie burn rises at first and then levels off. The body appears to adapt by spending less energy elsewhere, so the extra workouts don't add up the way the treadmill display suggests.
Exercise is worth doing for muscle and fitness. For fat loss, diet comes first.
Andy retweeted
In the corporate world you can take anyone off the street with average intelligence and place them in a role within that company and they’d be successful.
It’s no secret, which is why being likable is more important than education.
Andy retweeted
I used to think cholesterol was simple. High is bad. Low is good. Take a pill. Problem solved.
Then I read the Korean study. 14.9 million people. Nine years of follow up. No one on statins.
And the result was a U-shape.
Very low LDL. More cardiovascular death. Very high LDL. More cardiovascular death. The safest zone sat right in the middle.
How can both extremes kill you if the number itself is the problem?
Because the number was never the problem.
Low LDL weakens your blood vessel walls. Cholesterol builds every cell membrane in your body. It makes your hormones. Drive it to the floor and the body cannot maintain itself. The vessels get fragile. They rupture.
High LDL in someone with insulin
resistance, chronic inflammation, and a damaged arterial wall is dangerous. Not because LDL attacked the wall. Because it got trapped inside a wall that was already broken.
But here is what the system never tells you.
A lean, active person eating real food can have LDL of 300 and be one of the healthiest people in the room. High HDL. Low triglycerides. No inflammation. Clean insulin. The LDL is high because their body is running on fat and transporting energy efficiently. Not disease. Metabolism.
Same number. Completely different biology.
Two people sitting in the same doctor's office. Same LDL on the lab report. One needs intervention. One does not. But both get handed the same prescription.
Because the system was built to treat the number. Not understand the environment the number lives in.
Stop chasing numbers. Start understanding your body.
A Giant Korean Study of 15 Million People Just Blew a Hole in the “Lower LDL Is Always Better” Story
Imagine tracking almost 15 million adults for nearly nine years and counting every death from heart disease and stroke. That’s exactly what Korean researchers did with 14.9 million people who weren’t even taking cholesterol drugs. What they found doesn’t match the simple message that “the lower your LDL, the safer you are.” Instead, the risk formed a U-shape. People with very low LDL died more often from cardiovascular causes, people with very high LDL also died more often, and the sweet spot sat right in the middle.
For overall cardiovascular death the lowest risk landed between about 90 and 149 mg/dL. Below that range or well above it, deaths went up. The pattern changed depending on the exact problem. For heart attacks and blocked arteries the best zone was lower (around 70–114 mg/dL). For some types of brain bleeds the risk kept falling only when LDL stayed higher. In plain terms, driving LDL as low as possible protected against one kind of death while raising the risk of others.
When the scientists looked only at the higher range (100 to 300 mg/dL) they still saw a clear rise in heart-attack deaths as LDL climbed. Each jump of about 40 mg/dL raised the chance of dying from ischemic heart disease by roughly 26 percent. But that rise was weaker in women and in older adults than in younger men. Even people in their late 70s and early 80s still showed some extra risk from higher LDL for heart attacks and ischemic strokes, yet the overall picture never became “lower is always safer.”
The study is huge, it followed real people instead of just guessing from lab tests, and it only looked at folks who were not already on statins. That makes the U-shape harder to wave away. Doctors still treat high LDL when people already have heart disease or several risk factors, because the top end of the curve is real. But the data also show that pushing every healthy adult toward rock-bottom LDL numbers is not free. Too low carried its own price in this massive population.
The takeaway is simple and uncomfortable: LDL cholesterol is not a one-way street. In nearly 15 million Koreans the safest zone for dying of cardiovascular disease was not the lowest number on the lab report. Both extremes cost lives. That single finding from one of the largest studies ever done keeps forcing the same awkward question—how low is actually low enough, and for whom?
Andy retweeted
I was reminded of this quote the other day. I like it so much, it is in The Simple Path to Wealth.
“Money frees you from doing things you dislike. Since I dislike doing nearly everything, money is handy.”
— Groucho Marx
I can relate. 😃
Andy retweeted
5 Steps to Take Right Now
I have no idea when the bull market that began in March 2013 will end. Market volatility is rising; gains are narrowing; bonds are selling off; domestic politics are bad, and geopolitics are worse.
Secular bull runs typically last 10 to 20 years; 1982 to 2000 was the prior major bull run. But two significant wild cards complicate matters: First, the massive fiscal stimulus during the pandemic – the single largest fiscal spend as a percentage of GDP since World War Two – might have reset the clock. Second, the overall impact of artificial intelligence. Not just the massive capital expenditure (CapEx) dominating so much of the economy, but the technology’s potential to make companies more productive, more efficient, and more profitable.
Estimating how much these two factors might extend the bull market’s run is a guessing game, but I am unwilling to dismiss them out of hand. Are we in the 6th, 8th, or 9th inning? I don’t know, but I suspect the beginning of this bull is further away than the end.
What’s an investor to do?
At some point in the future (2027? ‘31?), I will discuss what changes might be prudent to make in your overall risk exposure. But I am not quite ready for that market call. All-time highs, ongoing trend, and profit growth favor further gains. Significantly reducing equity allocation – e.g., moving from 80/20 to 50/50 – feels premature. For all I know, the top is already in, but given the positive factors and the probability of divided government next year, the odds favor still more gains.
Still, there are things you can do.1 Consider these five steps any investor can take to improve their financial situation and modestly lower expected returns in exchange for meaningfully lower drawdown risk.
Let’s jump in:
1. Rebalance Your Portfolio: Since the market lows in 2009,2 stocks have trounced bonds. This is especially true for the years 2023-2026, which have all seen double-digit gains in equities and mediocre bond performance, bookended by 2022’s 13% crash and this year’s 2.5% selloff.
Regardless of your starting allocation, the odds are that you have become overweight equities and underweight fixed income. A portfolio that began as 70/30 stocks and bonds is 80/20 today. At the same time, since 2022, the bond aggregate has gone nowhere, with 2026 negative YTD. Stocks gained about 50% over the same period, despite the 2022 bear market. In three years, a 70/30 portfolio drifted to about 79/21; since 2020, it’s 84/16.
The simplest thing to do is to rebalance out of equities and into fixed income back to your original weighting. This, however, does require some tax awareness. Rebalance qualified tax-deferred accounts like IRAs and 401(k)s first; direct new contributions and dividends to the underweight side. In taxable accounts, be aware of the potential tax bill you may be creating; pair sales with harvested losses.
You chose that initial allocation for a reason — a combination of risk tolerance, investment horizon, and the most direct path to meeting your goals. It’s been a long time since investment-grade bonds paid you while also providing ballast against equity volatility.
Yields were above 5% in 2001, 2007, and 2023 (~4.99%) for a hot minute. I have no idea how long yields will stay above 5% this time, but if you don’t take advantage of this opportunity today, I suspect you may regret it later.
2. Eliminate Concentration & Redundancy: Consider the top holdings of active mutual funds; they very often are the exact same dozen or two names. Beyond the closet indexers, active managers chase whatever is hot. What often looks like a diversified portfolio of multiple mutual funds and ETFs has lots of overlap and redundancy.
The easy solution is to pick your favorite – my preference is usually the least expensive funds – and roll the others into it. The idea is to maintain your diversification while reducing the complexity and number of your funds.
The same factors that caused equity overweighting in portfolios have also increased concentration. The run-up in Mag 7 names, the semiconductor boom, and even the spike in energy companies may have created concentration risk in your holdings. That’s before we get to employer stock plans or a lucky purchase of a mega-cap tech name a decade or longer ago that now dominates your portfolio.
There are many ways to reduce this concentration.3
3. Take Out the Trash: Everybody accumulates junk: it piles up in our basements and garages and spare closets. The things we no longer use but aren’t quite ready to dispose of.
It’s as true for hoarders as it is for investors.
Now is a good time to work your way through your portfolio and eliminate the detritus that serves no purpose and shouldn’t be there anyway. This includes the sure thing your brother-in-law recommended, your broker’s hot tip (which didn’t work out), the yield play that was guaranteed to safely produce 14% (it didn’t), random NFTs and shitcoins, ETFs that haven’t performed as expected, etc. Even if you rotate the proceeds into your money market, it’s a better use of capital than it is now.
In the back half of a secular bull market, it is always useful to clear out the crap, the stuff that will perform poorly in any drawdown and get utterly murdered in the next market crash.
I say this every few years, and it has never been bad advice.
4. Check Your Home Country Bias: Home country bias – the overweighting of the stocks of the nation you live in – is a global phenomenon. This has been understood since Ken French and James Poterba first explained it in 1991.4
The U.S. has done very well relative to the rest of the world since 2009; we are in the 4th year of double-digit S&P 500 gains (two of which were ~25%). This makes it likely your U.S. exposure is wildly overweight. The chart nearby5 reveals exactly how concentrated US investors are in U.S. equities.
The U.S. has 4% of the world’s population, 26% of its GDP, and half its stock market capitalization. Yet U.S. investors keep 78% of their equity exposure at home, about 29 points above the US share of global market cap. Foreign investors are already heavily overweight the U.S. too. Norway, Canada, and Denmark each hold more than 40% of their equities in American stocks.
That bet worked for 15 years through 2024; 2025, when international stocks returned 31.2% versus 17.9% for the S&P, reminded us it doesn’t always.
5. Review Your Financial Plan: This seems like a throwaway item, but I assure you it’s not. Any individual with market exposure has seen significant increases in wealth simply from market gains. Then there are regular life changes: Are there more kids or grandkids in the picture? Has your income or capital gains changed materially? Have you delayed or accelerated when you want to retire? Debt, death, and divorce are further reasons to review your plan.
Your plan not only shows whether you’re on track to meet your goals but also helps you get there with less risk and volatility — but only if it’s updated regularly.
Bonus: Here is a 6th suggestion: Update Your Beneficiaries and Estate Documents. The 2025 estate tax change raised the federal exemption to $15 million per person ($30M per married couple) in 2026. Add in the gains since 2009, especially since 2023, and it’s likely a lot about your finances has changed.6
Do you have the appropriate beneficiaries on your accounts? Has your named executor aged out of the role? (Think next gen instead). Do you want to make changes to your percentages, add grandkids or charities to the estate?
Beneficiary designations override your will; ex-spouses, deceased parents, and kids who were not yet born when you last updated your papers run the risk of creating an expensive mess.
~~~
You don’t have to make major changes to your assets. These are modest trims along the periphery that align your portfolio with your plan. None of these increase the risk or volatility in your portfolio, and they are likely to increase your chances of achieving your long-term goals.
Take advantage of the opportunities the current market environment has created to thoughtfully make overdue updates and adjustments…
If you need help with your financial plan, investment portfolio, taxes, or estate plans, please reach out to us here.
Previously:
The Evolution of Alpha (April 3, 2026)
What Is Driving Rates Higher and Bonds Lower? (October 6, 2026)
Cyclical Bear or Secular Bull Market? (March 20, 2015)
Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022)
The Aberrational Century (September 29, 2026)
__________
1. These are great behavioral hacks that will satisfy your bias towards action, without too much drama for your portfolio…
2. 2009 was the cyclical low; 2013 was when the S&P cleared its 2000/2007 highs, marking the start of a new bull market.
3. We like Canvas Direct Indexing for portfolio tilts and tax loss harvesting; for a single concentrated stock, consider a Section 721 exchange fund; if the position sits inside an already-diversified taxable account, a Section 351 ETF conversion may work. Other options include gifting appreciated shares to a donor-advised fund or selling down over several tax years.
4. Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets by Kenneth R. French and James M. Poterba; The American Economic Review, Vol. 81, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred and Third Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1991), pp. 222-226 Published by: American Economic Association
jstor.org/stable/2006858
5. Visual Capitalist; 2025 data from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
6. Check that your will, powers of attorney, and healthcare proxy are current as well. Make sure the people you name are able, willing, and, if at all possible, local.
Andy retweeted
73% of the companies in the S&P 500 in 1996 are no longer in the index.
That's capitalism in action.
Creative destruction. Constant disruption. No company stays on top forever.
Andy retweeted
I keep seeing Tik Tok reels where the adviser (I think that’s what they call themselves) recommends buying five or six similar index tracking ETFs.
Don’t do that.
All you need for equity is broad global exposure: for example, 65% VTI and 35% VXUS, or 100% VT in tax advantaged accounts. Nothing more is needed.
If you add growth or value (high dividend), you’re now speculating of one style or another, and if you add both growth and value, you cancel both bets.
Andy retweeted
This commercial proves just how much better Halloween was 40 years ago. We didn't need much to get excited back then. Just a little imagination and the feeling of Halloween in the air.
Andy retweeted
When I was in college I worked out at this small dingy gym. I’d always go at 3, after class but before work. You go at the same time you start to meet people. One of the guys I became buddies with was a student too but wasn’t there consistently. When he was we’d lift together; we’d always hit legs.
You get to know the guys at the gym. Friends. But it never really moves past the gym. You lift together maybe grab a bite to eat after and go about our days. I got to know this guy pretty well and found out he lived near by and walked. On days it rained I’d pick him up and we’d get a lift in; then it turned into just picking him up on the way.
When he got stable ride he became consistent and we always lifted together. He told me about his life. Genius prodigy. Eccentric. An artist and mathematician. Smartest guy I knew. He confided in me the abuse he face as a child. But we mainly talked about lifting and why Starting Strength sucked. We never talked outside the gym or the car rides there and back. I’d buy him lunch sometimes and we mainly just bullshitted about working out.
One Friday morning my gym buddy sends me a text telling me he’s going camping and won’t be around for a while. Tells me not to worry about him and he won’t be working out. No worries I said and didn’t think twice.
I had this weekend side gig of working on cars. Usually just in the street. Make a few extra bucks for beer money to blow that night.
That Saturday afternoon I’m under a car and feel my phone blow up. Incessant buzzing while I’m trying to mount a transaxle back in a piece of shit Toyota using a tiny motorcycle jack. Finally I relent and check my phone. It was an unknown number. Called 18 times. One voice message. The message was from his mom. She told me he had tried to commit suicide. Had no idea who I was but he only wanted to see me.
Me? I was just his gym bro. I to this day have no idea how she got my number. But I rushed to the emergency room and found his mom completely inconsolable. She had no idea who I was but told me that he needed to see me. And that i was the only person he’d talk to. He had swallowed a bottle of pills and was just coming out of a medically induced coma.
I walked in to the room and my buddy’s awake. He immediately starts sobbing. I grabbed his hand and he looks at me and told me he was sorry for letting me down. Over and over. I broke down and just held his hand and told him he was only going to let me down if he actually died. Through his tears he laughed. Called me a fucking dick. I laughed and just held on to his hand.
I’m glad he lived that day. More glad than anything. Suicide is a motherfucker. I’m still haunted by his Friday morning text. I had no idea he was sick. I’m so glad he’s alive. Thriving now. I learned many valuable lessons. Mainly to cherish and nurture all the relationships in my life. To be there. To help people. I didn’t really know at the time the impact had on my friend just picking him up and lifting together. I still don’t. But I do know now that all those little moments we share with people matter in ways we may never learn about.
I’m not sure why I felt compelled to share this story tonight. If you’re not well reach out. Many many people would miss you. Even if your gym buddy.
Andy retweeted
In a nursing home filled with people in their 90s—many too frail to walk without help or stand up from a chair on their own—researchers decided to put them on a weight-training program.
Not light calisthenics. Not gentle stretching. High-intensity progressive resistance training, three times a week, with loads that eventually reached about 80% of each person’s maximum. The results, published in JAMA in 1990 by Maria Fiatarone and colleagues, upended long-held assumptions about aging and muscle.
Ten frail, institutionalized volunteers (average age 90, some as old as 96) trained their quadriceps for just eight weeks. Their strength exploded—an average gain of 174%, with some individuals more than tripling their starting numbers. Mid-thigh muscle cross-sectional area increased by roughly 9%. More importantly, function improved: tandem gait speed rose nearly 50%. Several participants who had needed canes or arm support to rise from a chair no longer did. Attendance was extraordinarily high; these were not people who were easily motivated by abstract health advice, yet they showed up and pushed themselves.
The study demonstrated something radical for its time: the muscles of people in their tenth decade still possess remarkable plasticity. They respond to progressive overload with substantial gains in strength, size, and real-world mobility—changes that meaningfully restored independence and reduced the burden of frailty. The relative magnitude of adaptation was comparable to what much younger adults experience under similar training.
In short, the experiment proved that chronological age, even extreme age accompanied by chronic disease and institutionalization, does not erase the body’s capacity to grow stronger. Strength training could reverse a large portion of the functional decline once considered inevitable.
Andy retweeted
I want you to see what America is really taking.
This is not a random sample. This is the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. The most comprehensive prescription dataset in the United States. Published by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.
256 million antidepressant prescriptions filled in a single year. 206 million for statins. 83 million for metformin. 71 million for GLP-1s. 69 million for opioid painkillers.
About 1 in 12 of every prescription filled in America is an antidepressant.
We are the most medicated country on Earth. And it is not close.
