Anne Sophie Andersen

What might explain the Finnish–Norwegian diplomatic fiasco now unfolding before our eyes? I would not be surprised if the story turned out to be something like this: Norway’s foreign policy establishment desperately needs a success right now. Why? Because ever since the Oslo Accords of 1993 and 1995, it has been firmly convinced that there is a distinctively Norwegian model. The model rests on the belief that small countries without great power ambitions, such as Norway, should pursue dialogue. Have the difficult conversations with the parties to major conflicts, and thereby reach compromises that neither the great powers nor traditional power politics can deliver. Norway’s foreign policy establishment has an unshakeable belief that this formula was the key to the success of the Oslo Accords. For years, however, the Norwegian model has delivered few major, lasting breakthroughs. And the Oslo Accords themselves have lost their lustre. That is demoralising in itself. On top of that, Norway’s foreign policy establishment has been badly shaken by the fallout from the Epstein affair. No one knows precisely what happened. And we should be careful not to accuse people of things they have not done. But Terje Rød-Larsen, his wife Mona Juul, Børge Brende and Thorbjørn Jagland were all closer to Epstein than prudence would have counselled. This has led to hearings in the Storting, Norway’s parliament, that clarified nothing. And to a series of more serious inquiries - including criminal investigations into Juul, Rød-Larsen and Jagland. What makes all this awkward is that Norway’s current prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, was foreign minister from 2005 to 2012. Even if he did nothing illegal - and he probably did not - several of the failings surrounding the funding of Rød-Larsen’s think tank, the International Peace Institute, occurred on his watch. For all these reasons, I would not be surprised if it emerged that Norway was the real driving force behind this pointless phone call - Russia’s maximalist demands remain the same as ever. If you are a major donor to Ukraine, it is hardly impossible to devise a roadmap that also includes a few requests going back and forth. I could, of course, be wrong. But the idea of small countries using dialogue to resolve an apparently intractable conflict comes straight out of the Oslo model’s playbook.