Independent macro research & analysis on fiscal flows, Federal Reserve & Treasury operations, and balance-sheet mechanics.
Joined May 2018
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Our November 6th Market Update is live.
Margin debt has been decelerating since the summer.
Yesterday: S&P down more than 4%, Nasdaq down around 6%.
Fund blow-ups and leveraged ETF rebalancing: ~$60-80B of forced selling.
What caused It, what we missed, and why this isn't 2022:
appliedmmt.com/11-06-2026-ma…
7 straight business days of net fiscal injection, October 27th through November 4th, per Treasury: +$202.4 billion.
$32.765T of federal debt is held by the public.
Each dollar came into existence when the federal government spent it into existence. Buying a Treasury moves it from a deposit to a bond that pays interest.
That debt is the private sector's savings, in interest-bearing form.
The debt is not a "burden" on anyone.
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Net fiscal flow on November 3rd: +$35.9 billion, per Treasury.
That makes 6 straight business days of net injection, October 27th through November 3rd: +$200.8 billion.
Treasury paid $33.5 billion in interest on Treasury securities on November 2nd, its largest interest payment since August 17th's $85.4 billion.
Bessent wants lower long-term rates without the Fed.
The TGA: built to ~$950B.
Long-end buybacks: doubled to $4B+ per operation, starting Sept 9.
None of it reaches yields at the source. One fiscal lever does.
appliedmmt.com/lower-rates-w…
Modern Macro Technologies retweeted
In a crazy bit of irony, only MMT sees this massive amount of deficit spending as inflationary while the rest of mainstream macro sees this as deflationary.
BREAKING: US annual interest expense is up to a record 18.5% of federal government revenue.
This is officially above the previous record of 18.4% set in 1991.
This percentage has more than QUADRUPLED over the last 4 years as interest expenditures on public debt skyrocketed.
US annual interest expense now stands at a record $1.25 trillion, more than 4x the level seen in 1991.
Meanwhile, the 30Y Treasury yield is trading at ~5.21%, just 13 basis points from its highest level since 2007.
By comparison, the 30-year yield was oscillating at ~8.00% in 1991, underscoring how much the US debt burden has grown since then.
The US debt crisis is in uncharted territory.
Modern Macro Technologies retweeted
Market Update is live!
Steady climb higher as expect... but we're getting close to some real fun!
And how Bessent could actually bring rates down.
appliedmmt.com/08-27-2026-ma…
"MMT was tried during the pandemic."
It wasn't. There is no "doing" MMT. It describes the monetary system as it already functions.
appliedmmt.com/addressing-th…
In 1861, Congress was warned the national debt would leave the nation “destroyed.”
We're still hearing this sentiment today.
We found 238 years of these warnings and put each on the curve at the level it described.
All 40 of quotes, every one checked against the original source and linked:
appliedmmt.com/debt-warnings…
