Setting the standard for Bitcoin-backed loans.
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Joined October 2022
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Last quarter we shipped the first transparent, size-based rate table in crypto lending.
Today we go further.
Arch is dropping rates platform-wide and simplifying the size-tier structure for our clients.
We now have the lowest qualified custodian rates in our industry!
Bitcoin’s supply grows about 4.5% from here, and then it stops.
Gold and dollars keep compounding.
We ran all three forward 50, 100, and 150 years at today’s growth rates.
These are projections at today’s rates, so the assumptions matter.
Gold reaches 9.1x only if mine output keeps growing with the stock. At a flat 3,300 tonnes a year, it’s 3.2x.
M2’s yearly growth has ranged from below zero to above 25%. 6.7% is the 67-year average.
In 2017, Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin “a fraud.” It traded at $4,131 that day.
On Oct 19, J.P. Morgan Asset Management published its first long-term Bitcoin forecast: 10% a year over the next 10-15 years. That’s above its forecasts for U.S. stocks, private equity and gold.
Here is the record, with Bitcoin’s price on each day:
Nov 2015: “That’s going to be stopped.” $412
Sep 2017: “It’s a fraud.” $4,131
Jun 2018: “Just beware.” $7,678
Oct 2021: “I personally think that Bitcoin is worthless.” $57,485
Sep 2022: “They are decentralized Ponzi schemes.” $18,547
Jan 2023: “Bitcoin itself is a hyped-up fraud, a pet rock.” $21,087
Dec 2023: “If I was the government, I’d close it down.” $43,746
Jan 2024: “I call it the pet rock.” $42,743
Jan 2025: “Bitcoin itself has no intrinsic value.” $94,488
May 2025: “I defend your right to buy bitcoin.” $105,606
The shift started in 2025.
In May, JPMorgan said it would let clients buy Bitcoin.
In October, Bloomberg reported it would accept Bitcoin as loan collateral for institutional clients.
Then the forecast. JPMorgan’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions put Bitcoin’s base case at 10% a year.
Private equity: 9.8%
U.S. large-cap stocks: 7.5%
Gold: 5.5%
None of this says what Bitcoin does next year. It does show how far the conversation has moved inside JPMorgan in nine years.
Arch lends against Bitcoin, so holders can get dollars without selling. If you want to see what that looks like for your position, our team can walk you through it.
In The Bitcoin Standard, @saifedean gives one test for what can hold value and work as money: salability.
Here's what it means and why only one asset alive today passes all of it. 🧵
Salable across scale: the asset divides and combines to fit any trade, big or small.
If you can't sell a piece of it without destroying its value, you're stuck selling the whole thing or nothing.
Gold = small bars trade at a worse price.
Land = you can't sell the doorway of your house.
Stocks = splits are corporate decisions.
Bitcoin = every coin divides into 100M sats.