Arcturus21

Options Mosaic Preview Note for Thurs., Jan. 22, 2026 ******************************************************************* 🌞Good morning. Happy PCE day to everyone! 🌙➡️🌅 Traders are quite long this morning after the overnight GlobeX session. We have PCE data out at 10am (the initial unemployment claims data had little impact on markets). Big move overnight, hard to believe we don't do some back-testing but make no mistake, Trump is not interested in this market slipping back down much while he is on the world stage in Davos. He told us this himself yesterday when he complained about the hit the market took last week on Greenland. 🎯 The overnight straddle was 41 points (we are right there at the moment). This morning, based on a current spot price of 6915, the straddle is 29 points. This gives us a range of 6944-6886. @OptionsDepth 🔷Here's your 0dte positioning for today: 🔷Looks like customers may be in the process of structuring a short 6950C 30w fly (dealers long the fly) but we need more puts to be bought by customers. Here is the same chart with calls (green) and puts (red) instead of net numbers (in case someone wants to critique this). I will be watching this today to see how it develops. 🔷The farther off of 6950 we close the happier customers are - max payoff is above 6980 or below 6920. ⚖️6900 is my pivot today: ⬆️6900, then Wednesday's high at 6910, followed by a significant resistance zone at 6925 (which we saw overnight). ▶️Extended targets sit at 6940 and 6950. Of course, above 6950, there is a strong desire to close above 6980. ⬇️6900, 6870 is the critical level - a break there opens up a fast move to 6850, which is the major downside target. Below that, 6845 and 6840 offer support, with 6840 coinciding with the approximate gamma flip zone. The daily straddle low at 6834 marks the lower boundary of the expected range. ▶️Current positioning strongly favors price stability around 6875 (below the fly), but the asymmetry below that is 👀- a break of 6870 could accelerate quickly while upside moves should be more orderly. ▶️Pre-10 AM expect contained action; post-PCE will determine my (the market's) directional bias. Might be wise to be patient. ⚠️ I'm being quite generous this morning so a like AND repost is appreciated if you find this level of detail helpful.