Auber

A few points I'd like to highlight regarding the past few days: - I think Opendoor chose not to provide direct Contribution Margin (CM) guidance for Q4 because it is more difficult to forecast than revenue. Over the last quarters, CM has come in below management’s guidance. For Q3, the forecast was 4.0-4.5%, yet the company reported 3.3%. A similar situation occurred in Q1, management indicated it would be the strongest CM since Q2 2024, which implied a range of roughly 4.7-6.0%, but it ultimately came in at 4.4%. That said, the company's AVG CM for the year currently stands at 4.5%, which is not bad. Even if Q4 brings that figure down and the annual average ends up closer to 3%, it would still be in line with 2025 levels while supporting a larger inventory base. The tighter the CM, the more inventory volume you need to transact. - I believe last Friday's sharp selloff was driven by a combination of factors. In the risk section of the 10-Q, the company stated that it cannot guarantee it will not be classified as a "large institutional investor." Based on the legislation written in July, it arguably should not fall under that definition. However, the ambiguity introduced by the Treasury's draft guidance published in October has left the situation unclear, and the company itself acknowledged that it is closely monitoring how the rules are ultimately finalized. I think retail investors are generally more comfortable with language such as "no assurance" than institutional investors and funds, even when the most likely outcome remains favorable for the company. On top of that, stock-based compensation (SBC) continues to be a frequent point of criticism among both algorithms and investors discussing the company. Looking at the financials from the outside, it's easy to see why many people focus on the annual net loss figure, which is heavily impacted by SBC expenses. That is not to say the company is not currently losing money, but rather that the accounting presentation makes those losses appear significantly larger than the underlying economic reality. - It's also worth remembering that the company has only been in rebuilding mode for about a year. That's a very short period of time to evaluate execution. I wouldn't even classify the major declines in the stock price as evidence of poor execution. The entire real estate sector has been under pressure due to macroeconomic conditions. This is a structural issue affecting the industry as a whole, not something unique to Opendoor.

I haven't watched the full earnings call yet, but I'll finish it this weekend. The numbers are consistent with what Kaz said was going to happen. The pricing concessions have resulted in lower revenue. My tracker estimated approximately 2,543 homes sold at an average price close to $385K, while the final reported average, based on 2,728 homes sold, came in closer to $370K. This could happen again in Q4, which is why I believe management was more conservative with its Q4 guidance. For now, the tracker points to a potential floor of $1.15B in revenue, but actual revenue has consistently come in above that floor due to revenue sources beyond home sales alone, as well as homes that were not detected by the tracker. In Accountable, they have added the listing contracts they have secured, where Opendoor does not purchase the property but simply lists it for sale. It's important to keep in mind that if one of these properties sells, the revenue will not include the full value of the home. Because of that, the tracker will need to be updated to avoid misinterpreting revenue figures. The volume is still relatively low, so the impact should not be significant for now. However, as volume grows and these properties become increasingly mixed with homes that are actually carried on Opendoor's balance sheet, discrepancies are likely to emerge.

As Opendoor continues to roll out new products, it is gradually moving away from the traditional CM/rotation relationship. Obviously, rotation remains one of its core characteristics, but a tracker could mistakenly assume that a home listed for more than 120 days is losing money when that may no longer be the case. All of these products reduce the percentage of interest Opendoor pays on each property, and in some cases, such as the 3P model, I assume they may eliminate it entirely. Over the past two months, they've been moving very quickly to launch new products.

In recent weeks, the number of price cuts has been declining (week x week). The absolute value of price cuts has dropped by roughly 40–50%, and the number of units with price cuts has decreased by around 20%. Last week wasn’t great in terms of delistings, the trend has fallen compared to September. It was something that could happen, maintaining that level of momentum is difficult in a quarter that is seasonally weak for the sector. However, for now, the potential Q4 revenue remains above $1.2B, a milestone not reached since 2022. It could end up being the strongest Q4 in the company’s history under the current macro environment. The number of homes currently above 160 days is around 310, of which about 50 are from before I started tracking. This figure has increased from the 150–160 range seen a few months ago. Still, without the specific context of each home, we can’t determine the real impact on CM, since new products like Own or CNML may be reducing the temporal risk of the inventory. On the other hand, the percentage of tracked homes exceeding 120 days is around 16–17%, and many of those end up rotating before reaching 160 days.

Opendoor had been looking for a Head of Mortgage Ops. for months, looks like they finally found one👀

We’ve already adapted to Opendoor’s new API (Zeus), and it looks much cleaner than the previous one. A few weeks ago, the Q4 forecast based on the sales pace was 1.4–1.6B (3,500–4,000 units sold), and that forecast still holds despite the high mortgage rates. The market continues to value Opendoor based on the 10‑year bond and mortgage rates, yet the business isn’t slowing down in a quarter that should theoretically be weak due to seasonality. There are 2 operational months left to finish Q4 track and 1 month until the Q3 earnings. Keep in mind that even if the number of units sold ends up within that range, revenue could come in slightly lower due to concessions on listing prices. However, the tracker will maintain the listing price from the moment the home is delisted.

Gotta say, I'm really liking how the Drops page is shaping up. It's also a quick and easy way to see where Opendoor is currently licensed and offering mortgages. Love that the map nodes don't just pop in out of nowhere. They stay put and load in as you get closer. Really smart call, makes the whole thing feel way smoother. Great work, @opendoor team 👏

I like that simplified topbar menus. Maybe in the user Dashboard you could add a direct reference to the Help Center or to articles the user might be interested in. On the other hand, on the map there’s one thing I miss on the listings map: homes I’ve already opened don’t get marked in any way. When a search returns a lot of homes, it’s hard to keep track of which ones I’ve already looked at, especially since house hunting usually happens across several sessions over weeks. A simple visual state on the price badge for visited homes (a muted color, for example) would make it easy to see at a glance what’s new and keep exploring homes I haven’t seen yet. Combined with the existing favorites, it would give three clear states: seen, unseen, and saved. @morganb

I noticed that on the homepage hero, the thin white text ("Get a cash offer and explore the ways we can help you sell your home." and "Takes 5 minutes | Your information stays private") gets hard to read where it sits over the lighter areas of the photo, especially the windows and curtains. I tested a small CSS change: a soft, localized radial shadow behind that block, using the same #292011 tone as your existing gradients, plus a subtle text-shadow. It improves legibility without darkening the photo, and the "Get an offer" button stays the focal point. It's a subtle change, but I think the privacy line matters. Before/after screenshots. @morganb @fahdananta