Labor's primary vote has collapsed to be down over 47% in an electorate (and its predecessors) it has held since their inception almost 40 years ago.

There is this idea that wages can just keep rising and "catch up" with housing prices. On paper, yes. In reality, not really. We live in a massively interconnected world, that is advancing technologically by the day. And the more expensive labour in Australia gets, the more likely it becomes that jobs are lost to AI or offshoring. We are seeing this playing out at the moment and the rise of taxpayer funded employment has masked the severity of the adjustment so far. Australia lost much of its high tech manufacturing years ago and today, a car manufacturing plant in China making the exact same cars is far more efficient, particularly dollar for dollar than those in Europe. But it was thought that the so called "knowledge economy" and white collar jobs were safe, but now they are the most exposed. Yet we have a system that drives people to demand much higher wages to keep up with house prices that detached from household earnings years ago. So in an attempt to acquire something as simple as shelter, particularly shelter that reflects one's level of income relative to the median, Australia is increasingly pricing itself out of the global marketplace. Ultimately, the resilience seen so far is not going to last forever and people can forget about wages catching up with housing costs without it crushing competitiveness in the process.

The leaked Mass Effect 5 trailer looks absolutely amazing and a great angle on the post Mass Effect 3 galaxy. I really hope EA sells the IP to someone who will do it justice (CD Project Red etc), not just have it sit there gathering dust following Bioware's closure.

While its absolutely true that government can play a major role in fighting inflation, its also worth noting that the market is the ultimate arbiter of bond yields. If bank funding costs rise due to inflationary pressures or a broader global repricing in the cost of money, this has to get passed on to loan holders for banks to maintain their margins. On a longer term time horizon, it has to get passed on to loan holders for the banking system not to implode.

On a very bad day, I get well over a dozen abusive comments and even some DM's. And that is to say nothing of the wackos who have tried to take things even further. I am just a random bloke with a decently large following who maintains a high degree of civility, even when attacked on the regular. Yet me being civil and engaging in earnest debate doesnt stop people who regularly claim they are peaceful, just want to fight evil or something along those narrative lines from being absolute bastards. Now I'm a big boy who believes in free speech, so I let the overwhelming majority of it slide without argument or blocking. But it just goes to show how often people who claim they want civility or to turn down the temperature are absolutely full of crap and will gladly attack people based entirely on ideology. Even when there is little basis for that attack aside from an earnestly held disagreement.

When we hit 2019 levels of negative equity, then there will be a modicum of justification of concern over this as a broader issue. Another ~15% in price falls to go then.... More on this in detail coming to Burnouteconomics.com in the weeks ahead.

The problem was housing prices rising to such insane heights, not the fact that they are now unwinding from a situation where a capital city median at $1.227m was normal. Like Japan the original sin was prices and debt getting out of control, not the inevitable bust.

Fantastic, two more years of this please.

The rental market is going to see the lowest number of new students coming in, in well over a decade on these numbers. Some positive news on the horizon for renters, the opposite for those hoping for a continuing worsening supply/demand imbalance to support housing prices.

'Anthony Albanese sensationally claims Helen Haines ‘dirt file’ proves her ‘integrity’ in extraordinary defence of smear campaign document' This is emblematic of a PM who too often refuses to acknowledge the reality of his government's actions. news24.com.au/politics/austr…

Amidst the current highly charged political environment, it would be fair to state that both sides of politics have claimed crap economic outcomes are tip top during their respective times in office. The problem for the Albanese government? The failure is cumulative. People are feeling the failures and mistakes that kicked off as early as the Howard government and have got worse and worse over time. Which should serve as a warning for Albanese' successor, whoever that may be. Either get the country back on a more positive path to improvement, or own not only your own failures, but all those who came before you.

As housing prices continue to fall rapidly. A suggestion: Note down all the politicians complaining about falling prices, so you know to never take them seriously in the future when they talk up housing affordability. Which they most certainly will try.

I'm sad to say that the commentary on the Helen Haines incident has heavily descended into partisan farce. Too heavily defined by claims of the other side "turning up the heat", but generally not acknowledging their own sides role. Personally, I would like to see political discourse conducted with a great deal more civility. I deal with the abuse, false accusations and threats on a far too regular basis. However, I also understand that we have arrived at a juncture when we have a political discourse that is too often dominated by dodgy political narratives and propaganda, so greater frustration is increasingly inevitable. This is a choice made by elements of the political and commentator classes, even if the rest of us believe it deeply foolhardy. Ultimately, I think this should be a time for introspection, to assess in a fact based way what has gone wrong, what is likely to deteriorate further in the future and then formulate a strategy to address that. In reality, I expect growing censorship and suppression will be the order of the day, which will only make the problem worse.

"The enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend" A seemingly evergreen phrase in 2026...

"If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide." - Abraham Lincoln on the future and ultimate fate of the United States

I have been developing a theory on why this is for a while now and the more events unfold, the more certain I become that its correct.

Kudos to @AntipodeanMacro they called it a while ago. Another headwind for the housing market next year.

Did someone just say Jackdaw....😉

I know, lets listen to one of the senior members of a government who laid the groundwork for the rise of populism and broad based discontent. About avoiding the rise of populism and broad based discontent....

I would not be at all surprised to see the changes to tax treatment of family trusts junked. Its easy enough to just put family members on the payroll as the govts own fact sheet stated. I suspect some in Labor will not want to be pursuing this at 50-50 in the polls.