Bitcoin dipped toward $79K last week. Nasdaq fell 2.6% on Oct 22, oil is climbing, Middle East tensions are rising. And per the FT, OpenAI cut its valuation for the new round from $1.4T to $1.25T. Risk-off mode. What does it mean for Bitcoin and what do the metrics show? substack.com/@adlerinsight/n…

Market context explained visually.

Short-term holders are shifting from taking profits to realizing losses. The 24-hour exchange inflow balance has turned negative. How large is this imbalance, and what would signal that stress is easing? I break it down in Morning Brief #287. axeladlerjr.com/short-term-h…

Visual overview of the current market.

Bitcoin is 6% above the average purchase price of new players. Over the past week, this group's profit cushion narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, but their cost basis continues to rise. Where is the level below which new buyers would be at a loss, and what does the Young/Old Ratio moving average crossover say - in today's Morning Brief. axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-6…

Bitcoin compression continues. The 30D High and Low range has narrowed from 13% to 6%. Price has been in the compression zone for the 9th consecutive day, between $80K and $86K. Yesterday price bounced off the SMA 365 and closed at $80.5K. This is a new 30D low. Volatility compression usually ends with an impulse. Key levels: $86K above, SMA 365 below.

On July 1, MVRV Percentile reached 0% at a price of $59.3K. This was followed by a recovery to 32% (September 27); the indicator held around 30-32% for about two weeks, but failed to consolidate and pulled back to 25%. The market remains in the early-to-mid accumulation phase.

Bitcoin sentiment is cooling, dropping from 83 (peak on August 26) to 45 and exiting the Extreme Greed zone, while the price has held in a narrow range over the same period. Fear & Greed fell from 71 to 51 and the share of bullish votes on CoinGecko from 78% to 72%. The overheating has cleared without a sell-off, which is a healthier base for the market.

BTW, 7.81K BTC was pulled from US ETFs yesterday. axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitco…

Visual overview of the current market.

Coins continue to leave exchanges, while the futures market remains balanced. We look at what is behind the sharp decline in outflows and why the positioning index is near zero. Details in Morning Brief 285👇 axeladlerjr.com/exchange-out…

Strong earnings from SpaceX revived interest in AI-related stocks: third-quarter revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion, and its shares gained 7.8%. The Nasdaq rose 1.1%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Dow added 0.7%. Improving sentiment in equities provided a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin’s gains. Is demand for BTC strong enough to sustain the recovery, and what does on-chain data reveal about who’s buying now? A closer look in Bitcoin Market State Report #6 substack.com/@adlerscryptoin…

Bitcoin is 11% above the short-term holder cost basis. The share of new buyers has climbed from 6.6% to 11.2% since July. Where’s the key level? Full breakdown in Morning Brief #284👇 axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-1…

Bitcoin supply in profit has recovered to 14.11 million BTC after falling below 11 million. The metric has moved out of the Bottom Discovery zone and sits just below the Liquidity Accumulation threshold of 14.19 million BTC. Supply profitability is recovering.

What the market looks like right now 🐳

Short-term whales' paper profit fell from a record $9.8 billion to $4.6 billion over the past month. On the same day, October 20, whales sent 10.6K BTC to exchanges, nearly three times the usual amount. Profits are shrinking while more coins are landing on exchanges. What this means for the market and what to watch next, we break down in Morning Brief #283. axeladlerjr.com/whales-unrea…

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts for the first time: 10% annually over a 10-15-year horizon. For comparison: U.S. large-cap stocks - 7.5%, U.S. REITs - 8.2%, gold - 5.5%. BTC’s expected annualized volatility, however, is 55%. jpmorgan.com/global

Market context explained visually.

Bitcoin is correcting: down 6% from its early October high and just 1.5% above support. The price structure signal is now neutral and futures sellers have the upper hand. Where does a correction end and a deeper decline begin? I break it down in Morning Brief #282 👇 axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-in-a…