Day trader calling BTC with macro, not hopium. Policy moves markets. I connect the dots. Follow for day-trade analysis with a mix of politics behind the tape.
Joined August 2022
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Lol and influencers like @cryptorover keep saying we are in a bull market 🤦♂️
“We are instruments endowed with sense and memory. Our senses are piano keys upon which surrounding nature plays, and which often play upon themselves.”
— Denis Diderot, Conversation Between D’Alembert and Diderot (1769)
💯💯💯
🇺🇸 A POLITICAL AD AIRED DURING THE WORLD SERIES TELLING MILLIONS OF AMERICANS: “LIBERALS ARE THE NEW RACISTS.”
Paid for by America Next, the spot stitches together clips of AOC talking about white supremacy, Ilhan Omar saying the country should fear white men more, and Sunny Hostin declaring that “everything is about race.”
A white woman says she can’t even show her face because she expects hatred over her skin color, before accusing today’s left of becoming obsessed with race and turning that obsession into racism.
I honestly never thought I’d come across an ad like this 🤣
Writer: Sol
Fed held. Alphabet dumped ~10% after hours. Bitcoin already back under 80k.
Price: rejected 81–82k, now ~79.8k
Fed: held 3.75–4.00%, vote 10–2 — Cook and Hammack wanted a hike (@KobeissiLetter)
Equities: $GOOGL shed ~$450B after hours on EPS miss + −$9B free cash flow; Microsoft beat; Amazon will show us their cards tonight
Asia: Samsung printed record profit and still sold off; KOSPI weak
Liquidations: ~$335M in 24h, mostly longs
Traders: BlackRock ETF's just bought another $136M of BTC, which isn't much (@cryptorover). Besides, that's not a local bottom signal while AI cash burn is nuking Mag7.
Magnet: weekly 50 near 76k
54k TP1 (mid Jan. latest).
"Inflation is too high."
Two FOMC voters wanted a hike tonight.
Markets still pricing December odds.
Hawkish hold and only a hold because of midterms otherwise it would have been a hike.
Not a green light for BTC.
$136M from BlackRock while Alphabet is −10% after hours and BTC is back under 80k.
@cryptorover thinks accumulation and he is wrong.
I think trapped longs.
Second straight quarter of negative free cash flow. Trailing FCF collapsed about 73%.
That's the AI spend bill showing up.
Fed just reminded everyone inflation is still elevated.
Bad combo for longs. Dont listen to low IQ influencers telling you higher in this risk off environment.
Cloud doubled and Search still missed.
Negative free cash flow of about $9B.
Markets don't care about the AI story when the cash leaves the building.
Risk assets bleed with Mag7.
BTC is not a hedge.
Fed held with two hikes on the dissent board.
Alphabet just vaporized ~$450B after hours.
BTC rejected 82k and is already back under 80k.
Weekly 50 near 76k is the magnet.
Any pops are for adding to shorts.
Minnesota is as lawless and 3rd world as Somalia itself now.
How can this be America?
All thanks to trash like @IlhanMN @GovTimWalz and @keithellison
When accountability? How do we even begin to fix this mess?
How are the citizens of that state okay with this level of mass corruption?
@TheJusticeDept this needs attention!
🚨 HOLY CRAP! THIS is the video that Minnesota leftist prosecutors charged Cam Higby with a FELONY over
He dressed as a Muslim and asked if he could vote with ZERO ID under Minnesota's "vouching" system
"Do we need ID?"
WORKER: "NOPE!" 🤯
HIGBY: "I have 7 other people who I live with."
And the worker says those people can be vouched for to, and "NO ID FOR ANY"
This man exposed a corrupt election system and their answer is to criminally charge him, despite NO BALLOTS BEING CAST in this case
Minnesota is becoming like a 3rd world nation. Its elections are corrupt and voters need to elect Republicans to make it stop!
Fed day and the crowd is still long.
Price: 81k. Swept 81.3k this week and got sold right away.
Fed: Hold at 2 PM. @KobeissiLetter calls it a hawkish pause and @UBS sees two more hikes coming.
Rates: 10-year sitting near 5%.
Oil: WTI back over $100. UBS just raised its Brent call to $110 and the Navy is telling ships to stay out of Hormuz.
Equities: Record Nasdaq longs walking into megacap earnings. Goldman is warning about futures selling.
BTC: MARA moved 2,000 coins to BitGo in two days. Funding still positive with two out of three traders long.
Calendar: Fed today, midterms next week. Weekly 50 sits near 76k.
54k TP1 (mid Jan. latest).
Britain's budget this morning went exactly how you'd guess.
First they changed the pension lock to save 15 billion pounds. Then they hit the banks with an extra 3% surcharge.
Right after that the Chancellor promised to fully fund defense and meet the NATO target.
So pensioners and banks pay, and the war budget gets topped off. You know a chunk of that ends up in Kyiv...
Zelensky never misses a UK budget.
Rioters paying for what they break should've been the rule 20 years ago.
But read the end. Platforms get 24 hours to pull posts when the government asks, or they get blocked.
That's the part Macron actually wanted.
🇫🇷 The French Senate has passed the “Rioters Pay” bill, making rioters financially liable for damages during public demonstrations.
They can be ordered to pay up to €10,000 ($11,000) for property damage, even if they did not personally commit the vandalism.
Liability covers anyone who “knowingly participated” in a group formed to vandalize, or who stayed after two police dispersal warnings.
Social media platforms must remove content inciting violence, vandalism, or insurrection within 24 hours of an authority request, or face blocking and delisting.
To recover unpaid damages, the state can seize parts of social benefits, including family allowances, housing assistance, supplements, and France’s minimum-income benefit.
So the plan is a short, intense campaign right after the midterms.
Eight months in, $47 billion spent, and the Navy is already telling ships to stay out of Hormuz.
Oil didn't wait for the vote. WTI is back over $100 and that's the tell.
@cryptorover thinks deal and moon. I think it escalated and dump.
Dont get trapped.
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The bombers are ready. The ships are moving. And Gulf states have just been privately warned to brace for what comes after the midterms...
The U.S. has told regional allies to expect a “short, intense” military campaign against Iran.
Patriot systems are being rushed to Israel from Texas, troops have been pulled off vulnerable bases, and an additional carrier strike group is moving into position.
“We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump said at a rally last week. “Or they’ll agree.”
The war is now 8 months old and has cost America at least $47 billion, with 60% of that spent on munitions.
Iran has weathered over 20,000 strikes and still holds hundreds to thousands of missiles.
It has spent the current lull rebuilding, restocking, and drawing up new retaliation plans targeting economic and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf.
Meanwhile, mediators are scrambling to revive talks. Iran is demanding tough concessions. The U.S. won’t budge on the nuclear question.
Trump hasn’t made his final call yet, but the window for a deal is closing fast...
Source: WSJ / Writer: Michael
With @KillaXBT on the 10% move.
Wrong direction though.
Fed day, 10-year near 5%, WTI over $100, and miners sending coins to custodians. That's not a launchpad for the 90s.
Weekly 50 sits near 76k. That's the magnet.
$BTC is on the verge of a major move.
With FOMC today, we know the drill. So far, we’re building a clear bearish narrative into my pivot, a level that has proven its track record over the past 2 years.
The minimum expected move over the next 7–10 days is 10%+. That means significant volatility will occur over the next week or two. Since we’re derisking into the date, I’m leaning toward a bullish reaction afterwards, potentially taking BTC into the 90Ks.
If things go the other way, we could see another 10% drop from current prices. That’s not my main expectation, with a bearish narrative already building into this date, a further 10% decline feels a little extreme. For now, I’m bullish & remain bullish.
We’ve got an eventful few weeks ahead, midterms, the monthly close, and billions in positions already wiped out on one side. I wonder which direction is more exposed heading into the midterms, especially when so many are expecting a bearish reaction.
We’ll find out soon.
Record Nasdaq longs into Fed day and megacap earnings. What could go wrong.
Stocks and bond yields are moving together again. When the Nasdaq unwinds, BTC doesn't get a pass.
Bottom is not in.
Record Nasdaq Longs Walk Into Megacap Earnings Week: Goldman Warns "Meaningful Futures Selling Could Ensue" zerohedge.com/markets/record…
A hawkish pause with oil over $100 and the 10-year near 5%.
Longs are still paying funding into this. Two out of three traders are on the long side.
They're betting the Fed blinks. It won't.
It's officially Fed day.
We expect a "hawkish pause" today.
The Fed will hold interest rates unchanged but lay the groundwork for a December rate hike, bringing total rate hikes in 2026 to +50 basis points.
Why?
Because the US economy is now facing both supply-side and rising demand-side inflationary pressures, while the labor market continues to weaken beneath the surface.
This puts the Fed in an increasingly difficult position: Inflation is demanding tighter monetary policy, while underlying labor market weakness is calling for the opposite.
We expect the Fed to prioritize inflation today, keeping the door open for further tightening in December.
Do it @POTUS we support you.
Communism needs to be eradicated.
🇧🇷🇺🇸 The same account that first reported Bolsonaro's extraction from Brazil by the U.S. tweeted overnight:
"Get ready for tomorrow..."
Is Lula about to get Maduro'd? 😂
Source: @SimonLevyMx / Writer: Michael
