BTCVIX retweeted
All 15 cards from the upcoming McDonald’s Pokémon TCG set have now been revealed AND I NEED ALL OF THEM 🍟
Each Happy Meal will include 2 random cards from the 15-card set, along with one of 15 mini Happy Meal box Pokémon toys
Here are the confirmed dates and regions:
🇺🇸 US: November 10th - December 14th
🇨🇦 Canada: November 3rd - December 7th
🇦🇺 Australia: November 5th - December 9th
The cards will be reprints with exclusive McDonald’s set numbering, and some will have a confetti holo
#PokemonTCG
BTCVIX retweeted
Reviewing Texas registrants, with each voter’s 2026 ballot status through Oct. 27, turnout history, and modeled party.
The early electorate is R+2 on modeled party. The full 2022 electorate was R+12; 2024 was R+9. White voters are 55% of early voters, down from 62% in 2022.
Democrats have banked more of their expected vote. Lean Democrats have reached 83% of their 2022 turnout, Strong Democrats 73%.
Strong Republicans are at 62%, Lean Republicans 57%.
Under 30 voters have already matched their entire 2022 turnout.
But the pool still available is R+17 to R+20 on modeled party and 52 to 62% White depending on who turns out. Republicans have a substantial reserve, and the later days of early voting have run more Republican than the first.
Project the remainder using either the 2022 or 2024 turnout pattern and the final electorate lands at R+8 to R+10. That holds whether total turnout is 8.7 million or 10.6 million. The shape of this electorate is largely set.
Scored on its 2024 presidential vote, that electorate backed Trump by 12 to 14 points. Composition alone moves the margin a point or two toward Democrats, not ten.
So how does that square with public polls showing Talarico ahead by about 2 and Abbott by 3 or 4? Only through switching. If 2024 Trump voters hold at 89% for Paxton, the going consensus, this electorate produces Paxton +3.
A Talarico lead needs 13 to 15 points of net movement among 2024 Trump voters, or a final electorate several points bluer than its 2024 vote suggests. Abbott leading in the same polls tells you the movement is specific to Paxton: same voters, different candidate, five points apart.
Early vote trackers tell us who is showing up. They cannot tell us how those voters are choosing. That is what we have been measuring this week, among early voters and among the voters still to come.
BTCVIX retweeted
We've been blown away by demand for Hyperliquid node peering and mempool access.
Guess we underestimated the market for ultra-fast infra at $200/mo.
So much so, that we had to perform multiple upgrades yesterday on our own services to meet the influx.
Both peering and Pro data plans come with mempool on every connection, of course.
0xarchive.io/peering
Basically, your node takes its blocks from one upstream peer at a time. Public seeds rotate, turn you away the moment they're full, and most of them don't provide the mempool at all.
With ours, you get a fixed, allowlisted peer in Tokyo, as close as possible to Hyperliquid infra. Your node gets pending transactions too, so it sees signed orders before they land in a block.
How early is that? On the median trade, our own mempool feed sees the order 338 ms before Hyperliquid's public trade feed.
$200 a node a month for peering. Flat, no usage or egress charges, no 0xArchive account needed. Or $200/mo for a 0xArchive Pro data plan, if you don't run a node.
0xarchive.io/pricing
To connect your node:
1. Test your round trip to Tokyo, free, no account: 0xarchive.io/latency
2. Subscribe with your node's IPv4 at checkout
3. Pin the peer address we email you and restart
See Hyperliquid orders before they hit the public trade feed.
0xArchive Pro streams the mempool, so you get each signed order before it lands in a block. On the median trade, that's 338 ms earlier.
0xarchive.io/pricing
BTCVIX retweeted
I think most people approach market selection backwards. They start with what they want to trade (a coin, index, stock, whatever) and then try to force a signal out of it. The market comes first and the edge is something they hope to find afterward.
The better approach is to start with the effect you’re trying to capture. Ask what behavior you’re exploiting, whether that’s momentum, mean reversion, some structural flow, etc. and then ask where you would expect that effect to actually show up.
Universe selection matters as much as the signal and sometimes more. A mediocre signal applied to the right set of markets can beat a brilliant signal applied to the wrong ones. Where you trade can matter more than how you trade.
BTCVIX retweeted
Kraken’s parent paid up to $550M for its own CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. Then it picked @HyperliquidX to run its US perps on.
If approved, Bitnomial owns and clears the markets, NinjaTrader carries the client accounts, and Hyperliquid runs the order book underneath. HIP-3* adds the allowlist a regulated deployer needs, without touching any of the permissionless markets already live.
Meanwhile, CME is suing the CFTC over perps.
Payward, the parent company of Kraken, announced its intention to be the first CFTC-regulated deployer on HIP-3* markets. Payward will use Hyperliquid as the infrastructure layer to deploy perpetual futures markets for US clients. Subject to regulatory approval, Bitnomial, Payward’s CFTC-regulated DCM and DCO, would act as the HIP-3* deployer: creating, owning, and administering the markets and clearing and settling the contracts. If approved, NinjaTrader Clearing, Payward’s CFTC-registered FCM, would carry client accounts.
HIP-3 will support optional deployer configuration for permissioned markets in a future network upgrade. This set of additional deployer functionality is collectively called HIP-3*. At its core, HIP-3* activation involves an onchain allowlist managed by the deployer or its sub-deployers. The functionality is strictly additive to HIP-3; its use is optional and up to the deployer. Existing markets remain unchanged. The initial release is available on testnet, where specifications are preliminary and subject to change based on feedback.
Hyperliquid is a neutral infrastructure layer with the goal of supporting large parts of the financial system. HIP-3* gives deployers additional functionality to operate deployments consistent with the requirements applicable to them. As with HIP-3, HIP-3* deployers are independent operators who use Hyperliquid as the onchain infrastructure layer for their own markets, while retaining control and responsibility over their deployment.
BTCVIX retweeted
I hate these people so much and anyone who listens to any of them has my ire
Here's a final installment in my series on how polls could go wrong next week. This time, I show evidence that pollsters may not be reaching enough Trump voters from red, rural areas
gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10…
BTCVIX retweeted
Democrats: Ranked choice voting makes for freer, less polarized elections!
Also Democrats: *immediately proceed to game ranked choice voting*
BREAKING: NYT reports that operatives with Democratic Alaska U.S. Senate candidate Mary Peltola’s campaign were behind the effort to find & recruit a candidate named Dan Sullivan to run against incumbent GOP Senator Dan S. Sullivan in an effort to confuse voters and peel votes from him.
Specifically, NYT says they have reviewed text messages and documents that reveal in summer 2025, a Peltola staffer received instructions from campaign staffers to find as many people named Dan Sullivan in Alaska as possible.
The staffer complied, going through voter records, and compiled a list. The operation “involved secret trips to far-flung Alaskan communities and the appearance of a mysterious Midwestern operative, who traversed the state using a fake name and made his pitch to would-be candidates over beers at brew pubs.”
Per NYT:
“The plan worked. This spring, a retired teacher from a tiny fishing village along the Alaska Panhandle, reachable only by air and sea, announced his candidacy for Senate. His name was Dan J. Sullivan.”
nytimes.com/2026/10/28/us/po…
BTCVIX retweeted
If I were a Democrat, I would be concerned that a Blue Tsunami might not happen.
BTCVIX retweeted
First of all, why not focus on condemning the campaign for obviously unethical actions. It's simply not right to deliberately recruit someone who has the same name as the incumbent to act as a spoiler, regardless of how effective it would be.
But here's the reason why they do it: it helps them with polling, which helps them with the narrative and the prediction markets and the forecasts and everything else. Creates the feeling that Peltola is going to win, which helps with her fundraising as well.
Not all respondents take polls seriously, so they're not going to go to trouble of choosing the right Dan Sullivan or ranking the other one second. There's a lot of vote exhaustion in ranked choice voting polls (just look at how great it is in the gubernatorial race), and in this case, it's helping the Democrats. That's why they do it.
I'm of the view that the ranked-choice process means any confusion over the two Dan Sullivans won't be significant because most supporters will rank them 1-2 and the order doesn't matter. But you do have to wonder why the Peltola campaign appears to have put so much effort into creating this situation.
@Nedfoley @derektmuller @rickhasen
BTCVIX retweeted
A Bitcoin treasury company (@Datavault_ai $DVLT) just crashed because they informed investors that they haven't been able to withdraw BTC from the exchange (@BiconomyCom) that is holding all their treasury funds after 4 months of transfer requests.
BTCVIX retweeted
“Now we’re spending a lot of time in how to make Robinhood Chain even bigger, how to support the community, we know we’ve been hearing from a lot of builders that we could be doing more to support the community, and I think you should expect us to really ramp that up.” - @vladtenev on Robinhood Chain
Hmm… Thinking it’s obvious everyone should be more bullish 🤔
BTCVIX retweeted
Bitcoin is 119 days off the June 30 bottom ($58.5K).
At day 119 in past cycles, the next ATH was still:
2015: 652 days away
2018: 597 days away
2022: 350 days away
Each cycle cut the wait by an average of ~27%.
Do it again → ~256 days.
That's a new ATH around July 2027.
The bottom is the easy part. The wait is the hard part.
BTCVIX retweeted
Bitcoin has historically bounced back after every US midterm election cycle.
Could history repeat itself in the next cycle? Traders will be watching closely for another potential recovery.
BTCVIX retweeted
32 thousand people in attendance to watch the game on the jumbotron. I love Milwaukee!
BTCVIX retweeted
I don't read individual numbers on the footprint.
Look at the cluster shading at highs and lows. Was there a lot of buying or selling there?
Lots of buying at a high, lots of selling at a low. That's what I want to see.
Selling at a high or buying at a low is what I DON'T want to see.
Watch for ZONES of new positioning (multiple clusters), not single ticks 🫡
BTCVIX retweeted
If accurate (always a big if), just looks like mutually high turnout to me. Dems running between 2024 and 2022. They should run better than 2022 in the early vote just because of the environment; doesn’t mean E-day will be like 2024 in a midterm.
GOP running above 2022, which looks great considering they have a huge e-day reserve from 2024.
BTCVIX retweeted
the number of bets you need depends on your price and your edge, not a round number like 1,000. a 4% edge at -110 needs about 2,260 bets before expected profit sits 2 standard errors above zero. at +300 it needs about 7,700. a 2% edge at -110 needs about 9,070.
price sets the noise on every bet, and the edge is squared in the formula, so halving your edge takes about 4x the bets.
