Banff retweeted
Bitcoin ripped to $87k and this trader shorted $7m of it at 40x
he's now up $811.8k on that one trade
here's how it went:
aug 31: opens a 1 btc short at $77.5k
sep 2: grows it to 22 btc while bitcoin chops sideways
sep 21: bitcoin rips to $87k. he adds ~59 btc short into the pump
oct 11: his account is down $405k in 3 days. he adds 5 btc more
nov 5: bitcoin at $76k. he takes 19 btc off for +$144,692
now: still short 73 btc ($5.5m)
+$575k open, +$142k closed and longs paid him $94k in funding while he waited
he's #6 on entropy's leaderboard right now
would you have held through oct 11?
Someone wired $27.5m into hyperliquid in 11 days
to short anthropic before its ipo
> jul 9: deposits $2m, then does nothing for months
> sep 21: opens a tiny $67k anthropic short on entropy
> oct 26: the money starts. $7m. $1m. $2m. $8m. $4.5m. $5m
> nov 4: anthropic rips to a $1.93t valuation. he adds ~$10m more short into the pump
> nov 5: it dumps to $1.61t
he's now short $40.1m, 29% of the whole market entropy just took past $100m
up $3.42m, and longs paid him another $215k in funding
the biggest long on the other side? the falcon i tracked before. $14m long, down ~$2.3m
the ipo is reportedly weeks away. one of them is about to be very right
tiger or falcon?
Banff retweeted
Anthropic lists in about 3 weeks. if you want in before that, there are two real places to trade it on hyperliquid
i pulled the numbers on both
78% of all anthropic open interest sits on @entropyIO: $57m, vs $16m on trade.xyz
here's why i think the money ends up there:
> the price is the valuation. 1,880 on entropy means $1.88T, the same number the ipo headlines use. no share-count math
> the spread was 0.5 bps vs 4.2 bps when i checked, so you lose less on every entry and exit
> up to 15x leverage vs 10x
> more volume too: $11.6m vs $8.8m in the last 24h
it's also where the action is. the $13.7m whale and the 15 shorts betting against him that i've been tracking all trade anthropic on entropy
if you want to watch the ipo get priced in real time, this is the market:
entropy.io/trade/io:ANTH?r=b…
Banff retweeted
you can't buy anthropic stock
people trade it anyway, 24/7
wall street's last price: $965B
the crowd's price right now: $1.89T
same company. 1.96x apart.
first it was a private funding round
then it got listed on a crypto exchange
now $40m+ is riding on it with zero public shares in existence
and today the crowd got nervous
~$45B wiped off anthropic since midnight
anthropic never asked for this market
it prices them anyway
how it works:
on entropy, $ANTH is quoted in billions of valuation
$1,894 on the chart = the crowd thinks anthropic is worth $1.89T
and the crowd doesn't get to be wrong forever
the ipo is the settlement
the day anthropic lists, this price has to meet the real one
lists at $1.5T -> everyone long here was paying for a story
lists at $2.5T -> everyone short fought the biggest ipo of the cycle
one of them is wrong
you can pick a side today. no broker, just a crypto wallet
50% of your trading fees back through my link:
entropy.io/?r=banff_eth
Banff retweeted
a 20-year-old put $1,000 on Trump saying two specific words on live TV. it paid $95,000
one question: will he say "fake news" this week?
here's the part most people miss:
he wasn't gambling. he was pricing a habit
"Trump says fake news" sounds random if you've never listened to him speak. if you have, it's closer to betting the sun comes up. the market priced a personality trait like it was a coin flip
that's the whole edge -> the crowd prices things by how silly they sound, not by how likely they are
the clip is the best part. he buys it, then can't sit still. pacing outside, checking the stream, staring at the podium. Trump opens his mouth, says it, and the kid comes off the couch
and that exact market runs every single week
the one for August 3-9 is live right now and closes Saturday:
-> "no no no" -> 95%, the crowd treats it as already done
-> "moon" -> 29c
-> "six seven" -> 18c
-> "stupid question" -> 14c
-> "epic fury" -> 13c
-> "karoline" -> 13c
the cheap ones at the bottom are where that edge lives. sometimes the crowd is right and they're genuinely unlikely. sometimes it just prices them low because they sound stupid, and that gap is the entire game
live board here: polymarket.com?via=banff
save this. the biggest edges hide inside the trades everyone else laughs at
Banff retweeted
a piano holds 18 tons of string tension. guitar strings snap at 90 kilos
he put guitar strings on a piano anyway
the numbers said it couldn't work, and he listed the reasons before he started:
210 strings to buy. a professional tuner charges around $20 per string, so he was about to do $4,000 of labour by hand, having barely ever restrung his own guitar
the strings are too short for a piano, so he had to tie them together end to end
and not one guitar tuning peg fits a piano. it took him days of searching to find something that would
then he started threading. thinnest guitar string in the spot where the thinnest piano string sits, next one after that, no measurements, no math, just feel
he ran out of strings partway through, because tying them together ate more length than he calculated
but the tied ones rang clean. that was the moment it stopped being a joke
then he tuned all of it the only way he knows how -> a phone app and a guitar pick, string by string, on an instrument built to hold the weight of a small truck
and it played Wonderwall
that's the whole format. no plot, no twist, just a number that says impossible and a guy who does it anyway
save this. a piano that should have torn itself apart played the most overplayed song on earth
unrelated, but worth a read if you're into prediction markets, fresh piece from Boba:






