Banff (@Banff_eth) header
Banff (@Banff_eth) profile picture

tracking what the crowd misprices

Joined July 2026
Banff retweeted
Bitcoin ripped to $87k and this trader shorted $7m of it at 40x he's now up $811.8k on that one trade here's how it went: aug 31: opens a 1 btc short at $77.5k sep 2: grows it to 22 btc while bitcoin chops sideways sep 21: bitcoin rips to $87k. he adds ~59 btc short into the pump oct 11: his account is down $405k in 3 days. he adds 5 btc more nov 5: bitcoin at $76k. he takes 19 btc off for +$144,692 now: still short 73 btc ($5.5m) +$575k open, +$142k closed and longs paid him $94k in funding while he waited he's #6 on entropy's leaderboard right now would you have held through oct 11?
Someone wired $27.5m into hyperliquid in 11 days to short anthropic before its ipo > jul 9: deposits $2m, then does nothing for months > sep 21: opens a tiny $67k anthropic short on entropy > oct 26: the money starts. $7m. $1m. $2m. $8m. $4.5m. $5m > nov 4: anthropic rips to a $1.93t valuation. he adds ~$10m more short into the pump > nov 5: it dumps to $1.61t he's now short $40.1m, 29% of the whole market entropy just took past $100m up $3.42m, and longs paid him another $215k in funding the biggest long on the other side? the falcon i tracked before. $14m long, down ~$2.3m the ipo is reportedly weeks away. one of them is about to be very right tiger or falcon?
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Banff retweeted
Anthropic lists in about 3 weeks. if you want in before that, there are two real places to trade it on hyperliquid i pulled the numbers on both 78% of all anthropic open interest sits on @entropyIO: $57m, vs $16m on trade.xyz here's why i think the money ends up there: > the price is the valuation. 1,880 on entropy means $1.88T, the same number the ipo headlines use. no share-count math > the spread was 0.5 bps vs 4.2 bps when i checked, so you lose less on every entry and exit > up to 15x leverage vs 10x > more volume too: $11.6m vs $8.8m in the last 24h it's also where the action is. the $13.7m whale and the 15 shorts betting against him that i've been tracking all trade anthropic on entropy if you want to watch the ipo get priced in real time, this is the market: entropy.io/trade/io:ANTH?r=b…
$ANTH max leverage has been increased to 12x.
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Banff retweeted
you can't buy anthropic stock people trade it anyway, 24/7 wall street's last price: $965B the crowd's price right now: $1.89T same company. 1.96x apart. first it was a private funding round then it got listed on a crypto exchange now $40m+ is riding on it with zero public shares in existence and today the crowd got nervous ~$45B wiped off anthropic since midnight anthropic never asked for this market it prices them anyway how it works: on entropy, $ANTH is quoted in billions of valuation $1,894 on the chart = the crowd thinks anthropic is worth $1.89T and the crowd doesn't get to be wrong forever the ipo is the settlement the day anthropic lists, this price has to meet the real one lists at $1.5T -> everyone long here was paying for a story lists at $2.5T -> everyone short fought the biggest ipo of the cycle one of them is wrong you can pick a side today. no broker, just a crypto wallet 50% of your trading fees back through my link: entropy.io/?r=banff_eth
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Banff retweeted
a 20-year-old put $1,000 on Trump saying two specific words on live TV. it paid $95,000 one question: will he say "fake news" this week? here's the part most people miss: he wasn't gambling. he was pricing a habit "Trump says fake news" sounds random if you've never listened to him speak. if you have, it's closer to betting the sun comes up. the market priced a personality trait like it was a coin flip that's the whole edge -> the crowd prices things by how silly they sound, not by how likely they are the clip is the best part. he buys it, then can't sit still. pacing outside, checking the stream, staring at the podium. Trump opens his mouth, says it, and the kid comes off the couch and that exact market runs every single week the one for August 3-9 is live right now and closes Saturday: -> "no no no" -> 95%, the crowd treats it as already done -> "moon" -> 29c -> "six seven" -> 18c -> "stupid question" -> 14c -> "epic fury" -> 13c -> "karoline" -> 13c the cheap ones at the bottom are where that edge lives. sometimes the crowd is right and they're genuinely unlikely. sometimes it just prices them low because they sound stupid, and that gap is the entire game live board here: polymarket.com?via=banff save this. the biggest edges hide inside the trades everyone else laughs at
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Banff retweeted
a piano holds 18 tons of string tension. guitar strings snap at 90 kilos he put guitar strings on a piano anyway the numbers said it couldn't work, and he listed the reasons before he started: 210 strings to buy. a professional tuner charges around $20 per string, so he was about to do $4,000 of labour by hand, having barely ever restrung his own guitar the strings are too short for a piano, so he had to tie them together end to end and not one guitar tuning peg fits a piano. it took him days of searching to find something that would then he started threading. thinnest guitar string in the spot where the thinnest piano string sits, next one after that, no measurements, no math, just feel he ran out of strings partway through, because tying them together ate more length than he calculated but the tied ones rang clean. that was the moment it stopped being a joke then he tuned all of it the only way he knows how -> a phone app and a guitar pick, string by string, on an instrument built to hold the weight of a small truck and it played Wonderwall that's the whole format. no plot, no twist, just a number that says impossible and a guy who does it anyway save this. a piano that should have torn itself apart played the most overplayed song on earth unrelated, but worth a read if you're into prediction markets, fresh piece from Boba:
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