Have I gone a little overboard with the World Series analysis? Probably. 😂 Park-adjusted HRs, ISO rankings, regression models, Monte Carlo simulations... Ridiculous? Maybe. But hey, IT'S THE WORLD SERIES! ⚾ 3 final Basewinner value plays: 🍺 MIL Series ML -165 (DK) ⚾ Over 9.5 Series HR -150 (Caesars) 💣 Victor Mesa Jr. 2+ HR +400 (Heritage) If you appreciate this level of baseball analytics obsession, give me a follow! Much love…BW basewinner.com/posts/2026-wo…

That would be a cool prop - I'm thinking more like 25-1. These props are great @ericbiggio and the pricing is good. My calcs say over 10.5 most combined runs in any game -130 and over 9.5 HRs in series -110

🛒⚾ Some pretty interesting data from the BWDB on how teams hit in what I call "Costco Parks" (closed-roof/dome stadiums). So interesting, in fact, that I thought it was worth digging into and writing about, especially with the LCS underway. Not exactly great for our LAD and CLE positions, but another interesting piece of the handicapping puzzle! basewinner.com/posts/the-cos… #Dodgers #Guardians #MLBPlayoffs #Basewinner

We rebuilt our October pitching model. bwERA+ → postseason sxIP → bullpen exposure → team RA/G → series probabilities → 100,000 postseason simulations. Then we priced the DraftKings postseason board. A few differences jumped out: CLE over CWS series BW: 64.97% / -185 fair DK: -140 NYY over TB series BW: 58.71% / -142 fair DK: -120 LAD World Series BW: 39.36% / +154 fair DK: +200 We can even price exact LCS outcomes now. The final probabilities look clean. Building everything behind them definitely isn't. Full breakdown 👇 basewinner.com/posts/we-rebu…

Come on Phillies fans - Let's get some "Jesus Saves" signs. A save situation may not happen though? the way Phillies lineup of late, may need actual Jesus to hit.

This is a great post Corbie! I can cherry pick the West Coast Tv games if i want to make a play as a casual CFF bettor. Thanks for sharing

Interesting- i do see somewhat of a resemblance brings up a ? - if Drew is curious as to what Gill thinks of his play, does he ask Gill "do you feel like I do?"🎸

That's great stuff Greg! I liked when you ran through Southpoint. I do more interval stuff so i could chime in during my 200m interval rests. Would be comical as I go xFIP splits and BB/K as I'm gasping for air😆

Talked about the September Most Wins market on the show today — here are the numbers. ⚾ LAD leads the Basewinner model at 30.3% 📈 PHI 13.8% vs +1200 DK 📈 CLE 11.2% vs +1400 DK After August, I’m especially interested to see if DK brings back the monthly division markets. I think there may be even more value there. Full September 2 simulation 👇 basewinner.com/posts/septemb…

I'm up for that!

🚨 A first look at the new Basewinner MLB Simulation Center. We went back to our August 5 MLB Division Value Board to see what's happened — and more importantly, what the Monte Carlo simulations see now. ⚾ 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations 📊 Current August records 🎯 Basewinner fair odds 💰 DraftKings prices 📈 Model vs. market edges 🔮 Projected win distributions The Phillies have gone from our favorite NL East play at -110 to 12-5 with an 89.1% simulation probability. But this isn't a victory lap. It's a first look at the tool we've been building to track the models as the games are actually played. basewinner.com/posts/august-…

📊 NEW: August Division Winner Value Board Throughout July we had a lot of fun breaking down the Most Regular Season Wins market with 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations. As that project progressed, I kept coming back to another market DraftKings had posted: Monthly Division Winners. I was tempted to extrapolate from the monthly win probabilities... But those are two different questions that deserve two different simulations. So I coded it up. After rebuilding the latest Basewinner component ratings, I added a Division Winner module to the simulation engine and simulated the entire August schedule 2,000 times. A few teams immediately stood out: ⭐ Phillies (+190) ⭐ Brewers (+245) 👀 Blue Jays (+450) (trade deadline watch) ⭐ Athletics (+500) 🚫 Rangers (+135) The trade deadline is almost here, so this is the pre-deadline board. Once the dust settles, I'll rebuild the ratings, rerun the simulations, and see what changed. 🎤 Built Models. Real Edges. Read the full article: basewinner.com/posts/august-…

What if the numbers voted? Introducing the inaugural 2026 Basewinner First Team: Offense ⚾ Built using BW Runs v2, our proprietary offensive rating emphasizing: ✅ K% ✅ ISO Power ✅ Park-adjusted performance Some picks were obvious. Some weren't. And yes... Romy is my Homie. 😂 🐶 Doghouse Rating: 🦴🦴🦴🦴🦴 Read the full First Team here: basewinner.com/posts/the-202… Tomorrow: The Basewinner First Team Starting Pitchers. 👀

📊 July Most Wins Market Update — All-Star Break Edition The market has changed dramatically over the last two weeks. After updating July records through July 13 and re-running 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, here's what stood out: ✅ Boston is still the most likely team to finish July with the most wins... but I think the market has fully caught up. ⭐ The Twins and Orioles still offer outstanding value. 💣 This week's Basewinner Bomb is paying +4500. A tip of the cap to @beatingthebook and Gill Alexander—his July Red Sox selection on A Numbers Game has aged beautifully. 👏 Check out the updated probabilities, fair odds, and where I still see value: basewinner.com/posts/july-mo… Built Models. Real Edges. 📊⚾

i just posted this for HR Derby Read the full breakdown at: basewinner.com/posts/2026-ho…

⚾ Every July I take on a fun little baseball research project. The question this year: If the Home Run Derby isn't played like a normal baseball game, why would I handicap it like one? I analyzed 3 years of Statcast data vs. offspeed pitches, focusing on HR per Ball in Play (HR/BIP) and Launch Speed, then built a three-player Dutch betting portfolio. Since 2019, that portfolio has included the eventual Derby champion in 5 of the last 6 years. Whether it cashes tonight or not, I love this approach—and hopefully you'll enjoy the research too. Read the full breakdown at: basewinner.com/posts/2026-ho…

📈 July Most Wins Market Update (July 7) One week into July, I re-ran 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations using updated team ratings, current records, and the remaining schedule. A few things stood out: ✅ Dodgers remain the team to beat. ⭐ Twins have become one of the biggest value plays. 👀 My model and the betting market couldn't disagree more on one of the favorites. Updated probabilities, fair odds, and my favorite plays: basewinner.com/posts/july-mo… Built Models. Real Edges. 📊⚾

Who finishes July with the most wins? 🤔 I built proprietary team ratings (Starting Pitching • Bullpen • Offense • Defense), projected every remaining game, and ran 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations to estimate each team's true probability today. The result? ✅ Value on a few favorites. ⭐ A 100-1 longshot that jumped off the page. 💣 A handful of bombs with intriguing upside. Check out the full methodology, fair odds, and my July plays: July's Most Wins Market: Finding Value Through 2,000 Simulations P.S. Stick around until the end... Basewinner Barker might make an appearance. 🎤😎