GOLD fundamentals in 1 picture, still bearish

Every FX trade you have ever taken exists because of a decision made in August 1971 Before that, the main currencies of the world were tied together and barely moved, so for a currency trader there was almost nothing to trade After it, they started floating, and the market you trade today was born It was a Sunday night., in Washington Markets are closed Nixon goes live on national television He announces the US was "temporarily" severing the Dollar's tie to GOLD (sure! It's been "temporarily" for over 50 years) With that, currency prices were now decided second by second by buyers, sellers, central banks, and human emotion

Warsh said he was “hard pressed” to call policy restrictive on September 16 In FED language, that means rates weren't tight enough yet despite the hike Since then... 1. OIL has been climbing higher 2. inflation has surprised to the upside Your call now, should the FED hike this week?

All of Warsh FOMC meetings have set a fresh trend for the Dollar

OIL is up GOLD is down And that’s NOT a coincidence When OIL climbs, inflation expectations climb, when inflation expectations climb, central banks lean toward higher rates, and higher rates pull GOLD lower

Positive surprise for the EUR here Likely to gap a little higher next week (short term bullish EUR and GBP, bearish CHF)

Seriuously

Is this the right time to FINALLY long GOLD?! Ehhh... besomebodyfx.substack.com/p/…

Still Not Buying The Dip

Settle Ukraine so you can tame the energy crisis to then go mad on Iran (post mid terms) with more leverage, art of the deal

Carry trades are the best performers of the year What's a "carry trade"? Longing a high interest currency vs a low interest one For instance, AUD, USD, NOK vs CHF, JPY

We are long GBPCHF 1. Unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% (from 4.9%) 2. Wages (ex bonuses) accelerated to 3.7% (from 3.5%) 3. Services CPI jumped to 3.7% (from 3.4%) Simply, all hawkish for the Bank of England which will have to hike at their next meeting and keep more hikes on the table as well Target 1.12

OIL at 110 by the FOMC meeting next week will be fun

Ehhh you sure?! Patience will run out quick when OIL gets to 110

The Dollar fell after a hot CPI and everyone’s calling the top Ehhh I wouldn’t be so sure about it...

The FED can ignore OIL spikes… until it suddenly can't Central banks don't set rates on energy prices If they did, they'd flip flop between hikes and cuts every time OIL moved But when high OIL prices STAY high: → they leak into the broader economy → people start expecting higher inflation → inflation gets entrenched That's what the FED fears most And that's when it stops looking through