Benjamin Filter, MdL

Germany Explores Stealing Properties from Landlords in Berlin and Paying them Below Market Prices, Bonds Crater (this is the end of Berlin as we know it) EUROPE IS DOOMED BEYOND BELIEF IF THIS PASSES On Saturday Die Linke (German Left Party), Greens and SPD in Berlin presented the exploratory paper underpinning their coalition agreement. It envisages socialising, under Art. 15 of the German constitution (GG), private landlords' Berlin stock above 10k units per company. On documented counts that is ~152k units: Vonovia 128k, Heimstaden 10k, Adler 7.4k, Covivio 7k. Compensation is capped at €16bn, about €105k per unit or 58% of book on a pro rata basis, and even the cap is conditional on fiscal sustainability, i.e. it can fall if financing conditions worsen. The paper commits only to a 2027 financing concept; whether that means cash or 100-year bond compensation is left open. The bill reaches the Berlin parliament in mid-2028 and takes effect for transfers one year after promulgation, so mid-2029 at the earliest. - Adler exposure: Adler has got 7.4k units above the 10k unit cap, ie its yielding portfolio is exposed by ~43%. At the cap Adler would receive €105k per unit on a flat split or closer to €115k pro rata to book, i.e. €777m to €860m against €1.49bn of book - a 42% to 48% discount to book. The implied GRI yield/cap rate at the cap is ~7.0%. - Heimstaden exposure: Heimstaden has more than 20k units in Berlin so ~10k units above the 10k allowance are exposed. That's 6% of group total. By value the exposed share will be a tad higher given the German book has higher values per unit vs group. Beyond Art. 15, the exploratory paper explicitly names Adler's Steglitzer Kreisel as its example of a "speculative construction ruin" (Bauspekulations-Ruine): it will sanction inactivity on such sites, expects completion "often only after insolvency proceedings", and will use "transfer of ownership" (Eigentumsübertragung). Moreover, a rent regulator (Mietenaufsicht) starts in 2027, handling rent overcharging (§ 5 WiStG, rents more than 20% above the local reference rent) and running a rent and housing register from 2028, with a new rent-usury (Mietwucher) unit at the public prosecutor's office alongside it. gruene.berlin/fileadmin/user…