...remember there's a multibillion dollar industry based on keeping you in a perpetual state of stupidity, rage, resentment, and paranoia - david burge
Joined May 2015
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We agree to try strength by counting heads instead of breaking heads, but the principle is exactly the same... The minority gives way not because it is convinced that it is wrong, but because it is convinced that it is a minority.
- James Fitzjames Stephen
“That means” - it doesn’t mean any such thing
That involves an assumption that values are commensurable which is a proposition that some people explicitly deny
To be clear, not everyone agrees that it’s possible to compare two good things and say which one is better, let alone assign a ratio to them, and they certainly don’t agree that doing good things can be offset against doing bad things
If someone chooses to preserve art or architecture rather than give money to save children from malaria, this does not necessarily mean they think the first of them is better than the other,
people have free will, and they might readily admit it would be better to spend the money on malaria and still choose to spend it on the opera
Utility functions are fake, they don’t exist, people do not have them,
people don’t even have well ordered preferences, let alone preferences that can be assigned to an affine space
If Dario had just said that he vibes more with Stop TB because saving adults feels better knowing he’s helping people who are already in rich, complex lives, no one would’ve objected. It was the putting numbers to arbitrary moral weights that rankled people. But what EA points out, which to people with a mathematical way of viewing the world may seem like it doesn’t need saying, is that if you donate to a charity in the US that saves 1 life for every $1 million, that means you vibe with saving an American life 250x as much as saving a life from Malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. Or if you donate to the opera, that means that improving opera quality by 5% gives you about the same good vibes as saving 180 lives from malaria. Which must be true for some people—at least in economics, we have the idea of revealed preference that says this must be true for opera donors. But most people’s vibes or moral weights look absolutely galling when phrased that way, far far more galling than Dario’s comparison between the neediest adults and the neediest children sounds. Hence, I think resisting mathematizing things in this way allows people to dodge the guilt from seeing their moral weights reflected back to them.
xitter.gq/TaylorLorenz/status/21…
The way governments spend money is a negotiated compromise that doesn’t necessarily please anybody
Just because people grudgingly accept healthcare being allocated in a particular way, doesn’t mean they think they should live their own lives in that way or want to deal with people who do
To make the obvious point, they want the government to treat people equally and in a neutral manner, but that does absolutely not mean that they think they shouldn’t prefer their own children over other people
Most people are just not utilitarians
Of all the threads you wouldn't expect to blow up, there's this one.
I really wonder what the people opposed to this sort of reasoning think about healthcare allocation, which is abstract, mathematical, and philosophical?
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Ben Liddicott retweeted
Reality, that brutal thing, is this. Beginning almost immediately, all those border enforcement provisions were either ignored or fought against actively via lawfare. The amnesty part though? That was implemented right quick, now, wasn't it?
Ben Liddicott retweeted
.@POTUS: "I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up... At the same time, if I had to do it again, I'd have to do it again because long-term, it's the only answer. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon."
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Global thermonuclear war, likely worst-case scenario
Probably one third to two-thirds of the global population will die
Technology will be pushed back to the 1970s. No internet, no mobile phones, but still have 5-axis machine shops and semiconductors, and wired telephones
A disaster worse than the black death, which killed half the population of europe
But it wouldn't end humanity, or even civilisation.
I'd probably die, (which I don't want to happen) and so would my children (which I definitely don't want to happen). But it's literally impossible to wipe out humanity, or destroy civilisation using he nuclear weapons possessed by current nuclear states.
So that's something.
Ben Liddicott retweeted
Feels bad man I'm in England.
They say America sneezes and Europe catches cold
but I was really hoping America would get well this time around
Watching election 2025 and NBC saying races where "AP has not issued a race call"
OK I think the Associated Press don't actually decide who wins
how about you wait to see who actually wins, remember "Dewey Defeats Truman"
have some humility.
Classic joke! One better than the Cretan Liar.
freud somewhat famously collected jokes. he thought they illuminated something about the subconscious mind. he also probably thought they were just funny.
supposedly his favorite joke was about two men at a train station:
one man, mr. cohen, sees the other at the train station, mr. katz, and thinks, "that guy is such a scoundrel. i'll see where he's going".
so he goes up to him and asks, "hey, where are you going today?" - and mr. katz says: berlin.
and mr. cohen says: "ah ha! i know you're really going to berlin - but you know that i know that you're a liar. so you know that if you tell me you're going to berlin, i'll think it's a lie, and i'll think you're going to linz. but you're not going to linz. you're going to berlin. so, why don't you just tell me the truth?". (end)
after looking into this i learned that "people seeing each other at a train station" was an entire joke subgenre for people in this part of europe at this time. i suspect this is because it allows people to just be in a kind of blank slate liminal environment, and you can also play with logic, because people are all going different places. my personal favorite of that genre ended up being this one:
a man is sitting on a train leaving the jewish section of the city. he sees another man get on the train and sit a few seats in front of him. he thinks "wait, i'm the only jewish person cleared by the authorities to leave the city. so, this guy has to work for the state himself. there's only two jews that work for the state here - and i've never met them. mr. cofax and mr. levi.
but, they'd still need special permission to cross the border... and i'm crossing the border. i know i'm the only one with that permission. well, there's two stops as we head north towards the border. they have to be getting off at one of those. i'm not sure where mr. cofax's family lives... but my son met them once, and mentioned they own a large boat. well, they can't live in the north then.
mr. levi's family might live north of here. but who would he be seeing? he has three daughters. two are already married - one to an anthropologist and one to a doctor. well, he could be attending the wedding of the third daughter.
last i heard, she works as a secretary. well, as a secretary she would be in a position to meet a government official. that must be who she's marrying. well, that explains how mr. levi got clearance unofficially to leave the city - he's attending the wedding of his daughter, and she's marrying a man that can unofficially give clearance to another employee of the state."
so, he goes up to the man and says, "mr. levi?". mr. levi, surprised, says, "uh... yes. how did you know that?" and the man says, "it's simple". (end)
ultimately i think freud was correct that certain jokes seem to highlight and illumine things about the psyche or something hidden about our interactions as people. this gave me a totally different lens on old or cliche jokes - which may not be modern comedy material, but can still be otherwise interesting. one of my favorite joke that does something like this, expanding out of the train station genre, which you may have heard before, is this one:
there's a woman on death row. the warden comes into her cell and says, "you're being executed tomorrow. you do get a last meal - what do you want?".
and she says, "i don't know... what do you want?"
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I’ve lived in England all my life, tipping is completely normal, even since my mother was a little girl
Unpopular opinion: Tipping culture is creeping into the UK and it needs stopping now. 🙅♂️💷
Look at our neighbours:
🇫🇷 France: service is included in the bill by law. A few coins if it was great.
🇩🇪 Germany: round up to the nearest euro or two. Done.
🇮🇹 Italy: tipping isn't expected at all.
🇩🇰🇳🇴🇸🇪 Scandinavia: staff are paid properly, so nobody expects a tip.
Meanwhile in Britain, a card machine asks me for 15% at a self-service counter where I poured my own coffee. ☕
Pay staff properly. Put the real price on the menu.
Stop making customers top up wages!
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Ben Liddicott retweeted
I made some plots to help visualize why coalition formation in Israel is so difficult right now
We are witnessing an extremely rare situation that political scientists call a "Condorcet cycle" - a demonstration of Arrow's impossibility theorem in the wild!
If someone not a citizen has a removal order we should:
* Remove them
* Do Nothing
@jessesingal says "do nothing".
Very rule of law.
Much "the law applies to everyone".
Someone who is not a citizen is in the country with a removal order, and they are working and raising a family and haven't committed any crimes unrelated to their immigration status. What should we do?
Nothing. We should do nothing.
jessesingal.substack.com/p/y…
> "Haven't committed any crimes unrelated to their immigration status"
Does using someone else's SSN to get employment count? That's fraud.
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Discretion is a good and necessary thing, but it's not a permanent pass.
If the officer overlooks your taillight once, that's a good thing, but it's an opportunity to fix your taillight, ideally in the next couple of days, not a license to drive without a taillight forever.
If the officer overlooks your speeding once, that's a warning to be more careful, it doesn't give you the right to break the speed limit forever.
If immigration overlook you being unlawfully in the country once, that's an opportunity to either apply for lawful status, or to leave. It doesn't give you the right to stay.
If you're given an final order of removal, that's you being told to leave.
If that's not enforced, that's you being given an opportunity to leave of your own accord, rather than being handcuffed and removed with no further notice.
It doesn't give you the right to stay.
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Ben Liddicott retweeted
I’m no Knuth but suspect P equals NP, where the polynomial solution of the NP problem is made out of an annoyingly large number of special cases
Ben Liddicott retweeted
LEVELS OF POLITICAL CORRUPTION IN BRAZIL “ARE LIKE SOMETHING YOU WOULD SEE IN BRAZIL”
Experts are warning that new attacks on political opponents in Brazil are signs Brazil “may be becoming another Brazil” where “Brazil-like” levels of political corruption could be commonplace
