Ben | No Proof No Trade

If you are wondering why $NVDA stopped at 181.30 on Thursday and rebounded. 2 Possible reasons: 1- Gap fill back from April 2- Dark Pool zone of 181 (567B) I have provided more information in this video discussing positive and negative points about this stock. #NVIDIA #SEMI

Reports of a possible leadership change at $NVDA: does that change your long-term view, or is it noise for a company this size?

Unpopular opinion: Europe at a record doesn't mean the AI trade is fine. $NVDA is softer pre-market on reports its board may be weighing a leadership change. Governance headlines are a different kind of risk from an earnings miss, and much harder to model.

Fundamental analysis and prediction techniques cheat sheet - Pentagon pizza 🍕order increase -> increase oil prices 🛢️ - CEO condom order increase -> reduce share price

The 0.7% UK GDP print matched forecasts, and the immediate sterling reaction was muted. Are you treating this as a genuine acceleration, or as already priced in?

UK Q3 GDP +0.7% (ONS), in line with forecasts and 1.9% higher than a year ago. September added 0.2%, while August was revised down to flat. The detail matters more than the headline. Services, about 80% of UK output, grew 0.9%. Construction fell 0.7%. This is still a consumer- and services-led recovery, not an investment-led one. That's good for growth but awkward for the BoE. Services is where UK inflation has been stickiest, so a strong services quarter makes it harder to argue that price pressure is fading. For markets, I'd watch services PMIs and wage data more than this print.

Are you treating today as a reset in the AI names, or just a one-day bounce?

A bounce after a guidance raise is easy to treat as the new trend. I'd still ask: did the thesis change, or did the multiple just snap back? For $CRWV, the FY 2026 guide is $13.0-$13.3bn. That's the fact. The trend has to prove itself in the next few sessions.

The follow-through test is tomorrow, not the last tick tonight. $NBIS reports before the open, then jobless claims at 13:30. A one-day bounce in $CRWV still has to get through that.

That's the US close. How did your day go? Anything you'd do differently?

What's the one thing you're actually watching tomorrow morning?

A call wall on the chart is not a price target. I'd only use an options level if I can see the open interest myself and have a cash-session falsifier if it doesn't hold.

Tomorrow: UK GDP at 07:00, $NBIS before the US open, jobless claims at 13:30, and PPI is Friday, not tomorrow. I'd map the week before reacting to the first print.

Unpopular opinion: a strong index tape doesn't mean much if you haven't checked breadth. If $QQQ is up and most stocks aren't, it's a leadership bounce, not a broad one. I'd rather know how many names participated than just the headline.

Do you trust a bounce more if it holds into the close, or if it looks good at lunch?

$NBIS bulls, the candle I’m pointing at, are sellers that previously smashed the price. Plenty of previous bulls are trapped in there. Expect some rejection from the area.

The last hour can undo a good morning. Into the close, I'd rather see the bid in $CRWV and $NVDA hold than a last-minute spike that fades in after-hours.

Which name are you more focused on into the rest of the US session: $NVDA, $CRWV or $NBIS?

Hot take: tomorrow's $NBIS print could tell you more about the AI build-out than another week of Nvidia headlines. If Nebius shows demand funding the spend, the neocloud bid has legs. If not, CoreWeave's guide-raise won't save the group.

I don’t look at my portfolio on super bullish days. What about you?