Slevin

There is no such thing as an expert of the future, no matter the underlying knowledge about a specific technology Complex dynamic systems are inherently unpredictable and creative Stop believing arrogant and senseless predictions No one know what will happen

Cheer for all the short time that is left

Last and done

Warsh facing criticism for doing exactly what he said he was going to do. Optimistic about the framework. Let the market discover prices and allocate capital accordingly. Relying on its self-clearing feedback loop is what ultimately bring prosperity over the long-term

PnL cards everywhere around...

Not too far but still too early Regime hard to break with interchangeable narratives available Whether resilience or complacency do not matter The signal is not immediate and the balance is not shifted yet

Spending is dictated by wealth effect and individual employment What ultimately matter is money availability, not feeling about the economy And marginal changes do not affect the aggregate

Absent a further escalation, inflation is not as bad as it seem even if the structural shift remain Other dynamics deserve consideration

A capital rotation following a price consolidation That is the hopeful scenario

Entire premise of bearish AI is the tech will break labor/no productivity increase/investment unjustified Entire premise of bullish AI is the tech will make everyone a winner/no excesses/perfect timing with expectations Make it make sense

It's not present conditions that are discounted Wake up

Nothingburger The surprise effect is gone and adaptation is in

When everyone is short (long) and the market fall (rise), tweets "everyone in the same position what you expect" When everyone is short/long and the market squeeze, tweets "everyone in the same position what you expect"

While many are taking a recession as certain and pointing at data for confirmation, the reality is that data only validate a slowing/normalization after the post-pandemic boom. In other words, the economy is softening, not falling. There's a huge difference between the two.

The effects of changes in interest rates are not mechanical nor automatic It all depends on the context present both from an economic, market, and sentiment point of view

Securing and preserving optionality is a blessing during uncertain times The difficulty lie in thinking about it when least needed

Slow bleeds are devastating but inefficient from a structure point of view Lot of fuel for a reversal if buyers show up But volatility is needed

Don't really get why there is so much anxiety about inflation as of now The battle is bumpy at the last mile never linear as diminishing returns hit and structural obstacles need time to resolve Been living the best economic compromise unthinkable just last year

Comparisons and parallels with the past are once again hitting the timeline after being proven wrong just a year ago Apparently hard to understand different initial conditions make any of that completely useless even in front of similarities Dogma and cliché never get boring

While the market is pricing perfection and voices mount calling for a massive disaster in case something derail that conviction (say a hotter inflation print), remember there is always something between extremes and by definition that is the most likely scenario