Partner @BMWiVentures. Investing in software & industrial tech. Backed @xometry ($XMTR), @tekioncorp, @ridezum. Engineer & ex-tech inv banker. Views mine.
Mountain View, CA
Joined February 2016
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Could AI fears create the funding crisis investors fear?
An equity sell-off can feed into wider credit spreads. Higher borrowing costs make debt-funded AI projects less attractive, worsening growth expectations and feeding another sell-off.
A potential AI debt spiral—not an inevitable one. The vulnerability is dependence on fresh capital…
It also reminds me of @bgurley’s 2016 essay examining that dependence in unicorn financing. How far does the parallel extend to today’s AI build out? abovethecrowd.com/2016/04/21…
Alphabet lost ~$500B in one day, its worst since the 2004 IPO.
Search got the blame. The cash flow had the rest: -$9.1B FCF vs -$2.7B expected.
In June I called the $80B equity raise a pecking-order tell. I didn't call the day. I called the reason. Who climbs the ladder next?
In June I argued Alphabet's $80B equity raise was a pecking-order tell: firms reach for equity when internal cash runs out…
Q3 just graded it. Free cash flow: negative $9.1B. Through nine months of 2026, Alphabet's free cash flow is below zero.
The same week, AAA-rated Microsoft sold its first US bonds since 2017. One company is stepping onto the debt rung. The other already climbed past it.
Which hyperscaler is next to reach for equity??
Nobody has stated the Nvidia>Hugging Face strategic rationale this cleanly.
I’ve had the privilege of serving on the same board as @schreier and learning from him along the way. He is that rare investor who makes everyone around him better — patient, principled, and generous with what he knows. Any entrepreneur who has Bryan on their side is truly lucky! Also LOVE Ballast's mission, such a fresh perspective!
Starting Monday, I'll be full-time on Ballast.Org, a new company grounded in a simple idea: economic value creation and humanitarian impact can compound together. Ballast is a for-profit engine built to grow capital and fund nonprofits in perpetuity. We will build in the world beyond core tech, with an initial portfolio of businesses ranging from real estate to hospitality to industrials.
Impressive gravimetric density numbers from @estesenergy 🔋
@estesenergy engineering keeps knocking down milestones for our customers.
Magnus weighed in at 307.07 kg and discharged 69,111 Wh of energy (C/5 discharge at room temperature, 4.19v down to 2.50v).
225.06 Wh/kg from a liquid cooled, ruggedized, 3000 cycle capable, PPR, ASIL-D rated pack that is under certification to endure rail, marine, and automotive environments.
Crush-able. Crash-able. Drop-able. This is our floor for energy density with an automotive grade NCM cell. Class 8 truck cell raises the bar further.
Data below is publicly sourced, comment/DM if you have other useful datapoints applicable to this class of energy systems.
Baris Guzel retweeted
@estesenergy engineering keeps knocking down milestones for our customers.
Magnus weighed in at 307.07 kg and discharged 69,111 Wh of energy (C/5 discharge at room temperature, 4.19v down to 2.50v).
225.06 Wh/kg from a liquid cooled, ruggedized, 3000 cycle capable, PPR, ASIL-D rated pack that is under certification to endure rail, marine, and automotive environments.
Crush-able. Crash-able. Drop-able. This is our floor for energy density with an automotive grade NCM cell. Class 8 truck cell raises the bar further.
Data below is publicly sourced, comment/DM if you have other useful datapoints applicable to this class of energy systems.
Baris Guzel retweeted
The tremendous success of @ridezum is thanks to the authentic passion of an outstanding team led by @ritun, whom I'm thrilled to see recognized for all she's achieved.
Zum is proud to celebrate Founder & CEO @ritun, the #1 honoree in Innovation on Forbes’ 2026 50 Over 50 list and featured on the Innovation cover.
Congratulations to all of this year’s remarkable honorees who are challenging conventions, solving important problems and driving meaningful change.
Thank you to Forbes and Maggie McGrath for celebrating the women redefining what’s possible.
Baris Guzel retweeted
Ritu Narayan left eBay after struggling to find reliable transportation for her children.
Now, her school transportation startup Zum is valued at $1.7 billion, serves 5,000 schools nationwide and uses AI to make bus routes more efficient.
How she built “Uber for school buses”: forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgra…
📸: Cody Pickens for Forbes
#ForbesOver50
"Whether or not the revenues ever arrive, purchase commitments and signed leases can’t be canceled, for the most part.
If things go wrong, tech companies will be paying an expensive tab for infrastructure that they can’t profitably use. These obligations could also lead increasingly indebted companies to have to borrow even more."@pswsj @rudegeair @WSJ wsj.com/tech/ai/why-big-tech…
9/ The $80B is not the story. What it tells you is.
In a year: debt quadrupled, a 100-year bond, then $80B equity, with $866M paid to close it. And a wave of mega-raises lining up behind it that each top a full year of the IPO market.
Full breakdown 👇
xitter.gq/Bguzel/status/20621625…
“That’s why I started with 1870 and Cooke’s ill-fated agreement with Northern Pacific. Yes, the upside the deal afforded Cooke was incredible, but it was incredible for a reason: it was very risky, and pioneering new funding mechanisms only served to spread the pain when it all blew up. It’s one thing to spend all of your free cash flow; it’s another thing to tap the debt markets. And, beyond that, it’s a completely new nerve-racking thing to bring safety-seeking assets to bear. AI better deliver before it’s too late.” @benthompson
Nvidia’s Risky Business
Nvidia is finding new ways for its customers to raise money, and it's expanding the risk of the AI buildout significantly.
stratechery.com/2026/nvidias…
