BigNose (🌻🚜)

‼️Two very important things happened this week re Alumina from Ireland First, the EU Sanctions envoy confirmed that alumina from Ireland and therefore the EU was “undoubtedly” making its way to the Russian military production lines. Second, Rusal has signed a deal with Ghana to develop an alumina refinery in Ghana producing annually, a little over what Aughinish sends to Russia annually. The announcement referenced Aughinish’s 10% contribution to Russia’s alumina needs and the possibility of sanctions. I believe the first event signals the EU now expects to take measures against alumina exports. It may not be this package, but the confirmation commands a response and the talk of reducing exports on a scaled basis suggests something will happen. The second event, shows Russia too believes that Aughinish’s days are numbered and are scrambling to secure their alumina supply into the future. There is also the context of the current planning application from Rusal the caustic waste dump at Aughinish which is in turmoil. If planning isn’t granted - the site cannot continue beyond 2029. With both of these events and the planning context, there is now little reason for Ireland not to take action against alumina exports. If the EU is planning at acting at some point, and Russia is actively planning for a post-Aughinish reality, then prolonging the debacle domestically only serves to harm Ireland’s reputation. It needs to end.