Brandon Alexander

Q3´26 Preview: Could $CELH be setting up for a meaningful revenue beat? Wall Street is expecting roughly $800m in Q3 sales, but my estimates based on recent NielsenIQ data suggest revenue could be materially higher Let's break it down by brand: CELSIUS, Rockstar and Alani Nu 1/ The approach I'm using three inputs to build my Q3 revenue estimate: • NielsenIQ volume and pricing trends to estimate Alani Nu's growth • Management's Q2 earnings commentary to forecast the core CELSIUS brand • A relatively stable quarterly revenue assumption for Rockstar One important caveat: NielsenIQ tracks retail sales through measured U.S. channels, excluding certain channels such as e-commerce and international markets. Differences in channel coverage, distributor inventory movements, and promotional spending mean retail sales growth doesn't necessarily translate directly into reported revenue growth 2/ Starting with CELSIUS core In Q2 2026, the core CELSIUS brand generated approximately $387m in revenue, down 11.7% yoy Management indicated on the Q2 earnings call that Q3 scanner dollar sales should look similar to Q2. However, NielsenIQ data released since then points to further deterioration As an example, for the four weeks ending Sep 19, core volume declined 20% yoy. Even accounting for an estimated 9% increase in pricing/mix, implied retail dollar sales declined roughly 13% Given the weaker trends and ongoing inventory rebalancing, I'm taking a more cautious approach and assuming $365m in Q3 core revenue, down roughly 6% sequentially and 4% yoy 3/ Rockstar Energy This one's relatively straightforward Rockstar generated $66.5m in Q2 2026 and management emphasized stability following the completion of the brand's integration into the PepsiCo distribution system That is, I'm assuming a similar run rate in Q3 of $66m (-12% yoy estimated). Nothing particularly exciting here 4/ Alani Nu To estimate Q3 2026 revenue, I'm using the following NielsenIQ volume and pricing data: • 4 wks to Aug 8: volume +38% yoy (assuming +3.9% pricing) • 4 wks to Aug 22: volume +33%, pricing +3.9% • 4 wks to Sep 19: volume +74.3%, pricing −4.0% Note: NielsenIQ figures are based on overlapping four-week periods and do not cover the full quarter. To approximate Q3 growth, I've used the available observations as proxies for July, August and September, assuming similar trends for the missing weeks and +3.9% pricing for the first period. Compounding volume and pricing gives us implied retail dollar sales growth of +43%, +38%, and +67%, respectively The simple average comes to roughly +50% yoy. Alani generated $332m in revenue in Q3 2025. Applying that growth rate implies approximately $497m in Q3 2026 revenue But there's a catch. In Q2, the gap between Alani's reported revenue growth (+21%) and retail scanner sales growth (+55.7%) was almost 35 percentage points. Management cited the PepsiCo distribution transition, higher trade investments and billbacks, discontinued non-core SKUs, and customer order timing as contributing factors Some of these headwinds may ease in Q3, but I wouldn't assume they disappear entirely My base case for Q3 is therefore $450m in Alani revenue (+35.5% yoy), compared with the ~$497m estimate, implied by NielsenIQ This assumes a roughly 14.5pp gap between retail and reported revenue growth, narrowing from nearly 35pp in Q2 as some of the earlier headwinds fade. It's an assumption rather than a precise forecast, but one that leaves room for continued distributor and promotional pressures 5/ Putting the pieces together Using the adjusted Alani estimate: • CELSIUS core: $365m • Rockstar: $66m • Alani Nu: $450m (adjusted base) Implied Q3 group revenue: ~$880m implying 21% yoy growth 6/ Scenarios vs. Wall Street Putting everything together, my Q3 group revenue scenarios are: 🔹 Conservative: ~$830m (+14.5% yoy, +3.75% beat vs. consensus) 🔹 My adjusted base case: ~$880m (+21% yoy, +10% beat vs. consensus) 🔹 Direct Nielsen scenario: ~$930m (+28% yoy, +16% beat vs. consensus) With Wall Street consensus around $800m, even my conservative scenario implies potential upside Is Wall Street missing something? Not necessarily Q2 already demonstrated how wide the gap between retail demand and reported revenue can become. Still, Alani's recent volume acceleration is difficult to ignore With CELSIUS core and Rockstar assumed broadly stable sequentially, Alani remains the key variable My base case stands at ~$880m in Q3 revenue, roughly 10% above Wall Street's consensus, largely driven by Alani's strong retail momentum. Whether that upside materializes will depend on how much of Alani's retail growth translates into reported revenue