“O Brasil caiu na nossa polarização", diz Brian Winter, um dos maiores estudiosos do nosso país nos Estados Unidos, ao fazer um paralelo entre as eleições presidenciais de domingo e as chamadas 'midterms’ exame.com/mundo/o-brasil-cai…

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Time and again over the last 10 years, we've learned not to take polling too literally. But yes it does seem the Brazil race continues to narrow, with Datafolha showing a 50-50 race ahead of Sunday's 2nd round. What's happening? Lula and allies have "awakened" after losing the 1st round, running an effective digital campaign that increased Flávio Bolsonaro's negatives. (A piece of color: Lula said this week he just started carrying a smartphone for 1st time in his life -- truly.) Also, the power of a desperate incumbent: Lula announced a 15% increase in Bolsa Familia, and brought forward payment for October so it landed just before the runoff 🧐. Plus, usd $3 billion in debt forgiveness for small companies, $800 mi in fuel subsidies... The total cost of election-year "bondades" is now estimated at usd $59 billion by IFI, an org affiliated with Senate. The bottom line: The math still looks very tough for Lula. As we said after 1st round, he would have to pull majority of votes from 3rd party candidates (who were all right of center), turn out many who abstained and probably steal some Flávio votes too. As I keep saying, today's Brazil is on balance a center-right country. Many dispassionate observers still think Flávio has a lead of about 2% -- which remember in Brazil equals about 2 million people. Still, it's close -- and I go back to my original description of "apathetic polarization" for this 2026 race. It's superficially a 50-50 country, but you also have a large number of voters (a third?) who are not really inspired by either candidate, and some could conceivably switch in last days or even hours. The final 72 hours will see a crucial Friday night debate on TV Globo, another wave of scandal allegations (watch out for a Flávio video) and -- most important -- an absolute tidal wave of memes, fake news and AI slop on WhatsApp, etc, in one of the world's most terminally online countries (+9 hours a day on avg, according to one study). Flávio still a slight favorite, but not over yet.

NEW: Pessimism about Guatemalan President Arévalo's security policy was already worsening prior to Saturday's assassination of Juan Francisco Solórzano Foppa, a high-profile former prosecutor, writes @mirandamazarieg for AQ. The reverberations could spill into next year's elections, and possibly favor ANOTHER shift to the right in Latin America. More: americasquarterly.org/articl…

Is Latin America finally moving up the global high-tech value chain? Some remarkable numbers suggest the region is making progress. A few highlights from a fascinating new @AmerQuarterly piece in collaboration with JP Morgan Private Bank: • 🇲🇽 Mexico briefly overtook Taiwan as the largest supplier of advanced technology products to the U.S. in 2025. In the first half of 2026, its high-tech exports to the U.S. surged another 47% to $98.3 billion. The U.S. now gets 40% of its server imports from Mexico. • 🇧🇷 Brazil is emerging as a major hub for AI infrastructure. Already home to 218 data centers, the world's 11th-largest total, Brazil could see its capacity more than double by 2030. Its abundant renewable energy is a major competitive advantage. • 🇨🇷 Costa Rica offers a compelling model for moving beyond commodity exports. Medical devices already account for roughly 40% of its exports, and the country is now building a semiconductor industry through partnerships among universities, government and multinational companies. • 🇩🇴 The Dominican Republic is another country to watch. Its electronics exports grew 50% from 2018 to 2023, and its extensive free trade zone network could help it become a significant player in semiconductor assembly and testing. • 🌎 The bigger picture: Latin America's exports of information and communications technology services nearly DOUBLED from 2020 to 2024. The region has a real opportunity to capture more of the global AI boom—but sustained gains will depend on education, R&D, energy infrastructure and smart public policy. More from Nur Cristiani and Rich Brown in @AmerQuarterly: americasquarterly.org/articl…

Well, it seems this is the so-called “bomb” — the long-rumored piece of anti-Flávio kompromat that would land in the election’s final hours. It allegedly involves lobbyists, prostitutes and, why not, the COVID vaccine — published by Brazil’s equivalent of The New Yorker. (Flávio’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment, the magazine says) Enough by itself to change the dynamic? A resounding “NO” — believe me when I say long magazine articles are not what move voters in 2026. The revelations themselves… well, I will leave others to explain whether Brazilian voters, even Evangelical ones, would care. HOWEVER there is one scenario worth watching. The final debate is tomorrow. Lula will surely press Flávio to deny the report. Then, the question becomes: Is there video/images? (Flávio himself has alluded to this possibility, obliquely, during campaign — he knew something was coming). And then… in a tight election? Probably not, but Brazil: Never boring

We’ve lost one of the all-time great brasilianistas. Riordan Roett, for 45 years (!) a professor at SAIS and author of 25+ books, passed away on Saturday, the school confirms. His scholarship won him the the Order of Rio Branco (Brazil), the Order of Bernardo O’Higgins (Chile) and numerous other awards. He was known above all for his generosity with young people, including a woefully under-employed Texan journalist who wasn’t even his student, but whom he indulged anyway with a long coffee and chat about Brazil in his Washington DC office back in the mid-2000s — I’m sure countless others have similar stories. SAIS said plans for a memorial service are still being made. RIP Riordan Roett

Perfect

Acontece nos EUA, acontece no Brasil

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